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Boudrias

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Everything posted by Boudrias

  1. Both the Russians and Saudis took it on the chin yesterday just like everyone else in the markets. Their economies are tied to global investment beyond oil just like everyone else. I suspect what happened yesterday will drive them back to the table to reach some compromise. Does $40 or $50 oil work for American frackers? No it doesn’t. Producers who are market driven will have lenders running for the doors. USA producers and to a lesser extent Canadian producers will be hurt most on the surface.
  2. Pumping money into a failing system is not a solution. At some point it will lose credibility and confidence or what is left will be gone.
  3. I am not that knowledgeable about the natural gas business. I agree that NG pricing has been brutal for many years. Shell LNG in PR has to be duplicated many fold to create a healthy industry.
  4. RS you might have noticed you don’t hear much about the refinery Black Press was promoting in Rupert. They had Stockwell Day promoting it. I am sure it died a natural death because simple reality reared its head. You suggest that government build refineries to, I assume, assuage, those who think they are being ripped off by oil companies. In my career I was involved in the industry at the wholesale level. There were refineries sprinkled across the West, 4-5 on the Coast. They are gone for a reason. Western Canada consumption is primarily diesel driven. Industry, mining, agriculture etc. This produces surplus gas that had to go somewhere. No matter the price consumption of gas is inelastic. To solve this problem Canadian refineries had to export gas to the USA. Yes, much of that border gas bought in the USA comes from Canada. This was not a choice it had to be done to enable diesel fuel production. This reality then had to contend with the economics of scale. 10, 15 even 25K boe per day refineries are not economic. They were shut down. So Parkland at the coast does 50K and Shell, Essa and Suncor in Edmonton are doing 200K each +/-. There are a few co-op plants as well. I might be a tad out of date. When I was in the business we got very good at estimating sales to ensure as close to 100% production runs as possible. In the States jobbers have to sign minimum/maximum purchase contracts. In Western Canada that is done by the majors with add ons by independents. Very defined and accurate business and there is competition. If consumers want as competitve as possible gas costs then insist that dealers buy their product at rack pricing at selected load racks. Published rack pricing. Anything less is BS and your provincial government is heavily involved in the BS. BC consumers seem prepared to buy their gas at 40% more than AB. I can see why the industry would have no love for a province that has done such a low brow scam on them. That said I would look more closely at government taxation to find out why they pay what they do. By the way if the old Trans Mountain wasn’t there the cost of gas in Vancouver would be even higher.
  5. If AB isn’t already selling their oil at a discount to Canadians what do you call $13 Billion in equalization payments?
  6. It won’t stop. Hard to believe you cannot see the fundamental unfairness going on between east and West. It certainly is not restricted to Quebec. Rep by pop is a good start. As we enter this significant downturn the questions will get harder. The fat is gone and hard choices will be made. What happens when your hero, JT, can not borrow money anymore?
  7. So that’s the price for Canadian unity? Can the West get 50% of Churchill Falls. At least 50% of the maple syrup crop?
  8. The oil revenue as expressed in higher incomes comes from a finite resource owned by the people of AB not Canada as a whole. Nice scheme by the easterners to rip off a specific province. The fact that AB has stood for this all these years is not a credit to the provincial government. If it was Quebec who was contributing as much equalization would have been toast many years ago.
  9. I use a asset allocation sheet with the stocks I have in each sector marked down by % weighting. Then I extend out to get CF. I try to keep in perspective why I am in the stock and what it is paying me. Getting older so growth is not as big a deal as it was. I want 25% of my port in USA $. I tend to keep my USD stocks in technology and health as Canada is weak there. Capital gains in USA $ rather than dividends because of taxation. Northland has bonafide creed and not as much a gamble. I am happy with TRP and ENB. My oils are PXT, SGY and ARC. My play around money was Ivanhoe but sold at decent profit. Only one left is SDX which delisted and moved to LON exchange. Oil and gas in N.Africa. Down big time but will wait. Awful wordy sorry about that.
  10. Yup! I’m buying this morning. Trying to pull a Buffet. Would love to be in his war room this morning.
  11. Stop that. We have a world of ignorance being spewed here. To much fun. Being overly confident in what you don’t know is to much entertainment.
  12. Check how much urban transit tax and carbon tax you are paying on your $1.30 gas. No mistake that the NDP wouldn’t include taxation into their review of retail gas pricing.
  13. You and RS are dealing in extremes to make an argument when the reality won’t be like that. AB will retain their existin* borders and overflight will meet international standards. Military bases will be turned over to AB or leased to Canada. AB will cede any claim to assets in the ROC. The challenge will be convincing Albertans to make the leap and that means defining the issues and clarifying detail. As I said before all it will take is half a dozen MLA’s to leave Kenney’s caucus and cross the floor to Wexit. That would send shockwaves across Alberta and the West. This idea should not be taken lightly. Being talked about.
  14. Low margin export economy can work in a healthy global economy but is still short sighted. In a down world economy it is much worse, lower margins and even questionable access to markets as protectionism escalates. This is why IMO Canada should have a $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund instead of a $1 trillion debt. In a serious country this would be a national security issue. In Canada it doesn’t even warrant a debate. It is another reason why I think AB will separate and there won’t be that much fight about it.
  15. If it lasted for any length of time measured in months the consequences would be huge. Oil becomes secondary to debt crisis. Regime change. You know the drill on how internal crisis is deflected by external military adventurism. Instability breeds radicalism.
  16. The proof will be whether Albertans support independence and by all indicators they will. Mass persecution complex or a mass realization that what is happening to them cannot continue? Are they being deceived? It will become incumbent by Wexit to clearly point out the economic cost of being part of Canada and a realistic assessment of how the new country can move forward. An open discussion which itemizes issues so they can be understood. For example how much does AB leave on the table by allowing the bulk of their dairy production to Quebec. Dairy is significant as it is a critical building block in agri business. One example. Do all of them. IMO there is also a cultural distinction that does not get discussed much.
  17. The need for revenue will force the Russians and Saudis to a reconciliation. It it will make no dif who is at fault of a debt crisis takes hold. That said I do blame every Canadian government that has deficit spent. The accountability is coming home to roost. Canadian dependency on the USA economy and an economy that depends on resource exports. An economy largely based on being a price taker with low margins and yet a people who think they have the financial strength equal to Americans. The USA have far higher margins built into their economy. Canada deals from a position of weakness and has done little to change this for decades.
  18. Russia versus Saudi for leadership of OPEC. Russia is helping Syria against Saudi funded rebels in Syria. What a tangled weave. At the end of the day neither of these countries can afford 30/40/50 or even $60 oil. It is not about the cost of production but the financial need by these countries. Both are desperate for more money. They will come to some kind of agreement. Does this disruptiion speed up the inevitable debt crisis? Failing businesses begat more failing businesses. Defaulting mortgages, job loss, falling government revenue. It could make 2008 look mild in nature and duration. As a fiscal conservative I have expected this for many years and have been laughed at for suggesting such. To me the numbers don’t lie. When the guy on the street realizes his government cannot save him all hell will break out.
  19. Last I heard AB wasn’t claiming Trenton. Will St.Lawrence become a international seaway? Great Lakes? No suggestion that AB would divert the Columbia and Kootenay rivers into AB for irrigation.
  20. I don’t follow Columbus but I remember a couple years ago they came into town and physically dominated the Canucks for full 60 minutes. The Canucks were never in that game. I thought Columbus was on their way to contention. Canucks are not the same team but then CBJ aren’t either.
  21. If you remember the Irving’s wanted Western crude for Halifax but of course was told no by Quebec. Irving wanted to expand that refinery to 500k bone per day and that hasn’t happened. A lot of their production goes into the eastern USA. Parkland in BC puts out 50k bone and BC has to import refined product. The synergies between AB and BC in energy production will overcome the nutbar attitudes in Vancouver bistros. BC will join the rest of the West. AB just has to show the leadership.
  22. 6 under home quarantine and 1 cured here in Maui. As I said no one that worried.
  23. The only significant refinery outside of AB is in Halifax. Th3 rest are specialty and minor to overall demand.
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