HKSR
Members-
Posts
8,542 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Everything posted by HKSR
-
I'm going off this: https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator
-
I'll check it out when I get back to the office. Might be a glitch with my phone and the website.
-
How so? They all talk about 39.x % tax. Gavin Group shows 31.x%
-
I did look at it. There's no way the tax rate is 31.xx% in Tampa when the federal rate is 37%. That's 6% difference.
-
https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/fun-facts/taxes-for-the-highest-paid-athletes/L4azI6Bje Written and reviewed by CPA. Gavin Groups numbers are not right, at least not in 2022.
-
Could be old data.
-
It's not accurate info, so I don't think you can draw that conclusion. Like I said, the Gavin Group numbers are way off. The taxes should be at a minimum, the highest tax bracket for federal taxes. So 37%.
-
The Gavin Group rates can't be right. The taxes shown for Tampa and others are less than the actual US federal tax rates. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/taxes/taxes-federal-income-tax-bracket/#:~:text=For the 2021 tax year,what bracket you're in.
-
Gavin Group is federal taxes only. State taxes are not included.
-
That's the best you got? Man, now I know this thread actually does have quality value in it!
-
No, there is a rhyme and reason to negotiations. There are no age brackets. There's AGE. Nearly a 2 year difference in age from Hertl to Miller is massive. One guy finishes up his contract around 36 years old, almost 37. The other guy finishes up at nearly 39. Performance in favour of Miller. Age goes against Miller. Comparables of similar contracts (ie. 7 or 8 year deals for forwards) go against Miller. Cap increases limited due to covid go against Miller. Taxes are in Vancouver's favour (goes against Miller if comparing to Zib and Hertl).
-
He can do anything he wants, but like I said, his agent is not an idiot. When the Canucks come at him and ask him to find 30 year old forwards that sign massive 7 or 8 year deals, the list will be empty, or they can look at Kreider and Marchand who I've referenced. Then they can also look at the tax tables and realize that the NYR and SJS pay more tax than the Canucks. So Ziib and Hertl need more to break even. And then the Canucks also tell the agent that Zib was a year younger with his contract, and Hertl almost 2 years younger. If they wanna play hardball some more, the Canucks say so long to Miller and trade him.
-
I'm actually curious too. All I've ever heard from these guys is that it happens all the time, that teams will make it happen, they'll do what they need to do! There's never any concrete ideas or proposals from them. Here I show that it rarely ever happens that a 30 year old gets a 7 or 8 year deal, especially one worth $8.5M+ AAV, but for some reason, they know better based on how loud they shout and how many times they reply lol.
-
I wish! lol
-
Boston maybe? But still, that's like a 300k difference annually. Even over 8 years, that's only $2.4M total.
-
Found one: https://oilersnation.com/2018/07/10/comparing-nhl-player-contracts-based-on-city/ Sorted it here (Net Pay based on a $9.5M contract): So surprisingly, if we worry about taxes, it makes sense that Zib and Hertl in particular would have been paid more than normal. In theory, the Canucks could pay those guys less and they'd take home the same pay. That just further strengthens the argument that Miller shouldn't and won't get as much as Zib and Hertl.
-
Wow, so we actually don't have that big of a disadvantage. Some people on here make it sound like we're the Montreal Canadiens of the league in terms of taxes. We're only about 4% off from Florida and Tampa.
-
Which 6 teams are those? I assume both Florida teams? Which are the other 4?
-
Honestly, either the 6 year or 8 year works for me with those numbers. Both have advantages.
-
Well then he might need to be traded. Agents are evil, but not stupid. He would full well know what the market looks like for 30 year old guys. Is he gonna goto JT Miller and say "don't worry, you'll get your $8.5M x 8 in free agency" know that he likely won't?
-
Zib signed his deal on Oct 10, 2021. He is born on April 18, 1993. So he signed his deal at the age of 28. When he starts playing with his new contract, it will be Oct 2022. He will be 29 years and 6 months old. Hertl signed his on Mar 16, 2022. He's born on Nov 12, 1993. So he signed his deal at age 28. When he starts playing with his new contract in Oct 2022, he will still be 28 years and 11 months or so (turns 29 in Nov 2022). Miller was born on March 14, 1993. Miller's new contract won't kick in until the season starts in Oct 2023. Miller will be 30 years and 7 months by then. Miller will be a year older than both of them. Doesn't sound like much, but when it comes to these contracts, 1 year can be significant.
-
Then you ask the agent to come back with a list of 30 year old players signing 8 year deals for $8.5M+ AAV. When the list comes up empty, the negotiating begins.
-
Yeah, if you read my long winded post, Miller should theoretically come out to a $7.xx AAV assuming it's a 7 or 8 year deal.
-
Well, if our best player right now and 100pt man gets $9.2M, it sets a bar.
-
I was just curious how often it even happens that a 29 year old player signs a 7 or 8 year deal that kicks in at 30 years of age. @gurn I think it was you that was interested in this right? These are the active players that signed a 7 or 8 year deal that kicked in at 30 years or older: So only 1 forward in the Top 10 signed a 7 or 8 year deal at age 30+. When you look at the production for Couture, I have no idea why SJS thought it'd be smart to sign a 29 or 30 year old with that level of production to an $8M AAV deal for 8 years. When I look at 8 year deals, only 4 active forwards are on the list of 11 total active players: Couture, Marchand, Brown, and Oshie. The only forwards in that entire group that I'd say match up to JT Miller in terms of production are Marchand and Kreider. Kreider signed his 7 year deal after a 45pts in 63 games campaign in 2019-20. Expected cap limit for the following year was going to be $84 to $88M before covid came into effect. - so Kreider's expected cap hit as a % of the limit for 2020-21 onwards was 7.7% or less. Marchand signed his 8 year deal after a 85pts in 80 games campaign in 2016-17. Expected cap limit for the following year was $75M. - so Marchand's expected cap hit as a % of the limit for 2017-18 onwards was 8.2% or less. Both of these guys had front loaded deals where the final year was about 50% of the value in the 1st year. What does this tell us about Miller? 1. Doubtful that he signs a 7 or 8 year deal. It rarely happens for a player at nearly age 30. 2. Whatever he signs, it will likely be a front loaded deal where the final year(s) will be 50% of the first year. 3. He will likely have a CH% of something north of 8.2%. Highly doubtful that his CH% will approach 10%+ as those are usually guys younger than Miller. So... let's put some numbers to it. Assuming he signs a rare 7 or 8 year deal. Assuming a 9.5% cap hit % for the 2023-24 season (expected to be an $83.5M cap limit). That makes a $7.95M AAV cap hit (or $55.65M for 7 years, or $63.6M for 8 years). Knowing that in UFA, teams can only sign a player to 7 years, we'll use that as the barometer for total gross income required to retain Miller. So If we want to lock him up for 6 years? I think given the above, it'll cost $9.275M AAV over 6 years ($55.65 / 6). So if we want to lower the AAV? Sign him to the rare 8 year deal for $7M AAV ($56M / 8). TLDR: - Based on active players, it's very rare that forwards get signed to 7 or 8 year deals at age 30+ by any team, let alone during a flat cap world due to a pandemic, which means the likelihood is Miller signs for 6 years. - At 6 years, given historical Cap Hit %, it will likely cost $9.275M AAV over 6 years. - If he wants the longer term security of 8 years and same gross value, it comes out to around $7M AAV. My thoughts? There's almost no chance that he will get a $8.5 to $9M deal over 8 years. Sign him for the 6 years at $9.275M. Then re-sign him at 1 year deals after that if he wants to continue playing, and he's still productive. Discuss, rip apart the analysis, etc. etc. Thoughts?
- 390 replies
-
- 22
-
-
-
-
-