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I feel like the lottery odds shouldn't have changed from the old ones (or at least not as severe), but that there should have been three different draws (for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd) like there is now. So first overall is likely to stay that way, but 2nd pick and on might swap, but won't screw teams over.
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Not in the small case study you've given, no. It is still a case of probabilities and tanking does increase your odds of winning the best picks. It's just that openly tanking has always been a risk, but it's even more a risk than it used to be. Toronto got lucky and still came away with the first pick. In 2015, Buffalo wasn't so lucky.
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