samurai
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Everything posted by samurai
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This has as many holes in it as a slice of Swiss cheese.
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The confused emoji are from the peanut gallery. A few of the usuals are missing. You are not at my level yet.
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The first 5 minutes of that video would put you to sleep.
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CNN is very different now than it used to be back in the 80s. I very much agree that CNN has become a Fox like echo chamber for a certain audience. All the cable networks have done very well during the pandemic catering to their echo chamber. You can just see that by how many people on this topic paste CNN (good) and Fox (bad) video. CNN is clearly more interested in making money than being objective and balanced. Ted Turner didn't start CNN with the sole purpose of making money. It is disappointing. They are the anti-Trump network and it is profitable for them. People talk as if a second wave is a foregone conclusion. But exactly what constitutes a second wave. The media reported night club clusters in Korea as a second wave. The premise is based on the lax of social distancing and fall and winter weather. Interestingly, an argument in favor of lock down was that weather had nothing to do with virus spread because it was just that lethal.
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computing error
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the big debate now is whether herd immunity is even required. For example people may not have the antibodies but have other innate defense that stops it. I just posted a video and the one before it that also discuss the whole issue. It is quite complex . Nonetheless Sweden does not have herd immunity whatever that may mean.
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theoretical epidemiologist Oxford University.
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Sven to Scout in Europe (Proposal)
samurai replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Some Swiss epidemiologist who likes Sven told me. -
Sven to Scout in Europe (Proposal)
samurai replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Agreed. Sven is overpriced but he is a legit player who plays responsible D and can put up decent numbers. He has offensive vision for sure and knows where to go. He can play up and down the line up. He defo has years left in the league. Better contact and he would have played in the show somewhere for sure. -
exactly, not mine
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calling the kettle black
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the video i posted he takes the burn out position - not a Trumpian one but a little more nuanced. And then there are numerous others if you search who orient towards a burn out view.
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don't be lazy
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Yes, I can, but how about you be a good citizen and put in your own work to confirm or refute. I pasted one article and see near the end. There are two schools of thought with this Covid - a burn out or it changes into something into a lot less lethal over time. The latter is probably the safer bet if you are a gambling epidemiologist. Yes, social distancing is important but my understanding is that the virus's own characteristics play a significant part - makes sense. And of course environmental factors as well. More and more experts are starting to believe the weather is in play. This article covers it. But again I have directly read and heard experts talk about it the past few weeks. I posted a video yesterday. The whole thing is quite interesting, but the last half on antibodies is worth a listen. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/23/coronavirus-isnt-alive-thats-why-its-so-hard-kill/
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I have read and heard lots of experts over the past few months who have said that this COVID will more than likely act like all viruses and just kind of go away on its own like SARs and so forth - perhaps pushed by social distancing a bit. I posted a video a day ago and the last 15 minutes or so is quite interesting and worth the listen - I am sure you would find it so. Of course this doesn't mean a flare up isn't possible in the fall or the virus is now gone. The point being is that the inherent characteristics of the disease itself contribute as much to its spread as its own demise. It hasn't gotten much media attention but I have seen multiple specialists discuss this. Large forest fires are in some ways a good metaphor. You don't really control them and often containment so to speak is achieved when the fire just burns itself out for numerous reasons. When there are fires obviously we don't just sit and watch but containment is heavily dependent on the fire itself.
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Diseases don’t hibernate. Bears do. Numerous Dr. have argued that the disease is in rapid decline not just because of social distancing but because it is running its course or puttering out.
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According to Eurostats. French household is just over 1 person on average. Dark orange 1 per, light orange 2. blue 3-5. red 6. France has been a nuclear society for a while.
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https://www.thelocal.fr/20180523/why-are-frances-elderly-treated-so-badly
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I think it is for psychological reasons in getting people used to it, and probably seeing what kinds of issues pop up as well. More of a practice or trial run.
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40,000 schools opened. I bet lower income hoods where the infections occurred as well.
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Schools when they open will not be closed again. Only in cases of a cluster at specific schools. I doubt there are many experts who have looked at the data to date and see school closure as an effective social distancing practice. Of course some kids will not be able to return. And that may be a longterm thing for them - years.
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The major league baseball study found zero cases of kids infecting parents. In Germany as well they have no evidence/cases of children infecting parents. One study showed that even with a house full of people there is only a 15% chance of transmission. The flu kills more young people than Covid. If you follow the data on school lockdowns you will see a hodge podge of actions. So for example some schools even at the secondary level stayed well open after the peak and so forth and only shutdown later. In other countries you got early shutdown. In other words whatever timeline early, slow or what types of schools were closed the data is the same. Schools are not clusters. A study out of Stanford argues that closing schools only stops spreading by 2%. So pretty crappy outcome. All lives matter is nonsense. More accurately it is lives for lives. There is a clear tradeoff. In Japan the nursery schools are open and have been the whole time. Some lesser infected areas had their schools open almost the whole time (only 2 weeks closed). Some shutdown since early March. Like everywhere the data shows no impact either way from opening or closing. It is an ineffective measure.
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Day care has been open the whole time in Japan. Keep clean with soap and water, open windows every few hours to change the air and monitor. And breaks are taken for hand washing. A lot of the head teachers in nursery schools here are X nurses. I have seen parents turned away for trying to sneak their kids by. They did that even before corona. A group of students get sick in a class that class is sent home for a few days. My daughter in grade 4 in January was sent home for 3 days because 4 kids in her class caught the flu. Just that class. And parents are told that kids have the flu. All these measures make a big big difference.
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some of the best writing you will find in any field is often before the 90s. A lot of really good academics dating back to the 1920s that are relevant have been forgotten. You can make a career out taking this forgotten work and recasting it as somewhat your own . Steven Pinker's widely selling The Better Angels of Our Nature is basically the same thesis as Norbet Elias's 1940 The Civilizing Process. The latter blows the former away in literary style and depth. It is a a grave mistake to think that older work is less quality than the up to date. Often it is the opposite.