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Everything posted by Bad_BOI_pete
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The average save percentage in the league is about 0.91. 1 shot * 10= 10 *.91= .9 like i said its rudimentary calcs. i took the top 16 and bottom 16 teams for faceoff win% in ES , PP and PK and for each respective side came up with a average for shots, PP% PK% ES Goals, PP Goals and shorthanded goals. then i found the diffrence between the top and bottom for each Stat. That is how I came up with the faceoff factor. Each Stat is calced separately and to make sure the calculations were close I compared The Expected net shots Vs the expected Net goals and thats how I know the calculations are close within 2.5% of course there is room for error, but with over 4000 faceoffs that is a significant amount of data.
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I Couldn't sleep so I tried to come up with a rudimentary way to calculate what a faceoff win is worth. When i finished my calcs I compared the canucks vs the league in 2021/2022. My math for the faceoff factor seems to check out. Based on the Known of `10 shots = 0.9 goal. I calculated the best faceoff teams create 5 more shots on net each game. (5*82)*.9=36.9 goals. The total goals i Calculated from my Faceoff factor is 36. Thats only a 2.5 percent error, very close. Whats a faceoff win worth? ES is worth about about 1.5% of a goal and on special teams its worth about 4% of a goal. Almost 3X more valuable. Anyways on to the discussion, The canucks should have performed a lot better considering there faceoff numbers. This just proves that the Canucks have a long way to go. all situations shots PP PK Faceoff factor * net + 5/GP 1.50% 2.00% NHL average total 31.6 20.50% 79.40% canucks Total 32 23.50% 74.90% faceoff rank 6th 9th 17th Canucks actual rank 15th 9th 31st * The difference between the top 50% and worst 50% faceoff teams based on league averages. even strength Goals PP Goals For SH goals Against Faceoff Factor * 28 5 3 NHL Average Goals Net 0 48.8 48.8 Canucks Goals Net Plus 16 Total 58 Total 58 Faceoff rank 6th 9th 17th Canucks actual rank 15th 8th 27th * The difference between the top 50% and worst 50% faceoff teams based on league averages.
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I'd say we are one loss away from complete CDC meltdown. countless tank for bedard threads, fire coach, fire GM, fire everybody threads
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I think scratching your top star would be maybe the most moronic thing you could do. That move could really blow up in your face, especially with a emotional player like Miller. Let's not forget the infamous P.Roy Trade. Bench them for a little bit? Sure! I remember a time when Ovenchicken was benched quite often because his D game was lacking.
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[Discussion] Is it time to ask Bruce Boudreau to resign?
Bad_BOI_pete replied to AV.'s topic in Canucks Talk
AV should be banned for his use of the phrase "Hope this helps" Mocking people, calling them stupid, ridiculing them and inciting chaos are all very normal things for him to do. He won't get banned though, and I'm happy for that. I have my reason's and don't care to explain them. @AV. I bet you are a canucks fan. The fact that you deny you are a internet troll is absurd. Just admit it, you enjoy causing misery to your fellow CDC poster. -
(0-2-0) @ (1-2-0) 7.7 (25th) Power Play % 9.1 (24th) 55.6 (31st) Penalty Kill % 77.8 (19th) 52.0 (13th) Faceoff % 41.3 (29th) 2.5 (24th) GF/GP 2.33 (25th) 4.0 (26th) GA/GP 3.0 (18th) Top Scorers G A P G A P J.T. Miller 1 1 2 T.J Oshie 1 2 3 Brock Boeser 0 2 0 Conor Sheary 2 0 2 Elias Pettersson 1 0 0 Anthony Mantha 2 0 2 Projected Line Ups LW C RW Power Play VASILY PODKOLZIN J.T. MILLER CONOR GARLAND ANDREI KUZMENKO BO HORVAT ELIAS PETTERSSON TANNER PEARSON BO HORVAT BROCK BOESER J.T. MILLER QUINN HUGHES Penalty Kill 1 ANDREI KUZMENKO ELIAS PETTERSSON CURTIS LAZAR CURTIS LAZAR J.T. MILLER DAKOTA JOSHUA NILS AMAN NILS HOGLANDER OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON LUKE SCHENN DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS INJURIES QUINN HUGHES OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON JACK RATHBONE LUKE SCHENN KYLE BURROUGHS RILEY STILLMAN IRIR TYLER MYERS ILYA MIKHEYEV TRAVIS DEMOTT DTDIR TUCKER POOLMAN Projected Starter. Thatcher Demko (0-2-0) .873 SV% THATCHER DEMKO LW C RW Power Play ALEX OVECHKIN DYLAN STROME CONNOR BROWN MARCUS JOHANSSON DYLAN STROME T.J. OSHIE ANTHONY MANTHA ⚠ EVGENY KUZNETSOV T.J. OSHIE ALEX OVECHKIN JOHN CARLSON Penalty Kill 1 MARCUS JOHANSSON LARS ELLER ALIAKSEI PROTAS NIC DOWD CONOR SHEARY CONOR SHEARY NIC DOWD GARNET HATHAWAY TREVOR VAN RIEMSDYK NICK JENSEN DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS INJURIES MARTIN FEHERVARY DMITRI ORLOV ERIK GUSTAFSSON JOHN CARLSON NICK JENSEN TREVOR VAN RIEMSDYK IR IR NICKLAS BACKSTROM CARL HAGELIN DTD IR EVGENY KUZNETSOV TOM WILSON Projected Starter. Thatcher Demko (1-1-0) .902 SV% DARCY KUEMPER
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I think it's a good problem to have. There are so many scenario's where we come out with a huge win in this signing. Worst case scenarios: 1.Kuzmenko doesn't live up to the hype and we demote him. 2. He plays well and asks to get paid handsomely and we can't/wont re-sign him. Positive scenario's. 1. Kuzmenko plays great and helps us to get in the playoffs and beyond. 2. Kuzmenko plays great and isn't greedy and we re-sign him. 3 Kuzmenko plays great and the canucks don't and we trade him for a 1st at the deadline. 4. Kuzmenko plays great, canuck's don't. we re-sign him before trade deadline and trade someone else to clear cap. Honestly, the negative's are not consequential because we got him for free.
