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HKSR

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Everything posted by HKSR

  1. Fair enough. There are other options as well - Bjugstad, Hyman, Johansson In fact, if we were to spend less on the 3C (say $4M AAV), we could probably go out and land someone like Savard on RHD instead of Montour. That would be a significant boost to the D core for the next few seasons.
  2. So I've done a couple of these now, but this one is probably most realistic. Assumption that upper cap limit will see conservative rise of $1M in 2024-25 and 2025-26 to $82.5M. Didn't do much with the Bottom 6 forwards, or Bottom pair for defence as there's lots of interchangeable parts down there. These scenarios only take into account a single successful draft pick in the 5 years lol. Realistically, with GMJB's draft history, we'll probably see plenty of ELCs moving in rather than having to dip into UFA pools. 2021-22 Assumptions: - Significant UFA Signing: Philip Danault @ 5M AAV x 5 years anchors the 3rd line for years to come - UFA Signing: Brandon Montour @ 4M AAV x 3 years - Petey and Hughes extended on identical bridge deals @ $6.5M AAV for 3 years - Hamonic re-signed at $2.5M AAV - Roussel traded with Juolevi as the sweetener for a pick - Holtby taken by Kraken in expansion draft - Beagle and Ferland on LTIR, Virtanen either traded or contract terminated - Canucks pick one of either Eklund, Lysell, or Svechkov in the draft (preferably Eklund or Lysell -- Lysell is ultra realistic) 2022-23 Assumptions: - Major UFA Signing: Seth Jones @ $8M AAV (other options may come cheaper -- Parayko, Ristolainen, Pulock, Klingberg, J Manson, etc) - Boeser extended @ $7M AAV - Rathbone on a small bridge deal @ $1.5M AAV for 2 years to prove his worth 2023-24 Assumptions: - Hoglander killed it and is a true Top 6. Extended on a bridge deal for $4.5M AAV x 3 years - This one hurts... Miller walks as a UFA. He becomes too expensive for the Canucks. - Horvat extended @ $6.5M AAV 2024-25 Assumptions: - Podkolzin, like Hogs, has also done really well and is a true Top 6. Extended on an identical bridge deal for $4.5M AAV x 3 years - Petey and Hughes get their big pay days @ $8.5M AAV - Pearson walks as UFA, but fortunately, Lysell is ready now for the big league and jumps right into a 2nd line winger role - Myers walks as UFA, but Rathbone is now ready for Top 4 minutes - Rathbone signs @ 4M AAV for his first big pay day as a Top 4 defenceman 2025-26 Assumptions: - Big UFA Signing: Top 4 RHD @ $6M AAV (Notable Top Tier RHD in 2025-26 as UFA: Ekblad, Chychrun, Theodore, Provorov)
  3. That's awesome... finally a stronger deterrent.
  4. To Vancouver: Reinhart, Ristolainen To Buffalo: Schmidt, Juolevi, Lind, Roussel, plus whatever pick(s) I projected this all into the future in the proposals section lol
  5. Just for fun, I'm taking this well into the future lol 2021-22 Season Assumptions: - Hughes and Petey extended on a $6.5M AAV x 3 year bridge deal - Virtanen contract either terminated or he is traded - Beagle and Ferland on LTIR - Roussel traded (see blockbuster trade below) - Sutter back at 2M AAV x 2 years - Holtby taken by the Kraken - Edler signs 1 year deal for $3M AAV Blockbuster Trade: To Vancouver: Reinhart, Ristolainen To Buffalo: Schmidt, Juolevi, Lind, Roussel, plus whatever pick(s) - Reinhart and Ristolainen both re-signed at $6M AAV Roster: Miller Petey Boeser Reinhart Bo Hogs Pearson Sutter Podz Motte Hawryluk MacEwen Highmore Hughes Ristolainen Edler Hamonic Rathbone Myers Chatfield 2022-23 Season Assumptions: - Boeser extended @ $7M AAV - Rathbone signs bridge deal @ $2M AAV x 2 - Edler signs 1 year deal @ $2M AAV Huge UFA Signing: - Seth Jones signs @ $7.5M AAV for 6 years Miller Petey Boeser Reinhart Bo Hogs Pearson Sutter Podz Motte Lockwood MacEwen Gadjovich Hughes Jones Rathbone Ristolainen Edler Myers Chatfield 2023-24 Season and onwards... Assumptions: - Petey and Hughes re-sign for big $8.5M AAV deals - Horvat re-signs @ $6.5M AAV - JT Miller walks as a UFA - Hoglander and Podz both extended on $3.5M AAV bridge deals - Rathbone signs a $4.5M AAV deal - etc etc... Core Roster TOP 6: Hogs Petey Boeser Podz Bo Reinhart D Top 4: Hughes Jones Rathbone Ristolainen Let's keep in mind I have not included a single draft pick in these rosters. We know we're getting a good player this year, but we'll see where he ends up. -
  6. The odds of dying in a car crash are literally WAY more likely: https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk I think it's the mental aspect of making a decision to get a shot that has a minute chance of killing you when there are alternatives (ie. Pfizer/Moderna). Oh, and media.
  7. Ok, I don't think I'm gonna get through to you. You talk about LTIR experts, well you happen to be talking to one of them lol! https://couchguysports.com/the-nhl-ltir-explained/ Read this article again in detail. Here's the offseason piece: "As I said earlier, the LTIR can be used in the offseason. On top of that, it does not result in the team getting less relief. The only difference between using the LTIR during the offseason and the regular season is during the offseason, teams also get the extra 10% cushion that every team is allowed to exceed the cap by until the first day of the season. On the first day of the season, the team’s ACSL and LTIR relief pools are recalculated minus the 10% offseason cushion. So, it’s really no different. Now, to make sure it’s really sunk in, say it with me: the LTIR can be used in the offseason, and it does not result in the team getting less relief overall."
  8. No, it's not a good thing to rely on it, but when you have it, you make use of it if you need to. Ferland and Beagle are more than likely never coming back. So they need to be replaced. Hence, why not spend the room available up to the ACSL?
  9. Nope, I never backtracked. I talked about Ferland's LTIR. Not Beagle. Go back and take a look Funny thing is, another poster mentioned Beagle, and I forgot about his LTIR. Basically, any retention to get rid of Roussel could easily absorbed due to the Ferland and Beagle LTIR.
  10. Huh? Ok, I wasn't gonna make it this obvious, but here is Tampa Bay: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/lightning Look at their projected cap hit... nearly $99M... y'know why? They've got nearly $25.5M in LTIR.
  11. Yup, I agree on your first sentence, but I think we all know those 2 are likely never playing another game again in the NHL. So it's a safe bet to utilize the LTIR as we see fit. I think your concern is that if a player is reactivated, we don't have the cap for it. Correct? The Canucks will be well under $87.5M based on my scenario. PS - Bonuses are not a concern for opening night. They are an impact later on, and sometimes that's an issue which results in cap overages that impact the next season's cap (definitely not a good thing).
  12. Lol, I dunno how else to explain it to you. You still don't quite understand all this... Here, take a look at the Leafs: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs Now tell me what their projected cap hit is (yup, you got it, this number is the one that includes the LTIR as of today). EDIT: Here's the Canucks... https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/canucks Notice how much higher the number is than the $81.5M cap limit.
  13. Correct. However, it is replaced by being able to overspend. So Ferland's salary stays in place, but it allows the Canucks to replace his salary with the equivalent amount over and above the upper cap limit. A simple example is if the Canucks spent EXACTLY to $81.5M which INCLUDES Ferland's salary. Then the Canucks place him on LTIR. Now the Canucks can replace his $3.5M with another $3.5M worth of player(s). So the net result is the cap that the Canucks have to work with is $81.5 + 3.5 = $85M (the new ACSL).
  14. Buffalo, you can have Loui, Roussel, Beagle, and Virtanen. We'll take a disgruntled player like Eichel off your hands.
  15. What about this preseason and Hamonic? In my scenario, the Canucks are pretty much right up against the cap. So their ACSL will likely be in the $83M to $84M range.
  16. I disagree. Please have a good read of this to understand how it works: https://couchguysports.com/the-nhl-ltir-explained/
  17. Possibly. If that's the case, I think it'd be worthwhile to spend more on the LW position and a cheaper alternative on RHD.
  18. Could play the LTIR game... Ferland's LTIR buffer isn't being utilized in my scenario.
  19. It's not a discount. It's market value. There's no player in history that has signed a true bridge deal for that kinda money. Tkachuk has probably signed the biggest bridge deal at $7M AAV for 3 years. Others like Aho signed 7 or 8 year deals for the big money right away.
  20. I see 2 scenarios with Virt: 1. He's innocent -- trade him anyways as it'll be a distraction. He will definitely get a pick back. 2. He's guilty -- contract is terminated. Either way, his cap will and can be moved out.
  21. I like Larsson simply because he can log the big minutes. Nobody else in our system on the right side could step in and log the big minutes right now.
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