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Everything posted by DownUndaCanuck
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I think we always have a skewed view of our players, but the question is, how will they translate and compare to the rest of the NHL? I think Podkolzkin will likely be a top-6 winger, might be a bit inconsistent at times but he's got the tools, it's all about the development for him so the sooner we get him into Utica the better. Hopefully he's Utica-ready next season and possibly break into our bottom-6 in a year or two after that. Good chance he's a medium to long term NHLer. I think Hoglander's shown his elite skill level and will make the NHL, he may not be a consistent scorer and worst case scenario may end up the next Goldobin, but he's got potential and again, the sooner we get him into playing tough North American hockey, the better. I think he might need a year or two in Utica before even trying the NHL. At the moment good chance he's got a medium-length NHL career. Rafferty out of nowhere deserves an NHL spot next season for sure but again, AHL success and NHL success don't necessarily correlate. Could be a bit of a wild-card depending on how he deals with the speed and pressure of the NHL, but I think he's got a decent chance at a small to medium NHL career. Lind I expect to put all his tools together and compete for an NHL spot next season. He probably won't get it because we're so deep at the moment, but on a weak team would deserve it. If he hustles the way Gaudette did he might push an NHLer out (Beagle, Sutter, Roussel in particular) because Lind as the skillset for the NHL. I think he'll have a decent medium to long NHL career. Juolevi is interesting, I really do hope he has a long NHL career but he has never really dazzled people at any level. He's been steady and consistent which I'm hoping translates to the NHL, and if he plays in the NHL the way he has in the AHL and previously, he'll be fine, an Edler-type steady player. Based on his pedigree I'd expect a long NHL career from him but with injuries and inconsistencies in Utica you never know. Rathbone, Woo and Focht I'll lump together as big unpredictables. Honestly I think they'll get a bit of a stint here and there in the NHL but will primarily be Utica players. Rathbone seems pretty solid right now (point per game in NCAA as a defenceman) as does Woo offensively, but we need to see how their defensive game can handle big strong forwards in the AHL first.They'll really have to work their ways up slowly almost the way Stecher did and whether or not they play in the NHL depends on our defensive depth in 2-3 years.
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Miller - Pettersson - Toffoli Pearson - Horvat - Boeser Gaudette - Sutter - Roussel Motte - Beagle - Virtanen Eriksson MacEwan Edler - Myers Hughes - Tanev Stecher - Fantenberg Benn That's basically our current lineup if we re-sign everyone. Personally I hope: 1) Eriksson gets bought out or traded, MacEwan slots in on a regular basis or Ferland ideally if he's healthy 2) If not, trade Sutter 3) We re-sign Tanev or a similar UFA defenceman for around 4M 4) We re-sign Stecher or if need be let him walk/trade his rights and give Juolevi/Chatfield/Brisbeois/Rafferty a chance at being our 7th rotating defenceman.
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I agree with most of this but sadly don't think Ferland will be playing hockey anymore and am a little scared about Juolevi starting in our top-6. He really should be by now but I don't know if he's our best AHL defenceman. Maybe Rafferty gets the nod, maybe Chatfield or Brisebois, but surely one of those guys can play 15 mins a night to save us some cap. Up front I doubt JB can move all of those contracts realistically but of course it would be nice. If Ferland comes back I say Roussel at 3M is expendable but I don't think he will so let's hang on to Roussel. I just can't imagine JB trading Sutter after all this "foundational player" stuff, as much as I know most fans want his cap gone. I think your forward lines are bang on, just that JB wil likely keep Sutter. Baertschi has to be the obvious dump to a struggling team for a late pick or considerations, he still has some NHL hockey left in him so hopefully that's an easy 2M cleared. On D sadly I think you're right in that Stecher is going to have to be traded or let go, we can't afford 2.5M+ on our bottom pairing at the moment. Tryamkin is a wildcard, if he doesn't sign then I think we should either keep Stecher cheap or sign one of the many UFAs out there (my pick would be Edmunson) but Stecher would certainly be the cheaper option. I doubt Tanev gets much of a raise to be honest, he's getting older and is still clearly injury prone so hopefully he resigns at around the same 4.25M amount.
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[Discussion] Barrie vs Schultz...July 1
DownUndaCanuck replied to 86Viking's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
There's a lot of far more tempting UFA defencemen out there (if we really need one, which I don't think we currently do) who might take a bit of a cut due to the lowering of the cap and the coronavirus break. Tanev is the obvious best deal and he'll probably be happy to re-sign here at 4M hopefully for about 2-4 years (the shorter the better for him). Barrie and Schultz are both puck movers and will ask for around 5-6M which is what they deserve, and while we could always use another PMD, they're both shaky defensively. Vatanen and TJ Brodie are interesting, they haven't had the best seasons so might be able to be had relatively cheaply. I doubt they'd stoop as low as 4M, probably 4.5M at the best, but they're both pretty solid who could use a change of scenery. The more shut-down variety include Kulikov, Edmundson (my personal pick of the lot, youngest, could get him for 3.5-4M and physical), Dillon and Hamonic who are all going to go for around 4M as well. In all honesty there's not much difference between a 30 year old Tanev and the other guys around the 4M mark apart from old age and wear and tear. Tanev's been with this group a long time though and it would be nice for JB to keep the group together, especially if there's not that much difference in quality. If Tanev wants 4.5-5M or more importantly, a long-term deal, I think JB has the right to walk away because there's plenty of other similar defencemen on the market, but I do hope we keep Tanev. Great PKer, 20-30 point pace on the season (is better than the other shutdown guys), a decent quiet leader and role guy for the young defencemen coming in. That being said, I'd take Edmunsun and his 6'4" physicality (similar point pace as Tanev) for 3.5-4M in a heartbeat. Best case scenario (not happening though) would be to trade Stecher's rights for a pick or let him walk, somehow buyout Eriksson's 6M or get rid of it and then re-sign Tanev and Edmunson. He'd be a massive upgrade on Stecher but not much of an upgrade on Tanev. -
A one-time allowance for a buyout would be JB (and most GM's) wet dream to be honest. Let's say for arguments sake that we get 2 buy-outs but the cap drops to 80M: 1) Virtanen 2.5M short-to-medium bridge contract 2) Motte 1M 3) Gaudette 1.5M bridge 4) MacEwan 900K 5) Tanev 4M or sign a UFA (there's loads out there, Brodie, Hamonic, Dillon etc. who will probably ask for much more than Tanev) 6) Fantenberg 1M 7) Markstrom 5.5M 8) Toffoli 5.5M (considering a lot of the other top-6 guys make around that and Toffoli fits that bill, realistically deserves 6M but will hopefully take a corona-cut) Let Leivo, Domingue and Stecher walk (or trade his rights for a pick) That takes us to 76M including penalties if we buyout Eriksson's 6M and lots of flexibility. Realistically we could sign another top-4 UFA defenceman or keep Stecher if we really want, give a bit extra cash to Markstrom or Toffoli who really deserve it. If JB can somehow wrangle his way out of that Eriksson contract he'll be considered a God for many reasons, but mainly because it'll let us keep everyone together despite the dropping cap. Personally, depending on how low the cap goes, I'd re-sign Stecher for around 2M as our 5th defenceman (can play top-4 20 minutes in case of injury, not many bottom pairing guys can do that) and dish the leftovers out to Toffoli, Marky, Virtanen and even Motte and Gaudette. Without the buyout we're obviously in the early 80's cap-wise and JB will have to think of some sort of cap-related trade.
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Watching the game again it's crazy to see the chances the Sedins generated and sustained pressure. In today's NHL I wonder how many they would have scored...problem is they never had a true finisher, now we've got a team full of goal scorers with no playmakers ironically. That 3rd line of Lapierre, Hansen and Higgins was dynamite as well. Lots of GMs try and bring back players who have chemistry together in former teams, just like JB bringing in Toffoli and Pearson, and Laps and Higgins were the duo of that era. Don't think we'll see a team that strong for a long time if ever. Best two forwards in the league at the time, best 2nd line centre, best 3rd checking line, best PP and PK, best top 4 defence in the league and arguably the best goalie in the league. I think the main missing link was some 2nd line wingers to play with Kesler and bottom pairing defence (Alberts was brutal), which is where Boston beat us - depth. Again ironically I think the current day Canucks have better depth, a much better 6th and 7th defenceman and 4th line, than that 2011 and 2012 team.
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Would be a big gutsy move by JB to let our veterans Tanev and Markstrom go and hinge our hopes on the youth. Demko is showing signs of brilliance at times but he's clearly not NHL-starter ready just yet. We'd really need to sign a bonified backup for him. I think we could get away with a 40-40 split with Demko and another goalie, but we lose a LOT of quality with Markstrom. Personally I don't see JB doing this, especially after what Marky's done for this team this season, but it does open up a lot of space for the future. Going with Tryamkin over Tanev again is a huge gamble of basically choosing the unknown over the safe, stable choice. I do wonder how much Tryamkin would ask for, probably in the realm of 2-4M, which he probably deserves, but we have no idea how he's going to perform. In his brief time with the Canucks he was an absolute unit, smooth skater, contributed points and a beast physically, but he wasn't the best PKer positionally and got caught out on odd-man rushes sometimes. He's a much riskier player than Tanev. I don't think JB is ready to make a risky move like this since he's so slowly built a foundational team here, but desperate times call for desperate measures and he may well do it after this whole COVID-19 fiasco. That being said, I think JB understands as well that you build a solid playoff team from the goalie out, not from forwards down. Sadly, I think that might mean letting Toffoli walk to keep Markstrom and Tanev, but I do hope there's another way and that we shed our secondary and tertiary players costing us 2-4M so we can keep a relatively expensive core together. Guys like Sutter, Roussel, Stecher and Benn are nice but they cost too much for what they bring. Usually they'd be great, but if the cap goes down we can't afford our bottom players to cost ups anymore than 1M really, which could easily be replaced by the top AHL guys.
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I agree that's the obvious place to cut some cap, lose Tanev and Stecher and we save 6M easily which we can throw to Toffoli and Markstrom. The other option is just let Toffoli walk but in all honesty, Toff is 27, in his prime, has 3-4 good 20-40 goal scoring years and fills out our top-6 beautifully, so it's very tempting to give him what he wants and keep him, especially consider we burned Madden on him. On the flip side, letting Tanev and Stecher walk opens up a massive hole on our blueline. Edler's getting older and won't be as good, Myers will be the same, Hughes will be better, Fantenberg will still be a decent bottom-pairing defenceman but then we've got 2 AHLers in our top-6. One or two injuries and we're right back where we started (like last season). I'd be more tempted to keep Tanev (try and get him for 4M, or the same as what he's on now) and let Stecher walk and be replaced by Tryamkin/Rafferty/Juolevi, because he stabilizes the defence far more. Then up front let Leivo walk (replaced by Toffoli really) and give Toff the cap we had for Leivo which is a decent 1.5M.
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So obviously there's going to be a lot of uncertainty about the next cap hit with this coronavirus break and the NHL is likely to lose millions of dollars which will probably reflect in a shrinkage in cap. This will hurt teams up against the cap and there may be some leeway or special rules that come into play for teams that are suddenly rediculously over the cap (eg. Toronto) with lots of long-term high salary contracts. In terms of the Canucks though, Toffoli has been a monster since coming over and of course it'd be lovely to try and squeeze him in next year, but for a lot of players looking to sign new contracts, the drop in cap will make for a lot of uncertainty. Up until the break, it looked like he'd command 5-6M easily in the current climate, but now with the cap dropping, the first few signings will really set the tone for the rest of the signings. He's a consistent big strong 30 goal scorer and therefore will likely deserve 6M, but with the cap dropping we might be able to argue him down to 4-5M depending on how far it drops. I think agents are going to really try to deal in terms of % of cap rather than absolute numbers. If the cap somehow stays around where it is now (around 83M) and we can bargain our players down a bit, here's what we might be able to do: Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously) Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise) Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M) Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M) Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion) Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M) MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M) Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M) Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M) Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise) Including our current players (excluding Ferland on LTIR) that takes us to 77.4M Add on Luongo and Spooner's and Baertschi's caps and that's 83.4M There might be some wiggling needed, but I think JB can fit Toffoli and most of the key players back into the fold. If it's a matter of a million here or there he could let Stecher walk and replace him with one of the many young cheap AHL defencemen. The big question mark is what the cap will be, if it's 80M we're in big trouble but then so will a lot of teams...
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[Proposal] Loui Eriksson off-season
DownUndaCanuck replied to NMHockey's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Sadly I think the only way we get rid of Eriksson is to give up a high draft pick or prospect. I don't think he should cost a 1st but I'd part with a 2nd for sure if it means we can squeeze Toffoli into the fold. With the cap likely going down now, Eriksson's 6M carries much more weight and Toffoli is still going to demand 4-6M. I'd do Eriksson + 2nd for considerations to any team in a heartbeat. Would love to send Baertschi/Goldobin + Eriksson + 2nd to Ottawa for an AHL player. All of those guys deserve a chance on an NHL team, Eriksson would probably be on their 3rd line and Baertschi/Goldobin could hit 30-40 points in their top-6. Free up 8M would be massive for the Canucks obviously. -
What will happen to the Nhl season and Playoffs(poll)
DownUndaCanuck replied to naslund.is.king's topic in Canucks Talk
The big problem is the quality of ice in Summer and I don't think we can presume the regular season like the NBA will, as well as playoffs. This will probably go on for a couple of months, may get the all-clear in May to resume hockey which doesn't leave long. Hockey will be pretty unbearable for the ice in July and August. I think abbreviated season, end the regular season the way it is and playoffs based on win %. Worst comes to worst, they may need a best of 3 or best of 5 playoff series, with maybe the SCF a 7 game series to squeeze it in time. Don't want to be watching playoff hockey down the stretch on mushy ice. -
J.T. Miller trade and the 1st round pick
DownUndaCanuck replied to HOFsedins's topic in Canucks Talk
Too many variables but I'll take a stab at it: 1) If the season resumes to some degree and we have playoffs, then the pick is business as usual and nothing changes. 2) If we have no regular season and playoffs based on win %, I think the pick still goes to TBL/NJD 3) If we have an abbreviated short playoffs and we're still in, I think the pick still goes 4) If we have the entire season cancelled then it's interesting, but I think we might have an option. Technically, the terms of the trade are "if the Canucks make the playoffs" then TBL get the pick. If there are no playoffs then technically we did not make the playoffs, so should keep the pick, which would be great because it is currently a 10th overall pick (probably 11 or 12th once win % factors in), but still a lottery pick. There might be an option for JB due to the circumstances to pass it up to next season or perhaps is a complete wash and we start over with next season as the first season again. Personally I hope there are still some form of playoffs, ideally the regular season gets cancelled, all injured bodies get back and we get good quality hockey playoffs start in 1-2 months time and we give up the pick. -
1. MVP - Markstrom, JT Miller a close second in my books Miller has carried this team offensively and the 1st PP unit. Pettersson really has coasted the last 10-20 games and Miller has been a workhorse on so many levels. Without him, this team's offence would be invisible. That being said, we can see the difference with and without Markstrom. From a questionable backup in his early days to semi-starter to arguably a top-10 goalie in the NHL, Markstrom won this team many points single-handedly. 2. Unsung Hero - Gaudette, Motte runner up Motte's been a force every time he's on the ice, throwing his body and winning big puck battles, but Gaudette has been so noticeable, despite his lack of real PP or PK time and playing only around 10 minutes a game. The kid has scored some big goals and GWG this season despite playing with plugs. On pace for 40-50 points as a rookie on 4th line minutes is remarkable. 3. Most Exciting Player - Miller, Hughes a close second. As flashy as Pettersson, Boeser and Toffoli are, Miller gets people going, he makes smart plays but also throws his body and gets the crowd excited. He runs this Canucks offence basically by himself with a bit of help from Pettersson lately too, but no doubt about it, he gets a buzz going every time he's got the puck in the offensive zone. I'd be tempted to give the award to Hughes because Miller isn't really that flashy, whereas Hughes is mesmerizing with the puck. 4. Best defenceman - Edler, Hughes second Controversial I know, but everyone who is lauding it over Hughes is being rediculously blinded. Yes, Hughes has racked up points and looks brilliant walking the blueline, making shots and in the occasional board battle and getting the puck up the ice. But Edler is arguably this team's most important player, certainly 3rd most IMO (behind Miller and Marky). He does everything, he scores points, he plays on the PP and PK and he's our top guy when it comes to matching up against top opponents. He has made hardly any mistakes this season (finally) and plays the body too. Edler is to the defence what Miller is to the offence, and Hughes is to our D what Petey is to the offence. For those who think Hughes brings more to the team than Edler, think about where this team would be without one or the other. Without Hughes no doubt, our PP suffers but we can replace a bit of offence loss easily. Without Edler, our defence gets shattered by opposing team's top lines, our PK struggles and we lose a leader. No doubt Hughes will be great one day, but Edler is still and may always be the best Canuck defenceman, and does it modestly and quietly without even some of the fans clearly appreciating.
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I'd be happy for them to freeze the season and just try to have playoffs start before it gets too hot, or a condensed playoffs like best of 3 or 5 if need be. Worst case scenario, end the season now, tally up the board based on win % and ROW, wait until end of May/June then start the playoffs. If there's time, normal 7 game series otherwise we make it shorter. Would make it interesting for sure, any team could win it.
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Looks like even if we play and lose to Arizona, our win % will be 0.564 the same as Calgary and we're in on ROW. In Calgary win, Winnipeg are on 0.543 and not playing tonight so we snag the last wildcard spot. So long as we don't play and lose to Arizona and Colorado, we're squeaking through into the playoffs if they have them.
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Might be quite good for the Canucks, get Markstrom and Tanev back for the home stretch. Lots of other teams are injured at the moment too so I'm sure a lot of teams wouldn't mind a delay.
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Unfortunate injury but he's done well this season, most say it's a 1-3 week injury so let's hope he's back for at least the last couple of regular season games. Missing our best goalie and arguably best defensive defenceman is going to be tricky, especially when Green isn't adjusting his run-and-gun style.
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2 man forecheck only when there's a high percentage chance of winning the puck, not always, and if we do, hang both D-men back or make sure it's only when we have solid defencemen on the ice and keep the defensive center deep. We get caught out on far too many odd-man rushes. I think our centers play far too high which is great for offence, but we've been victimized too many times. As the games get tighter, we need to check tighter and not let up so many chances, especially with Marky and now Tanev injured. I think it's as easy as starting with hanging a defensive center back to help defend and learning when to attack/forecheck hard and when to stop. We've done a miraculous job of pinching and rotating defencemen and centers, something Willie's coaching system and sometimes even AV's really struggled with, so commend Green for figuring that out. Our D-men pinch better than I've seen in a while and rarely get beat on odd-man rushes that way, because there's often a forward dropping back, but if the opposition have the puck and we throw 2 forecheckers forward, and a high center, they often all 3 get beat and we're faced with out D-men getting spread out on 3-on-2's and 4-on-3s etc. which don't end up going well.
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I agree that he has done admirably with these young players and plays a fast-tempo, exciting, aggressive style. This is why our offensive numbers are flourishing. My only problem with Green is that he hasn't adapted to loss of Markstrom and personel changes, and has not been very good at defending. Whether that's Green's fault or Baumgartner, this team needs better structure in defence, not just from the 6 guys on the blueline but from forwards too. I don't think we need to fire Green (unless he miraculously bows us out of the playoffs, then it's worth considering) but he needs to learn that we should not be "going" for it all the time, and that a 2-man forecheck and having a high center is a risky way to play the game. Now with Marky and Tanev out, arguably our two best defenders so to speak, I hope he learns his lesson from some disgraceful losses and learns when to "go" and when to not. As young as these players are, Green is learning in the NHL as well and this being his first playoff drive, he's learning what it takes to win but sadly not changing his style of play very much. He's sticking to his guns, and rightly so at times, but let's see if it makes the playoffs or not. I'd be ecstatic if this style brings us more victories and we make the playoffs, but if we don't Green is going to be closely scrutinized for not adjusting his gameplay when we needed to.
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The Coyotes are desperate and are hanging onto the playoff race by a thread but this is a huge season-defining game for them. They've toyed with us before when we've embarased ourselves defensively, let's hope we tighten up and not let it happen again. Luckily it looks like while our defence is still haemorrhaging chances, at least Demko has arrived. 6-2 Canucks, hope this is the start of gaining some traction.