wallstreetamigo
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Everything posted by wallstreetamigo
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Boston apparently was not interested in him without significant retention. At least that was the rumor last year.
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So, in what ways is OEL anything like Shea Weber?
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His regression as a player is on the defensive side of the puck and 5 on 5. Along with being not overly physical, those really are the areas where we need help on the left side. We dont need another non physical, average offense with average defense type on this team. We already have a few. Plus an all offense, limited defense, no physical play guy in Hughes. Who is OEL going to replace on the top PP unit in Van? Because he is not really a consistent point producer at 5 on 5. He had 10 ES points last year vs 14 pp points. He will get less offensive opportunity in Van. Who plays the defensive zone minutes on a left side with Hughes, OEL, and Rathbone? I watch a lot of games all around the NHL.
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The point isnt that OEL is a bad player. He's not. He just isnt a net positive for any team based on the risk imposed by his cap hit (even with 2 mil retained), real dollars paid, term, nmc, age, and 3 years of worrisome regression.
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Taking on 6 years of OEL at 6.25-8.25 mil cap hit doesnt scream patience.
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In no world should our 9OA be traded for OEL.
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No chance Arizona retains enough to make any trade for him worth it. He is significantly overrated so someone will probably trade for him at his full hit hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Better not be Benning though.
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Taking chances does not equal taking huge, unnecessary long term risk. People are so desperate to move one meaningless year of Eriksson that they are willing to change it for 6 years of OEL. Remember how most assumed the best case scenario when Eriksson was signed? If OEL were to crash like he did, would it still have been a good chance to take? I say go with Juolevi or Schmidt on the left side and acquire a top pairing RHD instead. This team is just bot very good and is not an OEL away from being much better.
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We are finally almost out of the cap hell Benning put us in. Why would we want the risk of another 6 years of it if things dont go perfectly according to plan? Use the cap next summer to actually improve the team.
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I dont disagree he could be better elsewhere. I just would not bet the farm on it. If we are paying a guy 10.5 mil real cash each of the next 3 years while at an 8.25 mil cap hit for 6 years, given the financial realities of the Canucks in this depressed financial era, he better damn well be a Norris quality guy that actually fills a need we have.
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Because he just isnt the shutdown guy the left side needs - if it truly needs anything. He is not physical and we already have Hughes, Rathbone, and Juolevi who dont fill that particular need. If we are acquiring anything for the left side, it needs to be more like Hamonic and less like Edler.
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So sure, lets acquire a player with a contract like that while assuming his regression has nothing to do with his age or any individual factor but that its all about his team. Taking a best case scenario will always happen outlook has already proven to be a very costly strategy by Benning in many signings and trades. This would likely easily eclipse Eriksson as his worst move to date. Too much risk for a guy who doesnt make our D any tougher to play against, is more of the same that we already have too much of, and is another left dide D on a team that needs an upgrade to its RHD.
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He has had 3 straight years of regression. He has been supplanted by Chychrun. And if his team playing poorly explains away all his regression, why are we expecting him to step onto an equally bad at best team that plays even worse defensively and suddenly recapturing his glory days from 5 years ago?
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At 8.25 million for 6 more years with a nmc, OEL is the poster child for regret.
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You should read all the advanced stat articles from last year and add in an even bigger decline this past year. But even just the eye test does show a regression.
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Hamonic on a 2nd pairing with Schmidt is something I feel Shaw could really turn into a huge positive. Rathbone and Myers looked pretty complimentary. That leaves Hughes without thd right partner though and Juolevi somewhat expendable. Juolevi and 9OA should be a good basis to acquire a younger top pairing RHD that can play with Hughes.
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Never said that at all. Never said OEL wasnt a "good dman" either. You just cant separate a player from his contract. In a cap world, value is always relative. Cap hit, real dollars owed, and term plus a nmc makes him a net negative, which is one reason the Coyotes are desperate to move on from him. Luongo was a great goalie whose value plummeted due to a $&!#ty contract. There are countless examples of that. Eriksson at league minimum is a decent depth player/insurance policy for a team. At 6 mil per he is a boat anchor. OEL at a 5 mil cap hit for 2 or 3 more years is a great add. 8.25 for 6 more? He is a net negative. Its all relative.
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Ya I dont think I would give up a 2nd in that deal. His contract really is a huge risk.
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There is always a price that makes sense for any player. I think even with 3 mil retained, that contract will end up making our team worse in a year or two though. Here's the thing. Last year it was widely reported that a main sticking point for both Boston and the Canucks was that the Coyotes did not want to retain much if any salary. There is no scenario where I would take on the full contract for him. Even outside of the cap and term, like the Holtby signing its prioritizing filling a non-critical need with a supremely overrated guy based on what he used to be rather than what he is now. If this is a direction the Canucks want to take, they should just trade Hughes, Juolevi, Rathbone, picks, and prospects to load up for the max 2 year window this would get the older core before needing another rebuild. We already have too many older players that are regressing. Next summer represents a real opportunity to revamp the roster. This one move alone deep sixes a lot of the opportunity to do so.
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OEL is supremely overrated here. He is just another type of D we already have enough of. Decent offensively, average defensively, non physical, and with a huge contract for 6 more years to boot. And now 3 years of regression. What he WAS is not a consideration. What he IS and WILL BE should be the only factors that matter, along with how those two things square up with a truly heinous contract.
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Exactly my opinion.
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Exactly what I have been saying. Good post Sid.