TGokou
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Haha that's pretty funny actually
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So is it confirmed he's playing tonight? Taking my 5 yr old son to the game tonight and I only mentioned Quinn Hughes #43 once and he took to it like a fat kid on candy. Already his favorite player apparently lol.
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Thanks for your analysis! I agree that Caufield will be a great player in this league but I really don't see him going that high. I swear if he were only 2 inches taller he'd go top 5 but there is always a show me first mentality with the league when it comes to under-sized players. That's why Gaudreau and Debrincat went so late even though talent wise they should've been in the top 10 (not so much Gaudreau in his draft year). I think earliest Caufield will go is 7 but knowing GMs, they probably won't touch him until at least 10. Kaliyev is a great talent for sure based on his numbers but there's been a lot of talk about how he is too much of a perimeter player and scouts don't think he will change. For that reason I don't see kaliyev as a top 10 pick in his draft.
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Personally I wouldn't take him until the late 2nd - early 3rd round. I am not a huge fan of drafting D-men who have an early birthday unless they have already shown something super special in their draft year (ie. Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard). . I can't comment on his defensive skills but his numbers don't particularly stand out for an offensive D-man. I've done the research in past years and D-men who are drafted with an early birthday (September, October, November, December birthdays) have a huge statistical disadvantage of making it to the NHL. Rather go with a D-man that has a June, July, August birthday who maybe hasn't shown as much offense yet but could have a huge bump in their D+1 year. (aka Jett Woo).
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If we somehow end up drafting 9th-10th I feel we would still be getting a really good player. The thing I like about this draft is that I don't see as clear cut of a development path for a lot of these players. I feel any player from 3-12 has the potential to be 3rd-4th best player in the draft with a huge upside and that's what makes this draft somewhat more intriguing than others. Personally my guy in the 3rd-7th range would be Byram but of the forwards I feel they can be interchangeable depending on need.
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Haha I didn't catch it either...
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While I can agree with most of what you have on the list, I can't seem Krebs going that high personally. He hasn't produced outstanding numbers, he doesn't have size to make up for it and he's not a late birthday. I also think you have Turcotte criminally underrated. He has to be in the top 10 conversation. I also personally don't see Podkolzin going before 6.
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The poster you quoted had a good well thought out post unlike yours. No need to be a jerk.
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The thing with Olli is that he WAS projecting just fine. Maybe not #1 D man like we had all hoped when he was drafted. At this point he is most likely a 3rd or 4th defenseman on your second pairing. Noone could have predicted the injuries that he had so in hindsight we can make any statements we want. Without the injuries he would've been playing even possibly as soon as last season and probably projecting as #2 D man. Nothing we can do about it now except pray he doesn't have any more big injuries. I think his hockey iq and offensive instincts won't let him down when he gets back into it, more a matter of conditioning
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I dont know if Caufield will get selected in the top 10. I highly suspect he will not because of his size. He will be a great pickup in the 10-15 range and surefire 16-20. I think he will complement Horvat extremely well but may play on Petterssons line as a skill line.
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I'm no scout but based on a few clips it seems like he has some deception in his skating and good edgework but his top end speed is only decent. Either he was at the end of a shift or he just doesn't have that speed yet. Not too concerned though because he can work at that.
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My guess is Caufield or Soderstrom. I would be super happy with either pick.
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Turcotte isn't listed because he didn't play the minimum games threshold but if he did he'd be #1 on the list. He's my guy if Byram and the big two are off the board.
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To be honest I'm not sure if I see Lockwood as anymore than a 3rd line winger. His point totals don't strike me as a player that will make a big difference in the long run. Either way, whether he signs or doesn't sign no big loss imo.
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I've been thinking about this for a while now. I've been a big Benning supporter up until this point but I think I've been giving him too much credit. I feel that draft success has less to do with a GM than it has to do with scouting staff. It's not like Benning goes out and looks at Adam Gaudette prior to his draft. It is completely in the hands of Judd Bracket and his scouting team. They just tell Benning who to draft and he trusts them. Sure he may have had some input early on in his tenure as to how he wants his scouting staff to be run and for that I will give him credit, however most of his 'successes' are attributed to his drafting and NOT his trading and signing which he is directly involved in. In that sense his trading and signings have been atrotious. He may have made some decent trades but he'd go and follow that up by making an equally bad trade to lose the asset. His free agent signings have been complete failures. I mean I'm not expecting his signings to live up to the full value of their contract but you have to get a least 2-3 good years out of them. Most of them you haven't even gotten one good year out of them. Linden was completely right in his assessment. The Canucks are just not ready to compete.
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I'll have to agree with your assessment here. Pretty spot on. As much as people might have Podkolzin rated #3 by most draft lists, I have a hard time believing GMs will select him that high because of A. The Russian Factor B. Sounds like he's committed to staying in Russia until he can make a team out of camp (no AHL for him). He reminds me too much of Nichuskin who I believe at the draft was rated in the top 5 but fell to 10(or 11th?). Therefore I see him being selected 6th at the earliest.
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Oh man some of these are really nice goals. Silky hands and patience by Byram
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Not holding my breath.
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He will sign. You know he'll sign. He'll sign with a bruised ankle...he will sign!
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I wouldn't say the list is super long but his progression is definitely very encouraging and his comparables have done fairly well. I just did a quick search from 2012-2016 for CHL defensemen. Basically based on his production in his D+1 year you can expect him to hit 25-35 points in his early 20s. I would say the success ratio is decent, probably around 50% with him being a second pairing defender. He has an outside chance of hitting 40 points in the NHL if he continues this progression into next year and hits approximately 1.2 ppg (72 pts in 60 games would do it). If he remains steady at his ppg pace or slightly below his ceiling probably drops to about 20-30 pts in the NHL in his early 20s. Points wise he's had a similar point trajectory as Travis Sanheim but also keep in mind he was a mid 1st round pick so his skill was probably rated higher at the time.
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I'm not sure why you all want Madden to make the jump next year. It's still going to be a huge jump from NCAA to AHL and the guys probably still not even 165lb soaking wet. Let the guy develop in the NCAA and some build muscle and dominate, the way Gaudette did, next year. With all the bad press about kids not getting AHL playing time in Utica, what makes you think Madden can just step in and demand top line minutes? He will absolutely be much better playing one more year in NCAA. This is not a race to get him to the NHL. If he's good enough by next year, maybe he makes the jump to NHL and bypasses the AHL but for now, let the guy develop!
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I've never really liked the CHL as a development league. There are way too many good leagues now that give players a better development path for their D+1 and D+2 seasons. Here is my reasoning. If a player is a really good player in the CHL to begin with, in the D+1 and D+2 years they will be competing against players a year or two younger than them. In addition there is not much to improve upon, particularly if you are a power forward. Power forwards can just power through kids with speed or size or both. Look at Jake Virtanen for example, I feel that if he were an NCAA player he would've developed far more than going the WHL route. As a defenceman the same holds true as systems plays are not as developed as professional leagues, and it's also easier to defend against younger players vs men. The only time I feel it's worth to draft a CHL player is if they are so good they can step into the NHL right away or if they are projected to be a 1st/2nd round player but are drafted in the 2nd/3rd round. This usually means they do have room for improvement and can take that next step at a good level for them. I am really starting to come around to the NCAA as a development league, even with the fear of losing players to free agency. It has the perfect balance of competition for aspiring D+1 and D+2 players, whether you are a skill forward, power forward, defenceman OR goalie. It is not too tough like the SHL where many players don't get the required ice time, and it's not too easy where the players stall in development. It is no wonder the Canucks keep going back to this well as they've appeared to have a ton of success in recent and past years. Umberger, Kesler, Bieksa, Stecher, Boeser, Gaudette, Hughes, Madden....how many people have they drafted from the CHL with really good success? Edler? I know I'm missing some (not including top 10 picks like Virtanen, Hodgson and Horvat) but overall it's really bare.
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Haha, Benning probably tipped his hand. He's so transparent, luckily it's worked for them the last few drafts.
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I might be mistaken but doesn't he need to play one more year of Junior?
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If Canucks finish just outside of playoffs or even get knocked out in the first round I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Ville Heinola, Finnish D-man had 6 points in 23 games in the Liiga. 5'1'' 176 lbs. He got injured during the WJC but should be back mid February. I have a feeling he will be one of the biggest risers. I predict anywhere between 15-25 for him depending on how strong he finishes.