DownUndaCanuck

Last year everyone predicted a 3rd in the division to 1st or 2nd wild card spot. This off-season we've made some big, great moves to solidify the defence, our forwards should be even better and our stars even better with a healthy Demko all year. That being said, look at our division: Vegas - just won the Cup, no signs of slowing down. Edmonton - going head to head with contenders these days. LAK - made some bold moves, stronger up front, they're well ahead of us now trying to etch their way into the contender category. Seattle - crazy depth of course, in the LAK category, solid playoff team and pushing to become a contender. Calgary - trash team but depends on how their stars Huberdeau and Kadri (and their ageing defence and goalie) perform under a new coach, they could drop off but will probably remain around the same - outside of the playoff race looking in. SJS - trash Anaheim - trash but with a bit more firepower next year Looking over to the Central: Colorado - not much improvement but their stars will make them contenders as long as they're around. Dallas - surprisingly solid and deep in the playoffs and their core is still very young, they're close to a decent contending team. Minnesota - hard to say where they'll go, I think they'll regress a bit. They have a solid bunch of defencemen, good young forwards and top goalies but I think they drop back a bit. In 2 years time when that 14M dead cap is gone, watch out, that's basically two top players to add to the team. Winnipeg - all depends on what happens to Hellebuyk, but even if he stays I think that team is in a real state. They need some big moves, shake up the core. Think they're getting a bit too toxic and drop down a bit and under-perform. Nashville - bottom of the league area. They have around 9M in dead cap next year, a lot more the next few years, have a fair few picks but have a bunch of kids coming in to play under 1M in cap hits. They made some interesting moves but they're going to surely be a bottom team for a few years. Saros and Forsberg and Josi might keep them kind-of relevant but not sure what the ROR move was for, they're going to struggle. St Louis - a bit of a Calgary-problem, old goalie who's surely going to be rubbish next year, young forwards but none of them are truly elite and their D isn't anything amazing anymore to be honest. I think they'll struggle and be well out of a playoff spot and end up being a big time seller. Arizona - trash Chicago - trash On that note I think we'll end up seeing Vegas, Edmonton and LAK easily take top 3 in our division (LA maybe even higher than Edmonton with PLD and Gavrikov in the fold). Seattle a very close 4th takes one of the wild card spots. In the Central, it's a bit more up in the air but I think Dallas takes the division, Colorado second and one of Winnipeg or Minnesota the last spot (it's a real coin toss, right now I'll give it to Winnipeg depending on how the drama all goes). So that last wild card spot is really down to the Canucks, Flames and maybe Minnesota. Are we better than those two teams? I think we can be. I doubt we push our way into the top-4 of the division. We've got a great core like Dallas but lack their size and depth but you never know. It's not great but I think we take the last wild card spot. Not really where you want to be - headed into a Vegas first round matchup on the road is basically a white wash anyway and waste of a year, but at least it's something.

Let's swing for the fences. Boeser + Rathbone for Marcus Pettersson + Granlund Both teams just about cap compliant. We give up a top young scorer, they give up a top young defenceman and big time Granlund cap dump for the value difference. Rathbone as LD insurance but they have Graves, Ruuta and Rathbone on the left now. Mikheyev - Pettersson - Kuzmenko Beauvillier - Miller - Podkolzin Blueger - Granlund - Garland Joshua - Aman - Hoglander Hughes - Cole Pettersson - Hronek Soucy - Myers Hirose Irwin Obviously weaker on wing, expecting Podz and Hoglander to step into big roles, and Granlund is very risky. If he's bad, who cares, we can eat 2 years of bad cap hit for a low-cap M. Pettersson. If he's good, steal of the century - and he wasn't that far removed from >0.5PPG scoring. Most importantly we get a proper shutdown LD to take some heavy minutes off Hughes. I know Cole and Soucy are nice, but they've averaged 19 and 16 minutes per game respectively the last few seasons. Petey 3.0 and Hronek form a brilliant shutdown pairing we haven't had in a long time.

Very cheap bridge deal, it'll be interesting to say how all their kids battle for ice time on defence. Last year they were superb but lose their top 2 defencemen. I think next season could go either way.

We have 1.5M in cap with LTIR, almost no chance of flipping our expensive wingers so don't really see how it could work. I'd rather we sign Puis Suter. If we can somehow move cap around (maybe even flip Myers...) I'd be all for trying Dumba on a 1 year 2-3M deal but surely he wouldn't take that. He can play with Hughes at times if he's good enough/better than Cole but for the most part he'd probably be on our bottom pairing which really is Myer's spot. If he somehow plays like he did in his prime, this would be dangerous: Hughes - Dumba Cole - Hronek Soucy - Myers Hirose Irwin

Steal of the draft or potentially a bust, there's no in between. I can see him end up being a Point-like 90pt player.

Boeser + 1st enough for Pesce? I'd love to do scraps like Beauvillier + 1st + Rathbone but doubt they bite. Then again if Pesce is on his way out maybe his value drops? Is there a world we give them Myers 50% retained? Beau + Myers + pick?

I think the key is that they're all good 2 way guys, solid physically and defensively. I think a good top defensive center is more important than a skilled 100pt guy when it comes to the playoffs.

Yikes, he only put up 67 pts last year. I know he's always hovering around a PPG but 35G and 67 points is good for most contending team's 2nd line center. Petey is easily worth 1-2M more than Aho then. You've got to think Aho is due a 90+ pt season at some point but you never know, he's a consistent 60-80pt player. Makes Miller at 8M not look too shabby.

I'd be all for this. If Pearson is healthy though and still half-good he'd be a solid addition to our 3rd line, think Pearson - Blueger - Garland would be a pretty gritty forechecking line, and he's a great PKer too. If he's slow or not good enough anymore, then I agree - trade or dump him to the AHL. I'd love to think that PDG is buried in Abby as well, so that opens up space for Hoglander or Podkolzin, but also Suter. Mikheyev - Pettersson - Kuzmenko Beauvillier - Miller - Boeser Suter - Blueger - Garland Joshua - Aman - Hoglander PDG Studnicka Podkolzin etc.

Don't know, Tocchet really liked PDG with Miller. He was a good forechecker, is a big body and I noticed a lot of neat passes and chemistry with Miller. 6 goals in 30 games is good for like 16G pace over a year, which isn't that dissimilar to what Garland and Boeser produced... I agree though, I'd rather someone like Beauvillier or Podkolzin steals the spot but Tocchet loves the combination of a grinder, playmaker and sniper. On defence yeah Brisebois and Wolanin have a good chance, I think Wolanin is the best all-around option, Brisebois is a step below him, Rathbone is the best offensively but weakest defensively, Irwin is the most solid physically and maybe defensively but is quite slow now, and Hirose is very quick, decent defensively and makes a great first pass. Wolanin was IMO our best player last pre-season and the AHL's best defenceman all season long, I think he deserves a decent shot, but I liked Hirose-Myers in the few games they played together and we've got to groom Hirose well, ideally at the NHL level. They'll all duke it out in training camp and pre-season and we'll probably do a little rotation depending on our opponents.

Yeah I think you're right, but I'm hoping the bums are Garland and Beauvillier. PDG worked his butt off last year and Tocchet liked his chemistry with Miller and his forechecking ability, but he's realistically an AHL player up in our top-6. Surely we've got to have one of our many other wingers do that job better and bring more offence. I'm looking at Hoglander and Podkolzin to steal minutes off PDG, Garland and Beauvillier. I think Mikheyev, Kuzmenko and Boeser all remain in our top-6 - they've got enough quality and top-end skill, but those middle-tier wingers all have to fight it out for minutes.

To be honest I'd rather let our kids take those jobs than these bottom of the barrel UFAs. I do like Suter though and think we could use another bottom-6 center who could play on the wing, just because Aman and Blueger is all we have right now really. I wouldn't be against Dumba if he was able to be signed stupidly cheaply (like 2M) but even then, he's competing against Myers for the bottom pairing RD spot. I see our roster like this right now: Mikheyev - Pettersson - Kuzmenko PDG - Miller - Boeser Beauvillier - Blueger - Garland Joshua - Aman - Hoglander Podkolzin Don't think we need anymore wingers, we need to give Hoglander and Podkolzin a good chance to take some minutes. PDG on the 2nd line will surely be up in the air and we'll see a lot of rotation, but if we can't move Beauvillier or Garland then we don't really have any room for another winger. Heinen is decent but I'd rather just stick to what we have if we can't flip Garland. Hughes - Cole Soucy - Hronek Hirose - Myers Irwin Rathbone Our defence is far from ideal but better than last year. Cole is a 19 minute guy who I think will do well on the top pairing. Soucy is a 16 minute bottom pairing guy being thrust into a bigger role, so may do well, but he may get exposed with bigger responsibilities. That bottom pairing spot is up for grabs next to Myers - Hirose or Irwin will probably snag it, I don't see Rathbone strong enough defensively to get it done. Basically, we've got a lot of bottom pairing options and have Irwin as a back-up in case those kids don't do well. The only weakness or concern is really in the middle of defence. Hughes and Hronek are great. Cole is decent. Soucy could be a top-4 weak-link depending on how he does with increased minutes and shutdown responsibilities. I don't see where Dumba would fit in all this unless he played out of his socks on the top pairing with Hughes and bumps Cole and Soucy down a pairing, but I doubt Dumba would be that good. What we could use is a solid top-4 guy like Hanifin or Pesce to push everyone down to where they were essentially playing last year on their respective depth charts. I think regardless, we'll have around 1.4M in cap space after LTIR so not really much room for anyone decent. I wouldn't mind Puis Suter though if he can slot in somewhere in the bottom-6 and take the odd faceoff for us.

Not sure where he's going to play, that defence is so stacked on the left and right sides. Orlov is a decent puck mover but now they've got another one. For 1.6M he'll probably be their 3rd pairing RD which is nuts. Orlov - Burns Slavin - Pesce Skeij - DeAngelo Chatfield That 3rd pairing is better than most teams top pairings. Skeij is a premier defensive defenceman, DeAngelo is trash defensively but one of the best puck movers in the game whether you like him or hate him. Unreal depth.

He's going to drop 50-60 points as a 1.6M player which is pretty nuts, all drama aside. Might end up being the best bang for your buck player next year apart from say Bedard.

Dubas is surely going to be all over this. You know he's going to be trying to get rid of Petry and/or Granlund (especially after acquiring Eller), and will throw away picks (and whatever prospects they have) to get it done. It'll be a desperate move but why not if you've still got Crosby, Malkin and maybe Letang around for a bit longer? They really need solid defensive defencemen to complement Karlsson and they have that in Doumulin and now Graves too. As for Carolina I'd be pretty hesitant to get that desperate. They have a good thing going, would have gone deeper last year if it wasn't for their top player injuries, and their defence is one of the best in the league. They could use a real solid puck mover like Karlsson, sure, but I'm not sure how he'd fit into their tight, rigid structure. Maybe he'd get free reign to skate around but surely not like he does in San Jose and that'll drop his effectiveness a lot. Also, they won the gamble on getting an old Burns but I'm not sure if it'll work twice. Worst of all, they're going to probably lose Pesce for it/despite it anyway.

Points get you paid, before last season Dunn was a 20-30 point guy consistently and then he goes and doubles his point totals and gets paid big time. No defensive defenceman will ever get paid 7M+ sadly. Dunn is pretty decent defensively though I'd say, not that solid but boy did he take a leap offensively, 50 assists is pretty impressive. 4 years is wise by both teams, sort of like a long bridge deal. I would have given him a 2 year deal if I were Seattle - that is just one big season amongst a bunch of average seasons. If he dips back to 20-30 points for the next 3-4 years, ouch, that's an expensive defenceman. On to Hronek who has hovered around 40-50 points, that seems to get you around 6M or so. Get to the 60-70 point plateau and you're in 7-8M. Hughes obviously took a bit of a discount and had term, and is probably worth 8-9M easily, so he's a nice bench-mark to set for all the other guys who plan to sign - no one can earn more (or close) to him, a bit like what we've got going with Petey and Miller. In contrast, look at the mess the "leaders" are causing in Toronto - everyone wants to be the top dog and get paid more and more, leaving nothing for anyone else.

If Verhaeghe can come out of nowhere and drop 42G on a team which barely made the playoffs, Brock can hit some big numbers too. Every year there's a couple of guys who jump ahead in the prime of their careers and take the next step forward. Brock is ready for that. A lot of how he does will come down to his line-mates, he'll start on our 2nd line with Miller. Hopefully Miller is still good for PPG hockey next year, if he dips then Brock will struggle. There might be a world in which Mikheyev or Kuzmenko lose their spot to Brock on the top line and then look out...Petey will turn him into a machine. I know they haven't had the best chemistry before but Petey is entering the prime of his career - he can turn anyone into a 30-40G scorer.

People talk about his goal of 30G. I think he'll be one of the candidates for a big breakout season across the league. Not to compare him to guys like Robertson, but look how some young guys just suddenly take a massive jump one year. Brock has been pretty consistently mediocre for a while but surely things are lining up, and he was IMO (all homer-ism aside) one of our best players in the last 20 games of the season, pretty much a PPG scorer. I'm predicting 37G 41A for Brock next season.

13M is outrageous money when you consider Makar is 8M and Demko is 5M. I know which 13M I'd rather have to help a team win. This big deals are ruining the depth of teams. You usually build around 2-3 expensive stars, Toronto have decided to build around many more and pay them far more. They'll never win this top heavy way if their stars disappear in the postseason.

I think if we could have moved Garland for any positive value, it would have happened by now. Even if we could have moved him at the cost of a 3rd or 4th he'd be gone by now. Teams must be asking for a 2nd or more and that just isn't worth moving him. I wonder if Beauvillier has been dangled, or whether our new management wouldn't dare trade a player they just acquired as a pride sort of thing, which I can understand. Regardless, one of those many wingers needs to go to let our kids (much cheaper options) break into the league. Hoglander and Podkolzin are chomping at the bit and can do pretty much the same job as Beauvillier and Garland (if not now then next year) for what, an eighth of the cost?

Good bridge deal, he'll go one of two ways - either mellow out or explode offensively. I think he'll be a PPG scorer by the end of this deal.

Solid defensive centers all the way in NJD now, that's how you build a cup winner. Their D changeing up will be interesting, losing Severson and Graves is a big hit but those kids will be close to ready.

The Florida vs Vegas series was another great example of toughness of a different kind. Florida got decimated with injuries, a bit like how the 2011 Canucks got broken down, whereas Vegas just withstood everything physically. That may be part to do with size but it's also to do with endurance. That's a different kind of toughness. A bit like a boxer going into the deep rounds, Florida went deep but really were broken by the end with nothing left in the tank, a bit like the 2011 Canucks.

Completely different era but toughness has always been a factor in the playoffs. I think it dipped a bit but it's clearly back now. Size and toughness. You could go and argue one further that you really need a MASSIVE solid, physical defence with 1-2 puck movers to shut down the opponents, then second-most importantly you need good two-way forwards. They don't have to be massive, they just have to be solid defensively and aware and grind or play hard. We saw a lot of big centers win championships recently (Kopitar, O'Reilly etc.) but I don't think that's a necessity, I think they just have to be good enough defensively to check the other forwards, but size on defence is key. Then of course, good goaltending. The obvious comparable is the 2011 finals, we had a relatively small team with some solid forwards, elite PP and a pretty versatile defence, but it was far from a physical defence whereas Boston just destroyed us physically over the series. They had monsters on their blueline who literally broke our forwards and we couldn't get past them, whereas their forwards were so good defensively they checked us and eventually, they managed to score against our relatively small defence. I think you can win with small forwards - just look at Chicago, heck even Tampa. Guys like Kucherov, Point, Toews, Kane etc. are running circles around teams but they're all very solid defensively and work hard, but they're not massive. Sure, their depth guys are big, but their top guys aren't. Meanwhile, look at those defences. Seabrook, Keith, Hedman. Two-way beasts. Going forward, that's why I like Allvin's UFA acquisitions - they bring some much needed size and grit to our blueline. We can get by up-front, we've got decent two-way forwards, we could use some size in our bottom-6, but on defence we needed to get stronger physically and we did. We need to keep that going, especially next year with Myers out and Cole a year older, we'll need some more size to keep coming in on the blueline.

A 1st and 2nd got Hronek - a top-4 25 year old two-way RD. A 1st and two seconds (kind of similar value to Jeannot, dare I say even less) managed to acquire a prime top defenceman like Chychrun (or even Provorov). I get paying a premium for young guys on cheap contracts, but Jeannot isn't even that good. One 24, 40ish point season and that's it? Just because he's big, hits and racks up PIMs he seems to get a high trade value (but low salary value). Even at his best season he was basically a 3rd line winger. I'd rather have a top-4 (arguably top-2) defenceman than a 3rd line grinder, surely you can acquire these guys elsewhere much cheaper or just draft a big body and develop them yourself.