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HKSR

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Everything posted by HKSR

  1. Not saying he will come cheap. $9m x 8 years. By the end of that deal, it'd be the equivalent of $7.xx in today's cap world, so not exactly terrible. That's if he doesn't retire by year 7 or 8.
  2. Exactly. The pro-trade Miller side just talks about best case scenario that everything turns out from picks, prospects and free agents. While they compare it to worst case scenario of Miller declining to oblivion within 2 years. Just amazes me sometimes.
  3. Why didn't every team just go out and sign whatever they want? There's a finite amount of players to go around. Why don't you tell me who they should have signed last year?
  4. Like i said, very few players of his age in the past 20 years has done what he's doing right now. Unique. You just keep ignoring that fact so we go around in circles.
  5. Because it's not UFA season buddy. That happens in the summer.
  6. How? I've always said Miller is unique. Very rare do players his age achieve what he's doing this year. You're the one all over the place.
  7. You think Winnipeg has an issue with a Wheeler putting up close to an 80pt pace? He's not the issue. Scheifele is the one their fans are annoyed with. Same with Hellebuycks inconsistent play this year. Not to mention their defensive issues.
  8. Scheifele and Hellebuyck to start. Ehlers has been injured too. Their defence has been meh.
  9. You do. You ignore he's doing this at his age. He's not 24.
  10. Oh geez.. Wheeler is not the issue in Winnipeg, but go ahead and convince yourself of that.
  11. The fact is he's doing something thousands of players could not do at his age. You are just choosing to ignore that.
  12. The reality is it is VERY rare that a player that is 29 or 30 is in the top 10 in scoring. That makes them a different beast altogether. You can't generalize when these guys are clearly unique.
  13. I think you need to start with comparables. Find the 29 to 30 year old players that have been able to be in the top 10 in NHL scoring... then see how many decline. Picking thousands of players randomly in their 30s is not comparable at all. A 30 year old Max Lapierre or Cal Clutterbuck doesn't equate to a 30 year old Blake Wheeler.
  14. Oh man, you have a really simple way of looking at things, but I won't hold it against you as this clearly isn't your field of expertise. First of all, in GENERAL, you are right about discretionary vs non-discretionary spending habits during periods of inflation. However, there is a significant difference when it comes to luxury vs discretionary spending. Discretionary is that sweater you saw at the Gap, or eating out for dinner, or going to the movies. Luxury spending is the Hermes bag, the expensive automobile, or gasp... spending $300-$600+ on 2.5hrs of entertainment at Roger's Arena. There is actually many studies on this economic phenomenon, but you will find very little evidence of it in mainstream media. Just Google "inflation and luxury goods". Here's an example: https://fortune.com/2022/02/17/mass-market-brands-unilever-heineken-inflation-kering-gucci-lvmh-luxury-pricing-power-2021-revenues/ Like I said, unfortunately hockey games have become a luxury item. Many of the tickets are season ticket holders. Do you really think they will readily give up their tickets? Another large chunk are die hard canucks fans like Deb. Do you think they are gonna just stop going to games because tickets cost $10 - $15 more? No. These franchises are business machines that will find their revenues. Trust me. They are a luxury item, and they know it. It's also cute that you think a couple low six figure salaries is a lot of money. It's not, especially in a city like Vancouver. If I made that much, I'd also be driving a small sedan and an old family hauler. I lease my vehicles through a corporate shell (you can Google why that's wise). Fortunately I learned one important lesson early in my career. Pay attention here... 'Carrying Debt' is not the same as 'In Debt'. Debt is not Bad. I repeat, DEBT IS NOT BAD. The reality is I don't carry hundreds of thousands of dollars of Debt. I carry several million. However I sleep like a baby at night. Why? Because I also carry more than double that in equity and generate positive cash flows from leveraging that debt. My quality of life comes from the fact i work a six figure salary job from 8 to 4, but earn income 24hrs a day, 7 days a week. I also did the smart thing and moved out of Vancouver as soon as I could, but still make my money FROM Vancouver. The only reason I would want a financial advisor is to maybe make a new friend and to write off his fees haha. I'm not longer saving for retirement, I'm saving for my grandchildren's retirements. Anyways, totally off topic now, so I'm done. Back to my vacation, and see you at the TDL.
  15. You need to learn about how inflation impacts the luxury consumer. For example, I might sound like a douche by saying this (but saying it to you won't bother me much), but my wife and I are fortunate to be able to afford two luxury vehicles worth $100k+ each and spend over $3000 a month on just car payments. If the prices went up 10 to 15% on those vehicles, it wouldn't change a damn thing for me. I'd still spend the money on them. This 'yahoo' on the forum has been in finance for nearly 20 years and has degrees in economics, business, and is a chartered accountant. When some yahoo like you comes along and tries to throw personal gut feel into future projections, it just sounds stupid lol Anyways, I'm done with replying to simpletons like you while on vacation with my family, so I'm out. Enjoy your day.
  16. If you think inflationary pressures won't make a difference on revenues for multimillion dollar organizations then this conversation is a lost cause. Those that are that close to the line that broccoli is gonna cause them to reduce spending on hockey games are not the ones that would impact the revenues as much as you think.
  17. Wait... you don't actually think the players are just gonna sit around until 2025-26 before paying back their share do you? ... oh boy....
  18. Its called financial forecasting. I base my information off of historical growth. I havent even accounted for the heavy inflationary environment that we live in today (so im being relatively conservative in my estimates). You are entitled to FEEL that the cap won't go up by that much, I just like to base my rationale off historical numbers.
  19. Again, taking the lowest outlier is not the smartest way to look at the data, but you do you. What I've also calculated is the likely upper cap limit in 2030-31 based on historical growth, and taking escrow into consideration. The number comes out to $108m to $110m. So $9m in 2030-31 is equivalent to around $6.75m in today's cap. $6.75m for a 50pt centre like Miller is not terrible at all, and likely even tradeable depending on the salary structure (that's if he doesn't retire by year 7 or 8 of his contract, which looks very realistic as well).
  20. That's your opinion. I've shown how rare it is for any player of that age to do what he has done and is doing, and took an actual mathematical and statistical approach, but yeah, let's just go off your opinion.
  21. My point was that in over 10 years, it is very rare for 29 or 30 year old players to finish top 25 in scoring (let alone top 10). That alone puts Miller in very select company. Those are the guys Miller should be compared to. Statistically, one would normally exclude both the top and bottom outliers, but I chose to be conservative and ONLY excluded the top outlier (Ovechkin) and kept the bottom outlier (Sharp). In other words, it is very realistic that Miller will perform similar to that list provided.
  22. Right... just ignore all the others and pick the lowest performing player and call it a day... gotcha, that's the most accurate representation.
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