HKSR
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Everything posted by HKSR
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Yup, Kotkaniemi did.
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Just an FYI, Johnny Hockey will be 29 years 2 months old when he plays his first regular season game with his new contract. Nearly 1.5 years younger than Miller will be, and Gaudreau has much higher offensive numbers. Gaudreau will set the bar, but Miller will get less in term and dollars.
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To be fair, he already is... that's why I want him lol
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[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Getzlaf signed that deal on Mar 8 2013, which made him 27. He would have played his first game on the new contract in October 2013, which means he was 28 years 5 months old. Miller will be 30 years 7 months old when he plays his first game under a new contract. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
He won't get 8 years. I can almost guarantee that. It would be an absolute shocker as it would be 1 of only a handful handed out to 30yo+ players in the past 10 to 15 years. None of them in the ballpark of dollars that Miller is looking at. -
Y'know what would cap it off for fans to really call him a Canuck legend? If he takes a solid discount on his new contract with us
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A proposal to finish up the week lol TRADE #1 To OTT: Boeser 2022 1st Round Pick To VAN: Zub 2022 1st Round Pick OTT receive Boeser. A consistent 20 to 30 goal man, potentially 35+ in his prime. Canucks get Zub. A very solid minute munching defensive defenceman with great underlying defensive numbers, but they also get to move up into the top 10 for the upcoming draft. Hopefully where someone like Jiricek is still available. TRADE #2 To CLB/DAL/other: Myers To VAN: 3rd Round Pick Columbus and Dallas first came to mind as teams that could a RHD like Myers to replace Jones/Klingberg. Canucks get a 3rd round pick (seems to be the standard for cap dumping defencemen that are capable defenders). Zub replaces Myers. Now to the projections and other moves... Assuming the cap goes up by $1M per year for the next 3 years, then a very conservative $2M per year after that (after escrow taken care of in 2024-25)... $9.25M x 6 for Miller $7M x 8 for Horvat (Canuck for life!) $10M x 8 for Petey Poolman traded while retaining $600k for a bag of pucks. At a $1.9M cap hit for a serviceable RHD, he's moveable. Sign Lyubushkin at $3M x 5 -- defensive defenceman for OEL to finally play offensively Sign Niederreiter or other Top 6 (Nichuskin?) for $5.5M-ish x 5 Keeping the UFA signings to 5 years, so when Petey and Hughes hit their prime, there's flexibility on what we wanna do then. TONS of cap flexibility with these moves, and I think we improve overall. Miller's extension will end right around Petey and Hughes prime, and as you can see, there would be MILLIONS upon MILLIONS to work with to improve the team then. Niederreiter-Petey-Podkolzin Garland-Miller-Dickinson/Chiasson? Pearson-Bo-Hoglander Highmore-Lamikko-Lockwood Hughes-Zub OEL-Lyubushkin Dermott-Schenn/Burroughs This is all assuming we have no prospects ever entering the roster lol. At some point, we'll have ELCs and young guys moving up. Especially if we move up in this draft. Thinking Karlsson, Rathbone, Woo, and others will come along. They will help fill in the bottom 6 and bottom defence pair (or 7th D). For example, I feel that Woo could eventually replace Lyubushkin. There's just so much cap space to work with and this roster is likely better than this year's team. All while keeping Miller at $9.25M and re-signing Petey to a massive $80M deal.
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From Ottawa's perspective, how highly rated is Zub? Would there be something possible around Boeser for Zub?
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Miller's camp asks for $60M Canucks go with $50M Settles at $55M. Right around the ballpark in my original post. $55M over 6 years is $9.2M.
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[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It would be really ironic if Matthews left Toronto to go home to Arizona, the same way Tavares left NY to go home to Toronto. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
And that's why I'd have no issues with a 6 year deal for Miller. As I've mentioned, there's almost 0% chance that he will be getting a 7 or 8 year deal anywhere. History has proven that it pretty much never happens for a guy starting his final contract at 30yo+. If Miller signs here for 6 years @ +/- $9M, it takes him right into the meat of Hughes and Petey's prime. Either 1 of 2 things will happen then: 1. Miller is still as productive as ever, in which case we're good to go. 2. Miller's production drops off -- buy out his final year, or trade him (lot easier to do in the final year of his contract) Either way, we'll be fine with a 6 year deal. In fact, it's almost ideal. We have a bit of a window opening now, and that window can continue into Hughes and Petey's prime years. We're looking at a decade of competitive hockey, and multiple shots in the playoffs. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Hey Alf, why do you conclude that JR has a history of signing longer terms? I mean, who wouldn't sign Crosby, Malkin, and Letang to max terms through their prime? Guentzel only got a 5 year deal, and he's arguably their best up and coming player. -
If it does go 8 years, it'll have to be in the mid to low $7M range. I'd be ok with that too. When the cap is up in the mid $90s or low $100M range, $7Mish as a cap hit % would be very manageable.
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Yes! We are on the exact same page! Ideally it'd be a 5 year deal, but I think the mountain that Miller's camp will die on is making it 6 years. It's the security of a longer term deal. Structure like you said would be heavily bonus laden. Take a look at Zib's contract structure, it's exactly what we're talking about. $1M base salary and the rest of it is bonuses. That brings him to 36. If he's still good at 37 or 38, he could make another $4M to $5M for each of those years, then call it a career. This is a fair situation for everyone. It's just a dollar value that needs to be worked out. I still think $50M to $55M will be where it ends up at.
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I. GET. THAT. I know it's overall dollars. That's why if you look at my original post, I work off of overall dollars, then break it down to number of years. But since these 7 or 8 year deals don't happen at this age, I settled at 6 years. About $56M for 6 years. He makes $54 to $56M in 6 years, then if he's still effective at 37 and 38, he can grab a couple more 1 year deals @ $5M or $6M per. That's $10 to $12M more to his total earnings in 8 total years. Total earnings of $64 to $68M if that's what he's going for. What you're proposing is not gonna happen. $65M??? That's almost $11M AAV for 6 years at the age of 30. NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN. Bottomline is if he wants to stay, they will find a deal. Clearly after his most recent interview, he's committed to Vancouver. Like I said, 6 years at +/- $9M is a very fair deal that is in line with historical contracts. Both he, and the Canucks assume some risk, which is what makes it fair.
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Not gonna happen. You can try to explain your point til you're blue in the face, but the fact is in over a decade, not a single contract of that size has been handed out to a 30yo+ player, no matter how good he is. No GM or team will hand a 7 or 8 year deal to a player where he finishes up at close to 39 years of age. Owners have a say in this too. You think an owner would give the green light to such a reckless deal? Just because YOU have been saying he's gonna sign a $65M deal, doesn't make it fact. The comparables that you and others refer to are Hertl and Zib. I've already told you that they are younger by 2 and 1 years respectively. For some reason, you just ignore that and assume Miller will just get the same deal and end his career at nearly 39 years of age. The experts including guys like Ian Mac, Sat, Seravelli, and Friedman have all been on 650 and they've all come to the ballpark of $50 to $55M as where it will likely end up. I'll be perfectly willing to admit I was wrong if/when Miller signs a massive deal with a total of $60M to $65M. I can go on the record here and say he will likely re-sign for 6 years at +/- $9M AAV. Makes him one of the highest cap hit players in the entire NHL (top 25).
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[Report] Dustin Brown announces retirement
HKSR replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
On your team = Love him Not on your team = Hate him Can't argue he didn't have a successful career though. -
Yeah, that's really where I think it'll land too. Will be interesting when we do see the final numbers
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Again... personal opinion. However, I do agree in this instance that Miller will get more, and will get more term. Why? Because Miller is a better player and he's also almost 2 years younger. Doesn't mean Miller will get $8.5 or $9 for 8 years though.
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Yeah... my gut says a 5 year deal. He'll probably push for $45M and land at something a bit lower. So $8.xx AAV. That puts the bar at around $9M AAV for Miller should he get a 6 year deal. That's my thought anyways.
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Realistically, Nazem Kadri will set the bar for Miller's new deal. He'll be signed shortly after or on July 1st. So we will have a good idea after that.