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DownUndaCanuck

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Everything posted by DownUndaCanuck

  1. Say what you want about Gudas playing heavy, that late hard hit and holding the defenders stick, this is exactly the sort of player the Canucks need. Big strong veteran shutdown defenceman who just bullies the opponent. He was an older guy shipped around but is absolutely owning it in the playoffs. It's not really Ekblad or Forsling who are raising their games, it's Montour and Gudas. The Canucks don't have, and haven't had a defenceman like Gudas in a long time (maybe Jovo?). Florida's D is just so perfectly balanced it's no surprise they go through. If the Canucks could add a guy like him we'd be miles better. Mayfield wants to stay an Islander but he'd be a similar type of player. The hits Gudas has thrown this series on the pewny Leafs has changed the momentum. I know we had and they've got Schenn, but Schenn is a good little choir boy compared to Gudas. Came out of nowhere but he is the sort of player who just destroys the playoffs and we don't have one.
  2. There is always a chance that he doesn't become the player everyone expects right away and we try and buy-low. I know, I know, all the chat about being generational and the points he's put up, but maybe it takes him a good 5 years to reach his peak potential. Maybe he drops only say 50-60 points in his first season, and the same the following year on his dreadful team? Everyone is probably expecting he'll score like McDavid did when he came into the league. McDavid dropped what, a PPG for his first year (something like 40 in 40) then I'm pretty sure went straight on to 100pt seasons then on, and now that he's fully in the prime of his career, he's scoring at a 150pt pace, very close to 2PPG. That must be the trajectory everyone expects of Bedard, but what if he's more of a slow-boomer, especially with a much weaker team to play with? I know Chicago will probably stick it out, they're not going anywhere any time soon and this is only the beginning of their rebuild, but if he's a sophmore scoring under a PPG, what does it take to acquire him? Two firsts and a top player like Kuzmenko/Mik/Boeser? Even if he is just hovering at 80-90 points for the first say 3 years of his career, is he "bad enough" to be traded?
  3. Yeah this is it, the problem is he's just about 1 or so mil too expensive for contending teams. He's a fantastic 3rd line winger but most teams in the playoffs are so strapped for cash because they have a super expensive core or top guys, they can't afford to throw 5M at a 3rd liner. Just look at Toronto's terrible cap structure, everyone except for their big 4 or 5 are on a cap hit of 2M or under. They're not alone, a lot of other playoff teams are similar. They could afford 5M for a 2nd line winger but Garland just isn't scoring enough for that. It's a shame he's not a fantastic PKer, he's alright but he really should be better for the player he is - then he'd add some massive value to his game. If he could just hit 20 goals and be a good PKer, he'd be worth 5M for sure. Problem is he's consistently never been a consistent scorer.
  4. Yeah anything could happen, I doubt Benson drops to 11th though. If there was no Bedard he'd almost have lead the league in scoring. I think Leonard and Dvorsky have pushed their way into the top 8 or so, which means I think we might have a stab at ASP/Reinbacher or Moore. I really hope it's not down to guys like Sale, Cristall, Barlow etc., otherwise I'd be happy if we went a bit off the board and took Willander, Stenberg, Yager, Danielson etc. I know it sounds a bit silly but even picking 10th would probably get us a much better player, I know someone's going to drop out of the top-10 but to be honest the picks in the 8-10th overall spot seem a lot better than 11th onwards. A guy like Leonard might go 8 or 9th overall, whereas we might be left with someone like Wood or Yager. Funny how those few points towards the end of the season didn't seem like much back then but come draft time may be the difference between selecting ASP or a tier 5 guy.
  5. I find it hard to believe that Garland is negative value but that's how important cap is. His 5M deal was signed ages ago as well and hasn't aged well. 7-8M for OEL back in the day was a lot but look at these star defencemen getting 9-10M nowadays and Hughes on a 7M deal. None of it adds up. Garland at just under 5M isn't horrendous, it's just one winger too many right now for us. If we have to add a couple of picks to move Garland, I'd rather keep him and trade Beauvillier who again, you'd like to think has positive value in the scheme of things. The real issue is not many teams have cap space and these guys are young wingers who would ideally go towards a playoff team. If they're going to a retooling/rebuilding team, they'll happily eat our picks. I wonder if there's a lateral trade out there. Goodrow for Garland is an idea, not great because Goodrow is rubbish at faceoffs, 30+ and signed to a long deal, and only really a 30pt scorer, but he fills a positional need for us and could elevate his game a bit to play 3C minutes. We get around 1.5M in cap relief, NYR get a young winger to replace Tarasenko/Kane for a few years going forward and rid themselves of an older guy.
  6. With PA obviously going to have in-depth scouting on the Swedes, I do wonder if we go off-board and take a guy like Stenberg or Willander, especially if all the good guys are gone at 11. Lindstein is another guy but maybe a bit lower ranked. I know most scouts have these guys ranked in the late first or even early 2nd, but Button was saying Willander is part of the top-3 defencemen of this draft and he did have a solid juniors tournament, really looked like he was carrying the team to a similar extent to ASP. He's another decent-sized RD, plays a bit more of a two-way game, and going to Boston next year. 11th overall sounds way too high for Willander or Stenberg but you never know... If there's any way we lose all our main picks in the top-10 and can trade down to the late first and high second, I'd do it - could walk away with Stenberg as well as Willander or Strbak etc. I'm getting a bit cautious drafting Reinbacher so high, I think a lot of us are just looking at positional needs here and while I'm all for drafting some sort of defenceman, a lot of scouts are quite weary of him so will be interesting to see what Allvin's scouts think of him and where they rank him.
  7. I wonder which direction Chicago will go in now they're getting Bedard. They have a tonne of picks but Bedard is too good a player to start the rebuild with - he's fast-tracked so you ideally want to be halfway through or ending a rebuild when you get him. Realistically the other picks from this draft will take 1-4 years to make it to the NHL, and this is only the beginning - next year they'll get a top-3 pick and maybe even the year after that too, so it can be a long process, I'd say of around 5 years easily. By then Bedard will be in his early 20's and ready to drop some 100pt++ seasons. I don't think they'll want decent players just yet because it'll ruin their chances at a top pick next year. They don't even really have anyone on their team or prospect pool I'd want to be honest, maybe a stab at Korchinski if they want to give up on him early? Vancouver's 1st + an average prospect for Chicago's 1st + Korchinski? If they want to give Bedard a bit of help, Boeser is an option but I'd rather give them Beauvillier - a bit younger for their rebuild and we keep the better forward.
  8. Nurse and Pietrangelo suspended for the next game sure would make for fun hockey without both team's top defencemen. This is a great back and forth series, to be honest it looks like Edmonton is learning to score and play better 5 on 5 so sadly got to give them the edge, it's like a marathon right now and Edmonton is gaining some momentum, haven't seen enough consistently from Vegas yet.
  9. Unreal, ref gets in the way again, slows the puck down for Reilly when it should have gone all the way around to the Panther player, then he has a free pass for a breakaway. Sad if this game is decided by the refs physically, that goal really should have been blown dead and the same if JT scored on that breakaway. I know it can happen to either team at any time but it's pretty rubbish.
  10. Absolutely classic, Leafs playing terribly, no confidence, fluff a 4 on 1, have a dreadful powerplay with so many bad entries and passes and the linesman kicks the puck in for them.
  11. Amazing, Toronto are down 3-0 in the series, their stars have scored nothing and should be under heat, Matthews completely misses the net on an early 2 on 1 and here the SN panel are gushing over how they're checking and have no high danger chances either way... This team could and probably will get swept and they'll still be saying Toronto did a great job not getting blown out every night.
  12. As much as we'd all love Schneider, he must be one of the many young untouchables across the league. I'd argue they don't have room for him in their future top-4 with Fox and Trouba but maybe they plan to leave him on their bottom pairing until Trouba gets older and then gradually swap them out. I thought Goodrow might be a nice 3C option for 3.4M but he is 30 years old now. If they're going to let their UFA wingers walk, I wonder if we can offer them Beauvillier or Garland for Goodrow straight up? They take 1-2M more cap space, we take the older less offensive player. He's far from a great 3C, only a 30pt player, not great at faceoffs, but if we can relieve ourselves of some annoying cap and get a sort of center, that'd be great. I'd do Garland for Goodrow, probably would need a sweetener if it's Beauvillier.
  13. Watching the Panthers, their defence is so well built for these new-age playoffs. They've got big mean, strong physical guys like Gudas, Ekblad and Staal, and two great puck movers in Forsling and Montour who skate so well. Great mix of young and old guys but they're all still just about in their prime. Such a versatile defence, that's what we should aim for.
  14. Fair choices, Draisaitl gets snubbed but Pasta had 60+ goals which probably gets him in. Easy McDavid win obviously anyway.
  15. Button has ASP as a top 5 player in the draft. I think that's a bit much but I think he'll go top 10 easily, scouts will surely see the same thing Button sees. Reinbacher might be available, boy we'd be unlucky if they're both gone but if they are, a guy like Moore, Dvorsky, Benson or Leonard will be available. I'm hoping for Reinbacher, ASP, Dvorsky or Leonard and probably in that order.
  16. Interesting to hear what Button thinks, he lives and breathes junior hockey. He's been so high on ASP for a long time and the recent Juniors tournie just bumped that up a lot. To hear he thinks he's a top-5 player in the draft is pretty nuts but I would say top-6 or 7 for sure. Obviously high on Reinbacher but interesting to see that he thinks Willander is in that same level. He was gushing over him in the U18 tournament and to be fair Willander ran the show a lot of the time. I think Lindstein deserves a special mention but maybe he drops down to the Simashev category. 100% agree with him that we have to focus on a defenceman. Unless there's some miracle Dvorsky/Leonard/Benson floating around 11OA, we have to take a defenceman and even then, I'd have a hard think about it. Button knows our team is solid up front, solid in net and he said it himself - trash on defence - and the best way to fix that is through the draft, and we have a glorious chance at it now. Interesting to see how much stock Allvin puts into these external guys but they've been around the sport a long, long time.
  17. We need to look at young RDs who might be ready for a full top-4 AHL role next year and then hopefully slot into the NHL the following year, otherwise we might as well draft ASP or Reinbacher who will hopefully fall to us. So, the 11th overall for a guy like Schneider, Brock Faber, Scott Morrow (+ a later pick) etc. There's tonnes out there, problem is their own team are developing and grooming them all nicely so they'd have to be blown away with whichever player is available at 11OA.
  18. The best we can hope for now is that Bedard ends up being atrocious defensively like McDavid. He's going to drop a PPG in his first year and then 100pts onwards, probably 150+ at some point like McDavid. He's small but pretty solid and throws his body around at times, but let's just hope that like McDavid, he's always a bit sloppy defensively. If he ends up being defensively capable like Crosby then it's all over, but if he's caught cheating or lacking back-checking then honestly I'd rather have Petey... Your top center has to be able to defend the other team's top line, then the out-scoring comes next. Just look at what's happening in the playoffs right now. Even peak McDavid and Draisaitl are down in a series they should be cruising in, and the same can be said of Matthews and Marner.
  19. 11th overall for Schneider Sign Graves 5x5M Dump Garland and Myers for our 3rd + 4th rounders Hughes - Schneider Graves - Hronek OEL - Burroughs
  20. The sweetest thing would be that they can't build a winner around Bedard but I don't see that happening. I know their head office is all different but that organization looks like they know how to tank by the way they've constructed their roster and acquired all these picks. Unless the rest of their scouting and drafting is terrible...
  21. It could happen, everyone seems pretty high on Smith right now and Michkov could and should easily go in the top-4. I doubt Montreal would be stupid enough to move the 5OA but it depends how high they are on Suzuki and Dach to run the center jobs for them. They could certainly use some top young defencemen, and the 11OA could surely be enough to get them one of Reinbacher or ASP who would complement Guhle well. Hoglander + Rathbone + 11OA enough? The new Ballard + Raymond + 1st. If I were Montreal and Leo Carlsson fell into my lap at 5th overall, you take him and run though. He could be a 80-100pt big strong center who could play with Slaf and make a nightmare of a line for opponents.
  22. Size is no doubt important, I think on biometrics we're something like the smallest and lightest team in the league, or bottom 3 anyway, and that's quite nuts considering Myers knocks a lot of those averages out of whack. The problem is the skill and speed - does it match up with the frame. Look at a guy like Leo Carlsson, he is going to me a monster in the NHL. He's got a massive frame but is so quick and has NHL-ready hands. I think the problem is that everyone's skill looks great in junior but doesn't continue to develop later on, whereas a lot of purely skilled guys get better and better (say, like Pettersson). I remember when we went hard over Virtanen, not just because of his size but he skated really well and had a wicked shot on the fly in junior. He was gritty, the perfect player, but obviously he never worked out. Without getting into it too much, I think he just didn't have enough of an offensive IQ to match and then he stopped using his body physically, and eventually ran into all the other issues, but it started with poor offensive hockey IQ. If there's a guy out there with top-end offensive IQ, hands/skill and a big frame then great. Is Wood that guy...ehh I'm not sure. The big guys in this top end of the draft are Fantilli, Carlsson, Dvorsky's pretty heavy, Reinbacher, Wood, Simashev, Honzek and But. No doubt some of those guys are going to be real stars, Carlsson, Fantilli and I'd argue Dvorsky's offensive talent is pretty superior and should be good enough to give them long NHL careers. I'm sure Wood will be decent as well but guys like Honzek and But are a bit riskier. I think say 5 years ago you needed your top guys to be massive. O'Reilly, Kopitar, even Toews and Crosby were pretty physical, strong top line centers who would check the opponent's top players to death. The top defencemen were monsters, guys like Hedman especially just knew how to own a playoff series. Now things are changing towards skill and PPs more and more every day so maybe it's not as important, but I think you need guys scattered throughout your lineup. I'd ideally have a top two way center with top end skill, some skilled top-6 wingers, some gritty guys on a checking 3rd line and a bunch of physical shutdown defencemen in my lineup with one puck moving defenceman. Ironically, we're pretty close with that on the Canucks right now, just missing some mean shutdown defencemen.
  23. Sadly this is the truth, everyone knows it - you need premium top-end talent on your team. You don't get this talent any other way, you can rarely sign it (for what it's worth), you can never trade for it (Yzerman isn't giving their franchise defenceman for a 1st + 2nd), you just have to draft it. That's where the quality is. Getting one or two first overall picks sure helps. I'd argue it's not a guarantee, looking at the last 1st overalls of the last 20 years, there's a lot of flops there for sure, but the rest are pretty much all Cup winners (or going to be cup winners). The Devils' two centers and the Sabres two defencemen 1st overalls really should win some Cups with their teams but we'll see. In any case, the first step is getting world-class talent. You could argue that Petey and Hughes are those guys. Petey is a 100+ point two-way center who's still young, you could argue he'd go 1st overall in the 2020 or 2019 draft. Hughes is a record holding assist machine and IMO should be top-5 in Norris voting. He's a year older than 1st overall Dahlin, is he better than him? It's pretty close. So I suppose you could be naive and argue we have two first overall picks on our team. The thing which takes this to the next step is later round drafting which we suck at. Good teams find absolute gems in the 2nd round. IMO this is the round which makes or breaks teams. Look at teams like Dallas and mainly Chicago's dynasty - they got guys like Crawford, Sharp (a 3rd) and Keith in the 2nd round. Most of the greatest goalies go in the high 2nd round. Great, we've got Demko, that was a big win for us, but where are these other guys? Hard to find them when we piss away our 2nd round picks like nothing. This upcoming draft's 2nd round is almost a first round for most other drafts and we lost it - IMO the big stinging point of the Hronek deal and Yzerman knows it. We've loaded up on 3rds and 4ths but I don't know if I have that much faith in our scouting department to find gems with these later picks, but good teams find a way. The irony of dealing with Yzerman is that we just got a first-hand lesson in how to create a monster for long-term success. Groom a defenceman, trade him while he's injured and essentially sell-high, when you have that position covered by the next younger generation of talent with more upside. They essentially trade their what, 3rd string defenceman for two very high picks who no doubt Stevie Y will turn into two players better than Hronek and just keep increasing the value of that club steadily. Don't get me wrong, I love the move and was shocked by Allvin's kahunas, but if there was ever a time to hang on to your 1st and 2nd round picks it would be this - the deepest draft anyone can ever remember where the first what, top 5 picks are essentially first overalls on most other drafts.
  24. https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds Looks like 11.5% but regardless, the odds weren't in their favour exactly. It's not ground-breaking that the 3rd last team gets the 1st overall. Looking back only 4 teams have moved up from 3rd or lower to get the 1st overall in the last 18 years but it does seem to happen enough, just couldn't have happened to a less-deserving franchise.
  25. Tough loss for him and the Avs, he's already 30 so coming back when he's 31-32 is going to be rough. Don't think he'll ever be able to get back up to speed, even after a year of recovery and rehab, and he's on a 7M cap hit for the Avs who are supposed to be peaking now. Really unfortunately for such a high-flying team, this and the Kadri loss really brings them back down to Earth whereas they should have been starting a dynasty. Got to wonder where the Avs go from here, now they're without their captain and a top line scorer, as well as a decent center, surely they go out and try and find someone, even a top-6 scorer at that, but they're right up against the cap, even with Landeskog on LTIR. I think they'll try and keep Compher and Rodrigues in the 2C and 3C slots, or maybe replace Rodrigues with Barbashev. Erik and Jack Johnson leaving frees up a good 7M but Byram needs re-signing and Mac gets a 6M raise so they're pretty tight. I can't imagine who they could try and get rid of, they're thin up front, maybe Girard or Manson could be slightly expendable with Byram expecting to take more of a role. Manson played bottom pairing minutes (if that) the last few games, 10 points in 27 something games and costs them 4.5M, not to mention is over 30. Those minutes could easily be replaced internally or by a cheap UFA. Girard has been tempting, I know he's under-sized but he plays pretty decent top-4 minutes and is versatile, can play left or right. If they want cheap young guys to fill roles in their lineup, Girard for Hoglander +++ (dare I say, Rathbone)?
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