HKSR
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An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
I did. It is still looking at WAR. That doesn't tell us what actual expected offensive production would be. It tells us overall impact on the team. We all know Miller will decline, what I, and a lot of other people want to know is what is a reasonable points production level for a 36 to 38 year old Miller. That's what my data is about. -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
The fact you posted up a graph about WINS above replacement to get an understanding of individual player's offensive production tells me plenty. -
The lines look good... but do we actually have more cap flexibility? Kapanen and Marino combined make more than Boeser.
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What do his underlying numbers show? Do you have any actual numbers to look at? I don't know a ton about Marino, but I remember him being highly touted a couple years ago.
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[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Yes! Exactly!! We have: - Arguably our best player in Demko on a huge value deal (better than Mackinnon's IMO) - Hughes and Petey both on good value deals - Garland on a great value deal - 2 very effective Top 9 guys on ELCs (Hogs and Podz) - A 32 year old Luke Schenn playing like a Top 4 making less than $1M (again, another good value contract). - A 4th line that could compete with any 4th line in the entire league When you have that many value contracts going right now, and have one of the best centres in the entire league, not to mention the centre depth of Miller, Petey, Bo, and Lamikko down the middle, you take this as an opportunity (a window if you will). The team is clearly capable of playing exceptional hockey (.700 hockey for months now). They are NOT that far off from being a solid contender. The likelihood is if you checked around the league, there would be very, very few teams that would want to face the Canucks in the playoffs right now. That says a LOT about this team. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Totally hear you, but it's not like Miller plays all 3 positions at the same time lol. Miller may take away ONE player's ice time, but not all of Petey, Hogs, and Podz. In fact, it's probably only Petey that is affected, and it doesn't look like it's much of an issue given how Petey is performing lately The argument makes a lot more sense if you're talking about a backup goalie trying to move up. EDIT: Y'know as I am replying to you, it makes a lot more sense in my mind now for Boeser to be moved. I think it would really open up opportunity for one of either Garland, Podz, and Hogs to take their offensive game to another level with the additional opportunities. -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
Uhhh, I think you missed the point of the post completely. Let us know when you catch up. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
HKSR replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
This is the one thing I still can't wrap my head around. Many advocates for trading Miller are expecting our young guys to take significant steps forward in the next couple years. If they do that without Miller, why can't they do that WITH Miller? Just my thoughts are if that is the case, sure as hell this team would be a contender in a couple years considering they're already playing .700 hockey. -
I heard Crosby is on his way out of Pittsburgh.
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An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
No! I mean yes! Wait... no! Unless... maybe yes? Stop it! Go away!! -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
Ok clearly you have no idea what kind of team is playing in Vancouver. I think you're stuck in November 2021. Come join us in March 2022 when you can, the .700 hockey version of this year's Canucks is fun to watch. -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
Did you even look? There's 13 forwards 7 defencemen and 2 goalies. The numbers don't lie. Hamonic isn't traded. He walks as UFA. Dickinson and Poolman are the only 2 that need to be traded. To ice a lineup like this in 2 years, sweeteners would be worth it: Hogs-Petey-Podz Pearson-Miller-Boeser Garland-Bo-Motte Highmore-Lamikko-Lockwood 13F Hughes-Top4RHD OEL-Myers Rathbone-Schenn Burroughs Demko Backup What issue do we have with this lineup?? Offense? Check. Defence? Top 4 is solid. Goaltending? Elite. -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
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An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
What are you smoking? Go look again. The players are all laid out with their respective cap hits. There's no voodoo going on here lmao -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
Like I've said before, go look at my thread where I don't feel a core player needs to be traded. We can keep Miller and still add a $5M Top 4 RHD. Our 3rd line would be Garland-Bo-Motte... that's some serious depth. -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
I'd say if the plan is to re-sign Miller, you gotta do that first before moving anyone. If you move someone like Boeser, Miller might look at that as a rebuild situation, and wouldn't wanna stick around. Miller reminds me a lot of Kesler... -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
That's fair. That's actually one of the things being talked about on 650 today (yes, I've been listening to 650 all day lmao)... they were asking the question: "Is JT Miller a great player? Or is JT Miller having a great season?" -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
Says you who believes all of our young guys will blossom into top tier elite forwards and defencemen in 4 or 5 years ... then Demko, Petey, and Hughes are all making $9M+ 650 guys were just talking about how Petey, Hughes, Demko are all on value deals and there is a window now. Why else do you think JR has said we will likely be contenders in 2 years after a quick retool? -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
3 years of JT Miller on Vancouver: 1.04 PPG 0.87 PPG 1.20 PPG Like I also mentioned, his 1.20 PPG is 5th highest of all those players at the same age. -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
No idea... that's way more research than I wanna do hahaha -
An Interesting Look at What Could Happen to JT Miller's Production into his 30s
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Canucks Talk
Guess I should also mention, JT Miller is currently at nearly a 1.20 PPG pace. That places him 5th on the list behind only Kane, Sedin, Marchand, and Giroux amongst players aged 29/30 to be Top 25 in scoring. I'd like to also make it clear that there were players 31yo and up that were also in the Top 25 in scoring, but I specifically wanted to capture a point in time in their careers where they were around JT Miller's age to get a better sense of what happened 6 to 8 years later. Now that I've had some more time to look at the numbers more closely, it's weird how at +6, production seems to drop, but then at +7, it picks up again. Not sure why that's the case, but it's pretty consistent lol -
So I wanted to get an idea of what history has shown in regards to NHL players hitting the Top 25 in scoring at the age of 29 or 30, and what their inevitable decline looks like. I started with 2010-11, and identified players that were 29 or 30 years old, and also finished Top 25 in NHL scoring that year. Then I took a look at their PPG that year vs 6 years, 7 years, and 8 years later. For example, Daniel Sedin was 30 in 2010-11, finished top 25 in scoring, and had 1.27 PPG in 2010-11. In 2016-17 (+6), his PPG dropped to 0.54, and in 2017-18 (+7) his PPG was 0.68. So all of these players at the specific ages of 29 and 30 were Top 25 in NHL scoring for the particular years indicated. My observations: - 6 years after their Top 25 scoring season (at the specific ages of 29 or 30), PPG is 0.60 on average. 7 years later, it goes up to 0.69. - Taking generational talent Ovechkin out of the mix, results in 0.57 PPG 6 years after, and 0.61 PPG 7 years after. - Most players don't make it to the +8 season. They end up retiring. - Seems like the past 5 or 6 years have some pretty unique older players. I could see most of the players from 2015-16 onwards to maintain pretty high PPG averages well into the future. So what does this mean for JT Miller? We can realistically expect by year 6 of his new deal, he would be scoring around 50 points per season. We can also reasonably expect that he may very well retire by Year 8 of his contract. Anybody know what that would mean in regards to his cap hit? Anyways, thought this would be a nice discussion piece.
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Someone convince me that this is a good idea... seeing how the UK did the same about 2 weeks ago and their cases have increased by over 50% from the prior week...
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[Rumour] Canucks interested in Corey Andonovski
HKSR replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Darn... still hoping the Canucks land Livingstone. -
[Discussion/Proposal] Refill the Prospect Cupboards
HKSR replied to HKSR's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
I think we need to see what we have in him by next season... I believe he's got the tools to play in the bottom 6. We just need to find a spot for him.