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Boudrias

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Everything posted by Boudrias

  1. Prior to current situation world oil consumption was about 102 million boy per day. The decline rate was about 1.5% but that has a market component over and above the physical decline. The oil industry has suffered from a chronic lack of capital investment since 2015. This will lead to an accelerated depletion rate. I have to think the Saudis and Russians are going thru a fight over respective takes but they will reconcile. The biggest deal in the market is the Saudiis selling a big chunk of Aramco. It makes the industry more market driven. I am told Old the oil sands plants can run at $25 oil. Their capital has been spent. SU and CVE are highly FCF positive. USA shale ops are highly leveraged and have shown a faster decline rate than anticipated. AB has low decline rates, established oil infrastructure and diversification into poly. It is an industry with a future. Anyone who thinks AB cannot ride oil to independence is not recognizing reality. Another aspect to this whole independence thing is the broadening appeal to businesses not just inside th3 oil sector but across the board.
  2. Good to hear Smokes. Panic amping up as you are probably reading. I am in Maui and people are not that worried yet. Stay as safe as you can.
  3. This is sounding pretty desperate. When AB leaves along with other constituencies in the West the borders will be as is and airspace will conform to international standards. The ROC will have no claims inside those borders just as AB will have no claim to the urinals on Parliament Hill.
  4. All true except for the Americans. Their production is market driven. Their volumes would decline because of demand but also because their cost structures are too high. Lot of bankruptcy pending. I don’t see a long term decline in consumption as I have to hope the virus is beaten. IMHO the biggest issue is global debt and whether the virus starts a downward spiral that cannot be stopped. It could take decades to rebuild. Fear the debt and fear that democracy might be a victim. Scary times ahead.
  5. Some of that could be true. Just like every politician who will use the virus for a reason for failed policy they used. Easy. What options does Kennedy have but to cut spending? While oil prices drop and for how long. Pretty confident oil will recover as not economic at $40. Up to the Saudis and Russians. The good thing is that capital is already spent on the oil sands plants and Cenovus and Suncor are FCF generators. Heavy crude is popular in Texas as their refineries are geared to using it. Venezuela continues to crater.
  6. Hopefully all true. Credit and debt are such a confidence game. I doubt two weeks solves the problem. Many people and businesses do not have the means to survive much of a turn down. Combine this with preexisting debt and the snowball effect could be unstoppable.
  7. Separating will be a unhappy experience and will test the resolve of Albertans. I don’t think they will be alone as Saskatchewan will go too. The fake argument that sections of AB will be retained are bogus. AB has equity claim to assets throughout Canada that will be given up. The biggest issues will be debt and native relationships. The bright light there will likely be a willingness of a new national government in AB to actually create a shared future versus the exploitive past from Ottawa. Shared history. What are the the geopolitical realities of a independent West. I say West because an independent West will eventually mean all provinces west of Ontario. BC cannot survive physically separated from the east and I doubt most BC’ers would want to. A critical consideration would be the American reaction to a split Canada. Initially a negative until they measure the maturity of the idea and leadership. Ultimately the USA wants to dominate the agenda of the Americas and a divided Canada helps them. New security and trade relationships are all doable. I would support the immediate withdrawal of AB from the National Milk Marketing Board. This an idea thrown out by AB milk producers. Milk production is another one of those under the table internal trade deals that benefit eastern Canada in a major way. Western Canada is not even self sufficient in white milk let alone the more lucrative processed cheese and dairy products. This could be done by Kenny with the stroke of a pen. It would be a clear demonstration of how committed he is. If he is not the people should know so that they can get rid of him. He has to ask how many of his party members will cross the floor to a provincial Wexit party?
  8. My biggest fear is that the virus causes a full blown credit crisis. The world is awash in debt both personal and government. Most people do not have the resources for sustained layoffs or unemployment. Governments need tax revenue from economic activity to stay solvent. At some point governments will not be able to print more money without massive inflation. I thought we were a couple of years away from this last the virus might cause it now.
  9. I thought he was far better than mediocre. His coach had him out on the PP and PK. He was playing a solid defensive game, usually the 3rd high. He is a physical player which Vancouver needs more of l
  10. Is that for real? You can imagine the offers he has coming in. What Vancouver has pulled off over the past few years is top notch.
  11. What confuses me is the different Santa Claus suits. I mean they are all giving away candy!
  12. Unbelievable that $10’s of billions of projects in AB and Quebec get cancelled and a oh hum reaction rules. How many jobs lost and how many other projects have planning canceled. Ayn Rand becomes more relevant everyday. Bought all my kids Atlas Shrugged. Now there is someone who lived under communists.
  13. More like give them 5% off the top and send the kids to the Harvard Business School. Hard to fence bison or elk. They usually walk thru it. Seriously? Do away with Indian Affairs. Place that funding in a Trust and dispense it to elected band councils. Make the band councils produce audited annual statements. My buddy was on a committee created by the USA Native Chamber of Commerce and their job was to review business plans put forward by bands across the USA. They found about 20% had merit. Not a bad number. Indian Affairs is inherently racist. It’s track record is abysmal. Create the ability for bands to have role models that youth can emulate. In some cases that is as simple as a family with a bread winner that provides a stable home for their kids. Our local chief is doing not only that but is running several band owned businesses. He is changing the reserve environment. He has no use for Indian Affairs.
  14. Sid the range of $3 to $7 million increase is great news for Van. There is no mention of the ongoing negotiations for USA broadcast rights. I don’t watch American TV broadcasts but I believe ABC carries the NHL. In any event I had heard Bettman wants a significant increase that could translate into a $5 to $15 million increase per team. American broadcasting is desperate for content and sports is a big ticket item for them. Bidding war? Some suggestion that Bettman would regionalize the NHL offer to boost bidding. Fans generally don’t like this guy but from a business point of view he has done a great job. His last hurrah before retirement I think he hits a home run.
  15. Roussel’s likeability factor is off the charts. He has had a tough season and will not be part of the group that seriously contends for a Van Cup. That said he is a great team player and truly is out of the Burrows mould. Always a great interview.
  16. Love his speed down the middle. Superior puck handling. As good as Jake’s season has been Gaudette is right there on the ppg. This is in essence his rookie season. Next year will be his breakout. IMO he has 2C abilities.
  17. Sad to hear the Pocket Rocket passed. What a classy guy. I think the last Cup he won was legendary. Habs were losing the Cup finals and Al MacNeil sits the Pocket. After losing Game #5 the Pocket explodes in th3 dressing room and calls MacNeil the worst coach he had played for. Word was he slapped MacNeil across the face. Habs won the last two games with Richard scoring the Cup winner. MacNeil never coached in the NHL again. i met Richard in the Vancouver airport back in the ‘90’s. Looked great. I thanked him for the years of entertainment. He was very shy and obviously a quality person. RIP Join your teammates.
  18. Geez man you can go down to Fort Benton and go down the Mississippi! That’s how the NWMP got all their stuff.
  19. Nope. Not just Canada. It will be global.
  20. Don’t you think central bank balance sheets are a government ran Ponzi scheme?
  21. Does AB become another Montana without oil? Maybe but the oil will flow for another 30 years. That is not a lot of time and to a degree forces AB’s hand. Do they continue to shovel money eastward or take their destiny into their own hands. As I said no Albertan should have any delusions that easterners will give two craps about AB when the cash cow drys up. Some people seem seem to take comfort thinking the attitude in AB is isolated there. I suggest it exists across the West. Does that manifest into a real Wexit movement? To a large degree that likely is decided in AB. AB could be the focal point that drives a movement across the West. Kenney, the federalist, is not secure and he knows it. He draws out the process of addressing the grassroots at his political peril. He might get away with a separate police force and pension plan but I doubt that is enough. When people are hurting financially and see industry collapsing, their society collapsing, they will react. Wexit will be on the next provincial ballot and Kenney knows that. All the politics aside aside when the debt crisis hits Canada will not survive anyway. Scary times ahead.
  22. If Try can tighten up the d-zone it is as bid a deal as a high % FO center IMHO. He helps puck possession time. His ppg becomes less important.
  23. As long as politicians have the ability to deficit finance they and their appointees will never be accountable and hard decisions will never be made. What happens when people no longer buy government bonds? It is a huge confidence game and when institutions were bailed out in 2008 it had to do with maintaining confidence in the system. Devaluing currencies has been going on since.
  24. Yes they do. Incomes based on a finite resource that belongs to the people of AB. I understand your criticism of past AB governments spending and management. I am sure that if the oil industry was still healthy that the Wexit movement would not exist. I wouldn’t agree but most people, including Albertans simply want to live their lives. I have never agreed with equalization and I think Peter Lougheed caved into easterners. When all the oil is gone easterners will not give a crap about Alberta.
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