TGokou
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I personally enjoyed his takes and articles. He will be sorely missed..very tragic.
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If Juolevi hadn't gotten injured the 2 times not only would he have made the team already he'd be playing in the top 4.
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Taking a look at his scoring this season agains NCAA opponents he had 14 goals and 5 assists in 17 games which is good for 1.12 ppg. What's interesting is that he was held off the scoresheet for the first few games of the season before he picked it up later on as the season went on. I'm guessing there was a learning curve that Caufield had to take against bigger opponents. What I'm unsure about is if he was drafted by us and we got to the playoffs, would he be rubbed out by bigger competition once things got more physical and the interference starts happening at regular intervals. As you can tell from my post I am completely lost on how to evaluate such a player. I think he will be really good regular season contributor and 'maybe' an effective playoff contributor?
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I think so too. As much as people like to defend him for certain reasons you just can't make up enough excuses for his lack of production. If he was so offensively talented he would've shown it in production, either at the MHL, VHL or u18 level and I just don't see it. Yes he had a few good tournaments but that's about it. Combined with the always present 'russian' factor and I can see a scenario where he falls out of the top 10.
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Seider is one of these interesting prospects that probably doesn't get taken before 13-14th but could drop as far as end of 1st round. It really depends on what teams think of his offensive potential because that's what gets you drafted 1st half of 1st round vs latter half. Personally I think he has a lot of offensive potential and deserves to be drafted mid 1st half but if scouts aren't sold then it'll be latter half for him.
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Thanks for your informative post Wolfgang. However the only wrinkle I want to throw in is that it seems like a lot of the older players transfer from Allvenskan to DEL, typically in the late 20s and mid 30s where they also experience a "rejuvenation" of scoring. This is the only thing I can say that goes against the fact that the DEL is a better league than Allvenskan. If it is because of a different style of play then I can totally get that. As for Seider only playing 12 min a game my point was only to state that his point totals don't necessarily reflect what his production could be if he played more significant minutes. If we do draft him I hope that team can bump up his minutes next year or else it may be beneficial to bring him over to North America.
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Seider had 2 assists last game in the DEL playoff final Game 4, which puts him at 5 pts in 13 playoff games .(38ppg) which is an improvement over his regular season 6 pts in 29 games. Furthermore, he is averaging only around 12 min. per game which is a lot less ice time than a lot of draft eligible defensemen are getting. Prorated to an average of 18 min. per game he would be getting anywhere between .39 - .57 ppg this season. He also rarely gets PP time and so does not have any stat inflation either from the PP. I did some research and found the Allvenskan and DEL leagues to be fairly comparable although DEL do score at a slightly higher pace than Allvenskan. I based this on players who transferred either from DEL to Allvenskan or from Allvenskan to DEL the following year. Most of these players are in their late 20's or early 30's so there should be no improvement from a skills perspective at that age. In conjunction with hiw WJC-20 D1A tournament where he had 1 G 6 A in 5 games it tells me he actually has a lot of offensive potential waiting to be tapped. As mentioned in another post, if he were placed into the OHL this season he would most likely have anywhere between .7 - 1 ppg based on my projections.
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Been doing some looking on eliteprospects. Here are the 2nd round prospects that I find most intriguing and may be available in our wheelhouse. Vladislav Kolyachonok - Plays for the Flint Firebirds, one of the worst teams in the OHL but still produced a respectable 29 points in 53G. Still only 17 years old but a good 6'2'' 181lbs L shot defenseman. Also raising his draft stock playing for Belarus where he has 5 points in 4 games. I think he has a lot of potential and more offense to give next year. Jackson LaCombe - Plays for Shattuck St. Marys Highschool Prep where he has 89 points in 54 G. He is a 6'1'' 172lb L shot defenseman. He was a forward until they switched him to defense a few years ago and it's worked out well for him. Currently committed to University of Minnesota. His production is extremely good even for his league and he should do well at Minnesota because of it. His production actually has him very comparable to Jack Rathbone in his draft year but with a 3 inch size difference on him. Nathan Legare - Plays for Baie-Comeau Drakkar of QMJHL where he has 87 points in 68 games. Of those, he has 45 goals. 6'0'' 201 lbs RW. I like him least out of these three but I think any of these players would be a good choice in the 2nd round.
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I'm not sure why people are so high on Rees. 5'10'' forward with pedestrian numbers. Just because he's having a good tournament shouldn't make him jump that much. There have been many players with better numbers in the u18 tournament who don't amount to anything so I definitely wouldn't let a tournament affect where they are positioned. If anything the tournament only helps to affirm where you have that player. Jump up a few spots sure but not an entire round.
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IMO he will be a player in the NHL so the chance of busting is really low. Question is whether he will be a a tweener 10 goal scorer or 40 goal scorer. I feel like a player that scores at a ppg has to at least be a 20 goal scorer in the NHL so that would set his floor. I'm not sure how effective he will be defensively so I can't comment on that aspect. More realistically he will be anywhere between 25-30 goals and that's fine by me. I don't see him as a play driver and he will benefit from having an excellent passer to help put him into prime scoring areas. If he has added grit factor then I'm definitely sold on him. As for the playoffs, having him on a line with Pettersson and Boeser would be a pretty soft line and he would probably fit better on a line with Horvat. Ideally I would like to see a tenacious speed checker type of player to fill out that top line.
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You know I was actually thinking the same thing. However I was thinking more around if he drops to 6th and still not picked. I was thinking 10th + Gaudette + 3rd (2019). Thinking that might get it done?
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That's a pretty "Meh" quote to me. How about something like "After my contract is up of course I'd like to go to the NHL, the best go there" or something of the sort. Do you expect him to come out and say "No I don't really want to go to North America" for it to be a meh quote? Of course quotes can be taken completely out of context so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. However he better have better quotes to give during the interview process or else GMs might be turned off.
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SIGN UP / SIG Podkolzin focused on task at hand, not the NHL Hampus Duvefelt ÖRNSKÖLDSVIK, SWEDEN — Vasili Podkolzin saw the play develop and seemed to know exactly what to do. Even if no one else did. The 17-year old Russian winger is not known to be a player that likes to hesitate for long, usually acting on instict while letting his natual abilities take over. His assist against USA – the 2019 draft-eligible wingers first point of the U18 Worlds – was a prime example. With a somewhat surprising 1-0 lead already in the books, Podkolzin and his linemates from Team Russia charged up the ice on an odd-man rush. Goaltender Spencer Knight made the save on the initial play but Podkolzin had already sniffed out a scoring chance and wasn’t about to let it go. The puck stopped to the right of the goal, below the goal line. Podkolzin used both speed and power to jostle for position and beat his defender to the puck. In one fluid motion, he spun around and sent a high-velocity pass across the ice to the other side of the goal, past a Knight scrambling to figure out what was going on. The puck appeared to be headed nowhere in particular… until Rodion Amirov showed up and tapped it into a very empty net. Invisible to everyone, except Podkolzin. But as USA quickly turned the game around, eventually beating the Russians 6-3, Podkolzin stayed quiet and off the scoresheet – putting his total at one assist through three games. It wasn’t for a lack of trying though. The Russian captain hounded the puck and made several attempts to push the pace and create scoring chances. But the Americans played him hard, often foregoing the puck in order to hit Podkolzin. After a while, the physical play seemed to have gotten to him as he seemed to quietly fade away as the clock on the scoreboard ticked down. While Podkolzin has failed to make his mark on the scoresheet, he’s been very noticeable defensively, often acting as a fail-safe for his forechecking linemates. The Russian captain has also seen quite a bit of time on the penalty kill, often using his size and strength to out-muscle the opposition and clear the puck. All of this is to say, Podkolzin hasn’t had a bad tournament. In fact, the times he has been noticeable its usually been by making a good play or a smart read. That said, is it fair to ask for more offensive production from Podkolzin? Many would say so. As a projected top-5 pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, he’s been – and will be – under a lot more scrutiny than many of the other players in the tournament. So when EP Rinkside asks him through a translator if the slow start has him frustrated or feeling pressure, he just shrugs his shoulders. He’s used to handling it. “Not really. Basically, the master plan is to get a win in every game we participate in. It’s not really important who scores the goals. This team has a lot of talented guys who can contribute and score points. I don’t feel any pressure at all.” Fair enough, but the Russian team do need him to be at his best as the team takes on Sweden in the final game of the group stage. The winner will claim the second seed in Group B, pitting them against either Belarus (!) or, more likely, the Czech Republic. A BRIGHT FUTURE – BUT NO NHL ANY TIME SOON Few will dispute the notion that Podkolzin has the talent to make the National Hockey League, and soon. He’s a highly touted hockey prospect for a reason. His size, power and raw skill should have many a NHL general manager salivating. But regardless of when he’s drafted or what team will secure the rights to the winger, he won’t play in the NHL for the 2019-20 season. Or 2020-21 for that matter. At least not if you ask him. “My contract with [current team] SKA St. Petersburg is for two more years. I will play that and then we will see. I don’t waste time thinking too much about it.” By the sound of it, he’s not too worried about when he’ll be drafted either. “I don’t read any news stories or anything like that. I haven’t had contact with anybody [in the NHL]. I just go about my business and do my job. My job is to work hard here and win this tournament.” Yup he is definitely falling to at least 8 spot possibly just outside top 10.
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I was on board too but just prior to the selection everyone was drooling over Nichuskin falling to us then we were like "Whaaat??" However in response to the other poster he did fall from about 4-5 spot if I remember correctly. In the end it worked out for us amazingly well.
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*Ahem* Bo Horvat....Nichuskin was ranked much higher and everyone was in a tizzy because we drafted Horvat over the big russian.
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Adam Fox choosing not to sign with Calgary or Carolina has nothing to do with business or opportunity imo. He just wants to go to the team he wants to and that's completely in his right. It is just my thought but I believe that majority of players who don't sign with their teams has nothing to do with business...maybe opportunity. You think teams want to give up their valuable assets for free? They will get the business side done if it was just about money. A person's dream to play for the NHL team of your choice is a huge factor but in some instances I believe it could be bad blood behind the scenes that we don't know about. That's why I brought up the way the team treats the player.
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It's called trade value. The other players got a return from the other team. When a player on your team bolts for the KHL you get nothing. Not comparable at all.
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Based on Woo's numbers, last year after his draft it looked like he had about a 40% chance of being an NHL regular. Based on his numbers this season it looks like he's raised his own ceiling and his likelyhood of being an NHLer. Based on statistical projections he has maybe 25-35% chance of being a 1st line NHLer and about 60% chance of being an NHLer. As for Korczak I like him even less than Thompson. Based on statistical models he has maybe 18% chance of making the NHL with maximum 2nd pairing upside. I am basing this primarily on offensive statistics based on age and this does not take into account defensive prowess. Offensive statistics are THE key indicator of how well a D man will project as a #1 defensive pairing. If you want a defensive specialist you can draft those in the later rounds or sign them as free agents AFTER they've had several seasons of pro/NCAA hockey as you will have a better indication of how well they will fare against better competition. EDIT: I'm going to apologize for crapping on those picks because I don't have anyone to suggest in that spot that would be a suitable replacement in the 2nd round. Also there will definitely be some things that my model doesn't pick up such as Tyler Madden last year. However I strongly believe that in this case it has more to do with the fact that he was such a lightweight for his height there was guaranteed to be some statistical improvement the following year. Jett Woo would've been a good pick based on my statistical model last year.
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Mainly that he sticks with the team that drafted him. Canucks have been very patient with him and have treated him and his family well from what I can tell. They have a very good support network for kids with autism and I feel like that's something Rathbone would want to be a part of.
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I don't think we will need to. I know a lot of people are high on Lassi Thomson but he doesn't project to be anything more than 2nd or 3rd pairing defenseman. Personally I think he deserves to go late second based on my prediction of his upside. If you have a high second pick we should be swinging for the fences and Thomson is not that guy imo. Seider is currently playing in the DEL playoff finale against Red Bull Munich. They are currently down one game but playing again today. I wonder if any Canucks scouts are there to watch... I think you are right about this fact of the playoffs. Skill wins you games in the regular season. It is the combination of grit/size/heart that will still determine your playoff success. This fact has never changed over the years. I am not against drafting Caufield as he will be a good one but the scouting staff better be prepared to see if he will disappear when the going gets tough and physical.
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Even if he decides to stay four years he seems like a good kid who will honor his agreement with the Canucks.
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I think he will be ready to turn pro by next year if he has another improvement on his season. On the other hand the reason I see him staying in Harvard another year (two more years) is to be close to his bro with autism.
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I think 10 is 'probably' early to pick Seider but it really depends on what the scouting staff feels his future potential is. While trading back is a possibility there is the outside chance that Seider could slip to 20. The reason I say this is because the german leagues are not very well scouted and it's very hard to compare to other leagues. Also he's had two shoulder injuries in the past year which usually drops you in the rankings. I am very high on him myself and if he does slip to 20 I would be calling on the draft floor to see what kind of package it would take to move up into the late 1st round. Most teams in the late 1st round will be looking at retooling or adding to their roster and if you give them a piece that's tantalizing enough it may be worth the trade. Perhaps a Ben Hutton + your 2nd? I personally feel that's pretty good value for a team wanting to trade and we will likely need to move a D man anyways in the offseason.
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I am slightly afraid of Caufield. Not even because of his height although it is a concern but rather because if you look at a guy like Kieffer Bellows a few years back he had a lot of goals, something like 50 in 62 and he's way bigger than Caufield. He was playing with Clayton Keller and although he racked up a lot of goals was severely lacking in the playmaking category. Right now he is not looking too good as a prospect. Edit: Sorry forgot to mention when your playing with guys as talented as Jack Hughes your bound to get your goals so the question is how inflated his totals are because of Hughes.
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No matter what anyone says Kaliyev he definitely has talent. You don't score 1.5 ppg in your draft year as a 17 yr old without being exceptionally talented and as such he does have a really high ceiling. The problem I see is that the concerns that surround him lead him to possibly having a regression/stagnation in next years numbers which would severely cap his ultimate ceiling. I think that's what most scouts are concerned about it. Either way it'd be criminal for him to be selected any later than 20.