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Everything posted by eeeeergh
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Agreed Guddy is a perfectly reasonable third pairing defenseman, but Benning's "eye test" projected him as a top-4 savior to our defensive woes, and was worth losing Jared McCann, a 2nd, and a 4th round pick for him. That's the problem with people who use the "eye test", they're clouded by their biases, and dont realize that they miss a ton of what the player is actually doing. Analytics tell a much more complete picture, and the best teams in the league rely much more heavily on them than preconceived notions of what a "winning" hockey team looks like.
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The numbers disagree with you - Hughes had a worse Goals against/60 minutes than Rielly (by a LOT). Rielly was in the top third in the league, while Hughes was at the very bottom. Hughes was also on the ice for 2 more high danger scoring chances against / 60 minutes than Hughes. Rielly was the better player defensively by far last year.
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I trust a JR retool much more than a Benning retool. Let's remember that Benning "retooled" by going after players that looked good even though their analytics suggested they were on terminal decline. Benning openly admitted that the person he disagreed with the most in the front office was their analytics guy. There's also advantages to a retool right now, you have OEL who's still serviceable in the top 4 (though obv not worth his 7m), Demko heavily discounted, Petey on a reasonable contract, Miller 4m/year discounted, Hughes 2m/year discounted. The question is will JR/PA be able to move enough of our bad value money out, and use our slower but still productive guys to get speedier to play Boudreau's style. I think they can. Good start moving Hamonic. Now they've gotta do Myers, Pearson, Dickinson. Then use Boeser to get faster, pick up a quality UFA, and snipe a european free agent that can play at a 3-4m value on an entry level contract.
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In fairness to those people, he's near the bottom of the league in terms of goals against and not great in limiting high danger scoring chances, but he's also deployed against opponents top lines AND he's not expected to give you top tier defense, he's expected to help you score more goals which is exactly what he does.
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I mean- we can disagree, but teams have followed that formula for a long time of a pure offensive defenseman partnered with a willie mitchell/tanev type defensive defenseman. That's what Hughes was until this season came around, and I didn't hear anyone arguing last season that Hughes didn't belong in the NHL. We can dispute whether Rielly is worth 7.5m/year, but with him on the ice, the Leafs outscore their opposition, he quarterbacks their powerplay, and is nearly a point per game. There's no world in which that's "not an NHL player". You just deploy him differently than you could a defenseman with a more balanced skillset.
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The Leafs gave him up because their left side is fully set with Muzzin, Reilly, Brodie, and Sandin. Their right side is worse than ours, but they get to use Gioradno for this year to try to make something happen. Yes, Dermott can play both sides, but its almost always better to play a defenseman on their strong side. Dermott is a perfectly fine bottom pairing LHD with potential to be more, with good defensive analytics, and a cheap contract.
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He's got great defensive analytics, and is a significant improvement over Hunt on the left side in his own zone. He can skate backwards really well, and doesn't get walked very often. Hamonic has bad analytics, hasn't been particularly useful to us on the PK, was a terrible match for Hughes, and Myers has been better with OEL than Hamonic. Plus Hamonic missed most of the season with us, and makes double of Dermott's salary. Dermott is also young enough to have potential to keep getting better, Hamonic on the other hand, is on the decline. It's not a gamechanging move, but it improves our bottom pair, and frees up some money to upgrade elsewhere too.
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Yeah I actually agree with this 100%. Plus, Dermott seems to have been the victim of "eye tests" but has actually been really really good analytically. Benning made trades and acquisitions in the opposite way- going by eye test and ignoring analytics and it went absolutely fcking horrendous for us. Kinda happy to see the Canucks taking this approach. Canucks D got younger, cheaper, faster, and better with this move.
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The main issue I have with Poolman is how he will singlehandedly ruin offensive zone chances by putting the puck in the absolute wrong spot, or trying to stickhandle and losing it 9 times out of 10 I haven't found him too bad in his own zone, he blocks shots and seems to know where to be and gets the puck up to his forwards pretty fast
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Alright so I did all the math With Poolman back off LTIR, and assuming we resign Boeser at 6.5m, less than his QO, and Motte for 2m, and Highmore and Uhaul at 1m, and a couple of warm bodies at league minimum, our total cap hit will be about 77m, incl. all penalties, Halak's bonus, etc. 4.5m cap space to add skill/speed and upgrade 2 of our RHD to top-4? No chance. I think JR/PA are just getting started