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Everything posted by Millerdraft
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Then take a step back. If Boston wants to overpay, then so be it. There are other options to explore like Alex Pieterangelo, Cernak and circling back to Tanev if the ask is not commensurate with the restrictive position they’re in due to the NMC. Arizona finds itself where if the Canucks and Bruins land alternatives? Another year ahead in an even further cap strapped league? The price is only going to go down with all those factors restricting trade partners.
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We didn’t accumulate enough draft picks during the “rebuild” years for this to be a decade long window like Tampa opened. Even if we had had years of drafting with six picks in the first three rounds, there’s no guarantee our scouts would’ve grabbed the gems like Brayden Point and it’s pointless to debate that route now because this is where we’re at. We’re not picking in the top-10 anymore. Those days are over for the next five years at least so we need to maximize Bo Horvat’s prime years before we waste them away and that should be the focus.
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Another topic not being discussed in this debate: How important is Bo Horvat to our aspirations of ending this 50 year Cup drought? Because he has three years left on that deal at which point a decision will have to be made on where he’s at as age 28/29 and where our only powerforward is at as age 30. Realistically we only have a 3-5 year window before Bo starts producing at an elite third line centre as opposed to borderline 1st line centre and we have to make a decision on how much we can afford to pay Miller. We could be in a position whereby we need an entire 2nd line. Meanwhile we’ll be happy that we didn’t take a shot at the Cup with a legit Norris calibre top-4 because we’ll at least have cap room to... ?
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The concern of the “albatross” of term ending at age 35 is a bit of an over reaction, IMO. Tampa Has MacDonaugh locked up ‘til 35 as is Herman. Vegas has Schmidt locked up ‘til 34/35. St Louis has Faulk tied up ‘til 35. Duncan Keith had high end numbers from ages 30-35 including a 50pt+ season at age 34/35, IIRC. Those are just off the top of my head since they’re fresh in my mind coming off the playoffs.
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If this goes down, watch out for a Flames fans-Bouwmeester type blowback in our market. “He’s not Scott Niedermayer!! He was supposed to be Scott Niedermayer!!” Then he moves on and wins a Cup in St Louis because Armstrong understood what he was and what he wasn’t. I do find it interesting that some of the voices that are most against this particular move are also staunch Benning defenders. If Bennington is in fact more than kicking tires on OEL, why do you think that is? Someone is going to have to fill Edler’s skates when Edler becomes more of a top-end third pairing guy because of Father Time.
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Another question people aren’t asking: Is it reasonable to go into a Cup contending window without a fallback solution if Hughes goes down to injury for a series in a playoff run?
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I’m surprised no one has brought up Brian Burke trading for Chris Pronger the summer after signing Scott Niedermayer since he was recently on the airwaves discussing just this. Basically, his point was that the Ducks management team & coaching staff had a concerted debate about whether or not the Ducks were one piece away from being a top Cup challenger. People are rightly concerned about the long term salary cap ramifications of these deals but in some ways that is obfuscating the whole point of NHL hockey. Our window to win a Cup is not going to be open as long as the Tampa Bay window has been open. We don’t have the same quantity of mid to late round draft finds. Our window is more based on the Horvat, Miller, Boeser contracts. Two to three more years after which there will need to be a retooling. Trading Boeser in a package for OEL makes no sense in that regard because it takes away from our window. Having Boeser and OEL adds to our window. Personally, I’d much rather try and sign Pieterangelo and dump Eriksson (with the overused “sweetener” phrase) than give up all the extra pieces that would be required to acquire OEL. It’d be cheaper to dump Eriksson on Ottawa for a Staal-Detroit type of compensation.
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[Rumour] Alex Pietrangelo to test free agency
Millerdraft replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
This is also reminiscent of the all-in cap gamble the Blackhawks took landing Hossa to that huge contract. They needed that Selke caliber winger to maximize the talent they already had even though they knew they’d pay for it cap-wise in the latter half of the deal. Pieterangelo is the perfect partner for Hughes. This is our chance! -
[Rumour] Alex Pietrangelo to test free agency
Millerdraft replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It’s kinda reminiscent of Boston landing Chara back in ‘06/‘07, imo. Hopefully Benning can pull it off -
[Rumour] Alex Pietrangelo to test free agency
Millerdraft replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
There ya go. Lock up Gaudette to a Calle Jarnkrok deal like the Preds did awhile back and this team would be set. -
[Rumour] Alex Pietrangelo to test free agency
Millerdraft replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
This is Benning’s chance to officially open a Cup window -
^ Yeah, that's why we get people screaming "bust!" at 20-year olds.
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Yeah, obviously I see the exact opposite re Virtanen and Ehlers/Yakupov. All three have the skating to do it but Virtanen also has the power game to be able to do it (fight through heavy checking), and Ehlers/Yakupov don't (just my opinion - obviously YMMV). Oh, and I never changed my primary point regarding adjusting style of play, nor my secondary point that injuries often lead to adjusted styles of play, nor my opinion that smaller players are more likely to suffer injuries playing a contact sport with bigger players than bigger players playing a contact sport with same sized players. You just finally realized there was an entire picture, not just one quadrant. Many things can lead to adjusting play style; injuries, lack of success doing what you've always done, league/conference defensive/offensive coaching systems, rink size, size/speed of the competition you face, etc. Yes, likelihood of injury is a big concern (Hall & RNH have started tasting that bitter pill - Yakupov much less so) but it's not the entire picture I was painting even though I do believe a guy like Virtanen is much less likely to break down physically in the West than a smaller, leaner guy like Ehlers. We're just gonna have to agree to disagree. You think smaller, skill players are at no more risk of failure to translate to NHL success (or likelihood of injuries) than bigger players with bite and I disagree with that. As to your point about Ritchie getting Cooke'd, I do have concerns about his injury history, and he could Kyle Beach on us (which is why I'm torn on him/Virtanen), but I also think he has the best chance of being that total nightmare package for opposition teams to deal with we ought to be looking for (size, skill, toughness 20-25g 35-55pts 100PIM). The only thing missing in his game is top end speed (first step is good, imo) and that kind of total package is much more rare of a commodity around the league since I just don't see Ehlers becoming one of those rare 30-40g, 60-80pt guys like Kane/Duchene (I see a 15-25g 35-55pt guy against NHL defensive systems). Until we have a few guys that possess that size/skill/toughness package and actually pan out as top-six forwards (Kassian looks close), I say we keep drafting them. Then again, I am more interested in next year's pure skill guys than this year's so maybe that's intensifying my dislike of Ehlers/Nylander. I'm hoping to add that pure skill guy next year, when the talent level is higher and bust quotient is much lower, not this year when I'm really not all that excited about any of this top-10. What little I've seen of Ehlers has left me thinking, "Yeah... that's not gonna work against NHL players, let alone the West." Obviously you see something along those lines when it comes to Virtanen (if not Ritchie). We're just gonna have to disagree on the entirety of this subject.
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Agreed on that front but I'm not sure why suggesting a 50-60pt shutdown centre like Kesler, a three-time Selke nominee and a one time winner, as low end in comparison to Bergeron being high end, is accurate. There isn't a big separation there. Low end ought to be much lower than a Kesler. More like Adam Henrique.
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It's not "magic" to predict future concussions if Skinner doesn't adjust his style of play because he's already been on the receiving end of them playing the style he's playing at that height. That will shorten a career everytime. If he does change his style, it's not a slam dunk that he'll cease being effective. He has the hockey IQ to still have an effective career playing a style more like Ray Whitney, but not every player can adjust to the change. Yakupov's problems aren't solely a coaching/deployment issue, Smasshian, and injury issues are not my primary point. Adjusting style of play to enable career longevity and success is my primary point. Yakupov is used to carrying the puck and skating through entire teams. He's been doing it his whole life but that certainly doesn't work here in the West and it's actually a selfish style of game. He's had to adapt to this and he's pouted. He's been benched, and scratched, because of piss poor attitude and zero effort backchecks. Soon after came the rumours. Why were there leaks that he wanted a trade? Because Edmonton sucks and wouldn't reward lazy play without the puck? Why only hear rumours about him being disgruntled? Why not Eberle, or Hall or RNH? There's many issues with Yakupov and adjusting his playing style to suit the NHL game is right at the top.
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Yeah, that was so bizarre. The one guy even recognized Bergeron was the ceiling, not floor, but simultaneously thought 60pts was a step below Patrice. How long before people here start calling BoHo a bust because he hasn't hit 50pt seasons in the NHL? One, two years?
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Yeah, Hemsky did alright there for awhile too before he had to become a perimetre player to survive in this league. He put up 331pts in a 360gp span from '05/'06 until '10/'11. Skinner appears headed in the same direction (unless you think multiple concussions are NBD). Okay, you don't like the Hemsky comparison. Fine (even though others see it). Guess who else had scouts saying "reminiscent of Bure/Kane skating/playstyle"? Nail Yakupov. Everything being said about Ehlers now was being said about Yakupov in 2012.
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Are you guys kidding me?! That's high end 1st line production and coming in a shutdown role to boot?! Come on... There are "technically" only ninety 1st line forwards in the NHL (three 1st liners x 30 teams) and Bobby Ryan was #90 w/ 48pts. Sixteen of the 30 teams make the playoffs so let's say anything below playoff calibre is typically not high end. That's "technically" 48 "high end" first line forwards. The #48 scoring forward in the league was Lucic (tied with Palat & Zucarello-Aasen) at 59pts. Let's lower the expectations just a tad, okay? Please?!
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Injuries aren't the only reason although I can see why you're tunnel visioning my point (since Raymond, Hemsky and Skinner have been hit with them), and since you get stuck on Raymond's lesser talent package take a look at Yakupov (who by all accounts had amazing speed, skill, hockey IQ, edge etc). His NHL game is nothing even similar to his Junior style of play. Now, what would Nail be able to do in the East? Free freakin' wheel.
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There seems to be a problem with reading comprehension going on in this thread. I'm not comparing Ehler's skating, hockey IQ, vision, shot, grit, edge, etc with Raymond's skating, hockey IQ, vision, shot, grit, edge, etc. Not at all. I'm saying the fearless style a player plays with early on doesn't always stick around. It happened to Hemsky in the past as well, and it's happening to Yakupov (a guy who was all around the dirty areas in Jr) right now. There's two more examples of style change, one directly related to injury - one perhaps not. That's why I brought up Raymond, not because I think Raymond and Ehlers are comparable players (in terms of skillsets etc), since I don't think their talent levels are comparable at all, but because I do think smaller players have to make adjustments more often than not if they want to have long NHL careers. The same thing will soon happen to Jeff Skinner or his career is gonna get cut short (he gets caught in the head a lot - which is surprising since he has very good on ice vision and high hockey IQ).
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The lessons learned began with the knee injury in '08 which he obviously shrugged off as a freak accident: Then came a a broken thumb in December 2010 and a shoulder injury in March 2011 (just before the 2011 run). One of these two injuries came from cutting into the middle (iirc) and there is no doubt his offensive production took a dive after those two incidents, as well as the back injury. This article sums up the before/after versions of Raymond (although I do take issue with him saying it had nothing to do with where he went on the ice as I believe where you are on the ice without the puck has a direct correlation to puck possession).
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Yeah, the Lucic comparison is a poor one, imo. Ritchie will never get to that level of league wide intimidation but he does have much smoother hands when it comes to puck skills.
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So at worst he'll have a career average of 22g 31a 53pts/82gp and 900gp in the NHL? 40g 85pts is actually equal to, if not better than, Kane and not a poor man's Bure. That's just slightly below Bure unless you mean 40/85 is a career high year and not seasonal average. Bure averaged 51g 90pts. No wonder people are perpetually prematurely calling players busts (or at the opposite end of the spectrum Hodgson = Yzerman) around here. Talk about over-hyping...
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I suggest you go back on Centre Ice and watch some of the 2009-2010 season when he put up 25g 53pts.
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No, I was not talking about hockey IQ. As I said in the post, Raymond initially would frequently go to the slot/net front areas but after suffering several injuries had to play a more perimetre game. There was no direct comparison other than being forced into playing more of a perimetre game (something that Ehlers does not do in the QMJHL by most accounts). If Ehlers skates around with the shiftiness of Patrick Kane, he'll likely get away with it. But even then, Kane was lucky to not have been half the player he is had he not gotten his head up in the nick of time when Edler nearly altered the course of his entire career.