TGokou
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Everything posted by TGokou
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I think you guys are missing the point here...regardless there were better players to be had at that spot.
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If you look at his 2016 draft rankings, his expertise really shines. He had Juolevi as 9 behind Sergachev. Dropped Alex Nylander down to 10. Dropped Chrychun to 17 when most had him in the top 10. Raised McAvoy up to 16 when he was ranked in the 20's. Had Debrincat at 21. Had Carter Hart at 24 and Samuel Girard at 27 (The last three all drafted in the late 2nd round).
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I only made the point because we can't discount what Button says just because it goes against the grain of the majority. We all laughed Button out of the building when he said Virtanen was ranked in his 2nd round and now he is looking like a genius for it.
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Personally I don't get this comment by Benning, because in reality most D-man drafted in the 1st round your hoping for a top pairing guy. Also the statistics don't lie, 25% of all D-men from 2007-2015 from pick 10-20 are 1st pairing D-men. Also the underlying stats for all of the aforementioned D-men seem to suggest they all have decent potential of becoming top 2 D-men. Perhaps Benning was keeping his cards tight, or he simply doesn't want to raise expectations and say he projects so and so to be a top pairing D-man when in reality he will end up being a 2nd pairing defenseman. As for Boldy I wouldn't be against it but I think with the value of C over W you can always draft the C and put him on W if needed. Interestingly, Cory Pronmans rankings just came up and he had Kirby Dach as #10 because Cole Caufield, Broberg, and Boldy were ranked ahead of Dach. If that happens I'd be ecstatic that Dach fell to us.
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I'm not sure you can call it a joke that Podkolzin is ranked low. As was stated, Virtanen who was firmly in the top 10 by almost all scouts was put all the way into the 2nd round by Button. Clearly he saw something we didn't. Also it's unlikely that Button made it all the way out to the Russian leagues to scout so all he had to rely on were tournaments that Podkolzin participated in. I'm sure he won't be the only way to drop Podkolzin out of the top 10 when they all him top 3 all season long.
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Almost every position is still a priority (aside from goal) so I would still pick BPA. You can always trade or sign for need later. As for drafting a D man in 1st vs 2nd round the stats from 2007-2015 suggest you get a 1st pairing defenseman about 25% of the time (if drafting between 10-20) while in the second round it falls to about 2-6%. Personally I feel that percentage can be bumped up to about 33% if you exclude early birthdates and eliminate defenseman who have not shown decent offensive production in their draft year. Luckily all the defenseman rated in our range have shown offensive chops and also are not early birthdays so I feel any of Broberg, Harley, Seider, Soderstrom, Heinola will all be good bets to hit their potential.
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Here is a Moritz Seider article that just came out from EPrinkside: ROBENHYMER: Moritz Seider Flying Under the Radar at Worlds; Just How He Likes It Julie Robenhymer Columnist BRATISLAVA, Slovakia — With all the attention around Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko at the 2019 IIHF World Championship taking place in Slovakia this month, there’s another top prospect that will be selected in the upcoming NHL Draft happily flying under the radar. Moritz Seider of Germany is ranked No. 6 among European skaters by NHL Central Scouting and will likely be selected in the Top 20 on June 21st at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, maybe even higher. The Elite Prospects Top 93 Skaters in the NHL Entry Draft ranking had Seider as the 17th-best prospect for their April rankings. “I like that they are here. It takes a lot of pressure away from me,” the 18-year-old right-shot defenseman Seider said with a big smile. “Those guys challenging each other is great. They are unbelievable players. They’re so skilled and they put on a show every single night. They deserve the spotlight, but I am happy to be just playing hockey.” ‘Just playing hockey’ is quite the understatement as the 6-foot-4, 200-pound Mannheim native continues to turn heads with every shift, including those of his teammates with the national team. “He plays way older than 18,” stated Korbinian Holzer, who has spent the past nine years playing in North America, most recently for the Anaheim Ducks. “He’s a really good player. Very smart, very humble. He isn’t afraid to join the offensive rush, plays a solid game and looks very comfortable out there.” Germany’s head coach Toni Soderholm said Seider has more potential than most players his age and credits his ability to rise to a challenge and adapt quickly to the next level to his success both at the pro level with Mannheim of the DEL this year and with the national team at the world championship. “If you see where Moritz started at this year to where he is now, he’s improved pretty quick,” Soderholm said. “He’s very mature. He works hard. He’s got good vision. He’s calm with the puck, sometimes a little bit too calm. He reads the gap of when to play quick and when to be more patient. I think he’s only going to get stronger. He seems very confident and he seems very committed. There’s no hesitation. He’s going to be a real good player.” Seider considers himself to be a smart two-way defenseman who loves to join the rush and play in the offensive zone, has a good first pass and likes to play the body too. He’s doing his best to not only showcase those skills against some of the best players in the world, but utilize them to help Team Germany remain undefeated in the preliminary round. “It’s such a great thing to be part of the national team,” he said. “I think every little kid who plays hockey thinks about that. So, I’m very proud to be part of it. It’s been an unreal season for me. It was my first pro hockey season and we won the championship and now I’m with the national team. I’m just happy. “I want to get better every day,” Seider continued. “And, this is a perfect opportunity to get better and play with some of the best players in the world. It’s a challenge for me right now, but one that I want to accept. I mean, you watch guys like Draisaitl and Kahun in the NHL and now you’re sitting right next to them. It’s crazy.” Seider, who has two goals so far in the tournament, said his biggest takeaway at this point is that you can’t cheat anymore. The talent level is too high and you have to be strong positionally. But according to Soderholm, it’s that kind of self-assessment and work ethic that will help him go far. “He has a work first attitude and he’s so confident, not only in what he can do, but in what he can learn to do,” the coach explained. “We weren’t sure a few months ago if he would be ready to play here, but he’s worked on a lot of things and improved a lot in a short amount of time. He’s just so diligent with his work and I hope it gets noticed by more people because if he can keep that kind of confidence and play that way and practice that way at the next level, his potential is limitless. “I actually think that’s one of his best attributes,” Soderholm continued. “He gets better every day.” As Seider prepares for the rest of the tournament, he’s also preparing for the next step in his career with humility of someone flying low under the radar. “I want to learn as much as possible while I am here,” he said. “Not everyone gets this opportunity to be here, especially at this point in their careers, and I want to make the most of it. I want to play in the NHL. So, I just want to elevate my game, every day, step by step and hopefully, I will get there.” Also, after a lot of deliberating I believe I have my go-to #2nd round pick assuming he is still available at #40. Of course I still reserve the right to change my mind any time before the draft lol. Nicholas Robertson LW, of the Peterborough Petes 55 points 27G 28A in 54 games 5'9'' 168lbs Has excellent passing ability and is a feisty hard-working forward that isn't afraid to go to the dirty areas. Plays beyond his size. Perhaps most importantly he is also one of the youngest draft-eligibles with a Sep 11th birthday which gives him plenty of time to develop. Apparently his skating is below average, and is probably the one thing he has to work on the most but I also believe if he improves this one aspect of his game he can become a dominant player in the NHL. 19 of his points were on the PP which means he didn't primarily generate all his points with the man-advantage. His brother, drafted in 2017, Jason Robertson led the OHL in scoring this season with 117 points in 62 games but he also has a 6'2'' frame. If we are lucky, Nicholas will also gain a couple inches post-draft as once again he is one of the youngest draft-eligibles.
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I believe Byram will be a #1 D. His offensive stats are amazing and generally when you score that much as a d man whether you are D or D+1 you are already half way there. There are #1 D that don't even play defense that effectively but I think Byrams defensive game is pretty good...still young and still needs more work but he will get there. His hockey IQ is off the charts and he has all the physical tools to give him that edge at the pro level.
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Personally I don't see why they would bother wasting a pick on a low-upside, 'possible' 3rd pairing defenseman. I mean truthfully you can sign those guys out of any league if that's what you want. Always go for high upside pick, that way even your 2% chance of hitting a home run has a better statistical probability.
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I personally wouldn't mind Seider at 200-215lbs pure muscle mass vs getting to 220-230lbs as is typical of a person his size. With the importance of skating these days, I think having that extra edge in speed is more important to his game than the ability to go for a punishing hit.
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I am contemplating paying subscription for a website that allows you watch prospects in some select games. At least it will give me a better idea of how he is as a player with and without the puck.
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Same here, I am looking to how he performs against the powerhouses. He looked really good jumping into the rush for his second goal of the tournament against France and even showed some hands. I noticed his straight away speed was quite good which allowed him to pull away from the forward but he also had a couple steps on him to begin with. I personally think his offense is quite good and is not strictly the defensive defenseman that others have been labeling him as. If he is selected by the Canucks I think he should spend one more year in the DEL before coming over as this will help his offensive development playing in a relatively high scoring league (for a professional league).
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My pick for #40 is Vladislav Kolyachonok, a 6'2'' L shot D man playing for Flint Firebirds in the OHL. 29 points in 53 games but has a lot of room to grow into his frame as he is only 181 lbs right now. Late birthday and could be a second round steal imo.
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Seider also received player of the game.
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Personally Im confident that kaliyev won't be a bust. Goldobin had a 1.4 ppg average in his draft season AND was a early birthday born in October. Kaliyev is practically a full year younger than Goldobin was and put up 1.52 ppg average this season. He also had a higher goal scoring rate than Goldobin. Even if kaliyev doesn't put out his full effort every night like Goldobin I see Kaliyev's floor as 2nd line winger....he's just too talented.
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In hindsight there are 2 major factors that I feel you could tell he might be a bust and it has nothing to do with his size. First was that he was a fairly early birthday, being much older than his peers. He had a great 16 year old season as you already mentioned and if he had built on that I would probably have no qualms selecting him where he was. However, he actually regressed in his draft season which imo is a big big BIG red flag. Noone should regress in their draft season compared to their D-1 season unless you had a major injury. Even if you had worse teammates you should be able to improve on your season a minimum of 20-30% year over year (this is the average improvement based on my calculations).
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We've actually discussed a lot about him but yes he is very mysterious. Personally he probably doesn't deserve to be in consideration anywhere from 10-13 but after that he could go 14-30.
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I'm pretty sure I've already heard it being mentioned once or twice but I'll give my opinion on the matter as well. Drafting russians is not the deciding factor where you say automatic no to a player but there has to be some 'concern' over it regardless of whether it's publically stated or not. I know it's been mentioned that you can say other european players go back to europe so what's the difference? The difference is the level of commitment to reach the NHL imo. Whereas other european players have no qualms about trying couple years in AHL before making the NHL most russians want to stay in KHL until they make it. This is primarily due to the money they make in the KHL as well as familiarity. In my mind this also decreases the potential trade value of a player as soon they are drafted. Similarly, 'most' russians who can't make it in the NHL right away have no desire to be in the AHL and so teams are 'forced' by hand to keep them in the NHL line up to the detriment of their development if they are not skilled enough. Lastly if they don't have the success they envisioned there is an immediate fall back option of going back to the KHL where they are wanted. I just want to preface by saying that this is not the case with all russians as there are the ones that genuinely make it with a bang right away. There are also players like Nikolay Goldobin who although haven't had a promising start are willing to put in the time to give it a fair shake and I can definitely respect that. Goldobin however came over to the OHL prior to his draft season and so we can infer his commitment to the North American game prior to him being drafted. Most russians who came over from the KHL who were in his position would've bolted by now. With Podkolzin I see a slight lack of maturity in his interview where he inferred that he was not ready by his own admission to move out of his own comfort zone of leaving Russia and already that is a giant red flag. Committing to his KHL contract is not a big deal as most KHL players spend a couple years before coming over. However, will his maturity level get better and if he doesn't succeed in the NHL right away, will he be willing to put in the time to hone his game at the NA level?
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Alf doesn't wear Rose coloured glasses. His eyes are fused with rose coloured contacts and he can't ever take them off.
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I think this year will be even more all over the map because 5-12 are basically interchangeable for the most part. If I were you I'd select 3-4 of "your guys" or you might not have a "guy" when we select at 10 ;-)
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Generally speaking anyone that was passed over tends to have a much much lower ceiling than most of the first time draft eligibles. That is also why early birthdays (Sept-Dec) tend to not make the NHL as frequently as late birthdays. This is a blanket statement but generally true percentage wise. Brett Leason is a player that is projected to go 1st or 2nd round as a D+2 eligible. Even with his ridiculous amounts of points it doesn't mean much in the context of being a 20 year player vs 16-18 year olds. However it is noted that he has really worked on his skating which was his biggest knock on him and the scouts want to make sure he can play at a high level once he moves on to higher leagues. I'm not sure I would waste a 1st on him even if it was a late as I don't believe his future potential is that high although his floor is likely 4th line player. Basically if you were to draft a D+1 or D+2 you'd want near assurance that he will be player for you and I would'n't draft him sooner than late 2nd round or later. Jonah Gadjovich is also a player who was drafted as as a D+1 and even though he had a ridiculous OHL season he hasn't been able to put it together in the AHL so far.
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You can take it as you will. What I implied by that comment is that if you pair him up with a d man like Hughes you can have best of both worlds. Excellent defense and a puck moving defenseman on the same pairing.
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No I didn't say that. First of all, as is the case with many young players entering a professional league, they don't get the ice time or pp time and many times they just want to make the safe play which is to play good defensively first. This is the case with Seider, barely any pp time and very low ice time. Against his peers he's shown that he can help generate offence and he was dominant to lead his team to gold in the wj-u20 d1 championship.
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I don't agree with this. He had shown really good offense playing with his peers and he has decided to stick back and play the team game with the pros. While he is not nearly as dynamic as his peers and can't generate offense the way they do I believe he has enough offensive talent to get you 30 pts a season which is fine for a top line or second line pairing as long as you have enough elite talent to pair him up with. As long as he's not slow (he isn't) and can get the puck out of his own zone quickly (he can) he can be an effective top line pairing guy if his potential pans out. Also with a 6'4 frame I'm sure he will be able to bring the puck once his man strength comes in. Would I take him at 10? Probably not ..but could be one of the biggest risers in a redraft down the road.
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Yup I was high on him for the second round and this just confirms he is who I want in the 2nd