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Ray_Cathode

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Everything posted by Ray_Cathode

  1. At this point, Juolevi is just not good enough. If he improves his skating and his fitness... maybe. I think the Canucks will make a deal with Tryamkin. We need a D that can play a physical game and still make good outlet plays - that puts him ahead of Fantenburg and Benn and miles ahead of the Juolevi of today. Defensively, Brisebois is way ahead of Juolevi - Juolevi brings decent O from the D, but is that what we need when Hughes and Edler are ahead of him?
  2. They have resisted bringing up Rafferty all year even though he is clearly the cream of the Utica crop. Someone on the thread mentioned player protection or financial reasons for that my foggy brain can’t remember which.
  3. Flip a coin on Rafferty and Rathbone among the D. Unless Juolevi can improve his fitness and his skating I can't see how Juolevi can play in the NHL. Woo is an interesting player, but I think he needs at least year in Utica.
  4. Yikes! In this game we had multiple examples of more than one player going to the opposition player with the puck, thus leaving players open - this is how kids play when they don;t trust their teammates to make the play or do the right thing in their own end. Most of the players are trying to do the other guy's job, probably with the idea that he is being supportive and helpful to his teammates. Not so, not trusting his teammates to do their job is neither supportive nor helpful, it is a recipe for giving up easy goals to an underpowered, injury ridden, tired, hurting team that does not do that. In the opposition end it is characterized by trying to do too much, overpassing, holding the puck while skating oneself into a place where neither a pass, nor another move is possible. Pettersson scored on a play where he had no other option but to go to the net directly. This type of play in our own end makes our D look awful... all of them.
  5. See J.D. Burke's other Tweets The Canucks weren’t the only one interested in MacEwen, per Friedman’s report. That fact that they got him may seem like a victory, but it probably shouldn’t. Ryan Biech delved into MacEwen’s numbers after the Friedman article, and found several red flags, including his sudden boost in production with talented linemates, a suspiciously high percentage of secondary assists, and a large percentage of power play goals. But there’s plenty more where that came from, and it doesn’t even touch on what I perceive to be the biggest and reddest flag of them all. MacEwen has been noted as a “late bloomer”, which is really just code for “bad until he got so old that he could thrive on a top line with substantially better and younger players”. Sometimes these CHL free agents were overlooked because of some perceived flaw (often related, but not limited to, size). In those case, teams are able to pick up players that were passed over despite having promising numbers or other attributes, taking advantage of what we’d call a market inefficiency. Troy Stecher would be a great example of this – his numbers in Junior A and through his underclassmen years at college were draft worthy, but he was 5-foot-9. Players like MacEwen are the exact opposite. They look like what traditional hockey minds expect players to look like. The reason that they don’t get drafted is not because of some sort of bias, but because they legitimately don’t deserve to be drafted. When we’re projecting prospects, we always have to be wary of age – players develop an awful lot in the approximately four years they spend in junior hockey. Even when looking at older prospects, you can tell a lot about their futures when you look at how they performed in their 17-year old (draft year), or even 16-year old (draft-minus-one) seasons. Or, as the case may be, where they played. A very prominent, yet easy to spot red flag for North American junior players is when they aren’t playing Major Junior by the their draft year. An exception might be that the player is trying to maintain NCAA eligibility – of course, if they end up playing in the CHL later on, that probably wasn’t the reason they weren’t in the CHL earlier. MacEwen represents this type of player. In the first year that he was eligible for the NHL Entry Draft, MacEwen was suiting up for the Amherst Ramblers of the Maritime Hockey League (MJAHL). Worse, he recorded just 14 points in 50 games that year. The following year he showed substantial improvement at that level, scoring 29 goals and 52 points in 46 games, earning some time in the QMJHL, where he produced two points in nine games. To reiterate, that’s two points in nine games in the QMJHL in his draft-plus-one season. In 2015-16, he again made a large improvement, this time scoring 10 goals and 40 points in 66 games, then in his draft-plus-two season. Last offseason, MacEwen was traded to the Gatineau Olympiques, a substantially better team, and has again improved to 27 goals and 62 points in 59 games. He’s now an overager in his draft-plus-three season. MacEwen has clearly shown improvement each year. That’s a good thing, but even with a good slope, the numbers look bad if the intercept is much lower than it should be. In other words, his year-to-year improvement doesn’t make up for the fact that his production is still about two years behind where we’d expect it to be from a player that has any chance to make the NHL. As mentioned off the hop, this a complete waste of an NHL contract spot, of which teams are only able to hold 50 at once, making them a bit of a commodity. While we’ve argued ad nauseam that contract spots should be treated as such, the Canucks have seemed intent on throwing at last one away each year on junior players (not to even mention the contracts they waste on professional players). This is the third straight spring that the Canucks have given a contract to a CHL player that simply didn’t deserve it – the first being their own draft pick, Mackenze Stewart, in 2015, and then free agent Yan-Pavel Laplante, also of the Gatineau Olympiques, in 2016. Stewart is now toiling in the ECHL with the Alaska Aces, with 10 points in 54 games, while Laplate is producing at a half-point per game for those same Aces, nearing his 22nd birthday. The Canucks tried to force both on to the roster of the Utica Comets at various points, but Travis Green was having none of it. Stewart saw four games of action – with limited minutes – in 2015-16 before being dispatched to the ECHL. There he lasted six games before being sent back to junior, where he had to find a new team because his former one wasn’t interested in able to take him back. Laplante played in 13 games for the Comets this season, interspersed with at least 12 healthy scratches (he missed approximately 11 more due to injury, but it is difficult to tell when he became healthy, since he couldn’t get back into the lineup). He had a single solitary assist in that time. This is the future that I envision for Zack MacEwen. A few weeks of limited minutes and healthy scratches for Utica in 2017-18 before being dispatched to whichever ECHL affiliate is housing their cast offs. That’s fine enough for players on American League contracts, but it’s pretty embarrassing for a team to have that many NHL contracts in the ECHL, not because the talent level on the AHL team is too good, but because they can’t cut it at the next level. ELC’s cannot be bought out. The team that signed them must suffer through them until they have run their course. I’d think less of the Canucks if they weren’t regretting the contract they gave to Mackenze Stewart two years ago (as nice of a boy as he seems to be). The Canucks are at 46 out of their 50 available contract spots, assuming MacEwen slides and kicks in next season. That’s four spots available to sign NCAA free agents (with which they did very well last year getting Troy Stecher) as well as some of their own drafted players that may be ready to turn pro. They’re closer to the limit than they need to be for no good reason. The Canucks seem intent on finding another Alex Burrows. The recently traded (but never forgotten) forward’s backstory is legendary in Canucks lore. Like MacEwen, Burrows didn’t become a full time CHL player until his draft-plus-two season, and it took him another season after that to get above a point-per-game in that league. (Ironically, Burrows; draft-plus-two season comes up as a match to MacEwen’s draft-plus-two season). Burrows had to try out for an ECHL team the following year to continue playing hockey. We all know what happened after that. Burrows continued his ascent all the way to one of the NHL’s best first lines, potting more than 25 goals in four straight seasons. A remarkable tale that serves to tell us that great players can come from anywhere. But a little reality is in order. For every Alex Burrows, there are hundreds more players that never play a single NHL game, or can’t even stick on an AHL roster. As much as I appreciate Burrows and love the journey he took to the NHL, it’s a player type that I’d bet against ten times out of ten, especially if it were my job on the line, doling out contracts. Cohort models like the pGPS system should never be taken as gospel, but you can safely consider them as something more similar to betting odds, and these odds indicate that using a contract on MacEwen is a bad bet to make. His limited successful matches each season make for distractingly high Expected Production scores, but the smart money knows to look at the bottom, where his Expected Success Percentage is flatlining. Parting Comments While this represents a pointless and disappointing use of resources, it’s still not enough to dampen the spirits of Canucks fans after the stellar trade deadline that Jim Benning had himself. In the end, the value added by the acquisitions of Jonathan Dahlen and Nikolay Goldobin is a hundred times greater than the value lost by throwing away a contract on a player like Zack MacEwen. But it creates a confusing reality for Canucks fans. Which is the real Jim Benning? The GM who acquires skilled players that have great numbers relative to their league and age, or the GM who signs character players that work hard, but have underwhelmed statistically or taken advantage of favourable age circumstances. While this move may seem inconsequential, it follows from the same kind of thinking that leads to $10+ million contracts for the Luca Sbisa’s and Derek Dorsett’s of the world. Of course it’s possible that every GM is capable of making both good and bad decisions. But for fans that thought that Jim Benning had turned a corner, we’re left wondering if Jim Benning was temporarily possessed at the deadline and has since returned to his previous ways. I think MacEwen must have read this and answered with a resounding Ef you big mouth bone head. Gattaca! Gattaca!
  6. He has played both RW and C in Utica, and did kill penalties for a while. It would serve him well to learn PK skills - there will definitely be a slot as the Eriksson, Sutter and Beagle contracts run out. He might end up being our Grabner redux.
  7. I get Rafferty making the team if we lose a D in expansion or can’t sign Tanev or Fantenburg or Stetcher, move Benn - leaving us Edler (unless we don’t protect him and lose him to expansion) - there will likely be space on D for Tryamkin and Rafferty - maybe even Rathbone. But Lind has quite a lineup to crack if we re-sign Toffoli. Then we’d have Toffoli, Boeser, Virtanen, Leivo, and perhaps MacEwen for RW; Miller, Horvat, Gaudette, Sutter and Beagle for C; Pettersson, Pearson, Roussel, Motte, Eriksson, and Ferland for LW. If that is true we may lose an F to expansion, but not necessarily, The F spots seem filled except in case of injury. Or maybe Benning signs Toffoli and trades a RW - Boeser could bring a good return in trade for a decent D, though I would hate to lose him - especially since we have a potential stud coming the next year in a Podkolzin.
  8. Why did you remind me? I had been trying to forget what’s his name.
  9. Realistically, yeah, a person has to say that the deal with Louie did not work out as expected. Dealing on older players with already marginal skating whose value has been significantly enhanced by who he was playing with, is a risky proposition. But at the time of his signing, latching onto a 30 goal 60 point guy to, supposedly, play with the Sedins seemed like a great idea to most of the fans in Vancouver. In retrospect, adding a slow, soft player to the Sedins line was probably not a great idea. The Sedins were two of the slowest, smartest players in the league and the players they tended to make look good were in the Burrows, King, Klatt, Carter, Samuelson, type - wingers that were more robust and aggressive. Definitely not Louie at six mil per. I guess coming off a thirty goal season looked like a good idea at the time. But the Sedins needed a guy that could get them the puck so that they could perform their miracles, be defensively responsible so that they could really push the play, and create a bit of havoc - definitely not Louie. But now to MacEwen: he is a testament to amateur scouting and minor pro development. Here was a late bloomer, not playing in the best environment, but he was big, smart and determined. His determination, intelligence and good development has made us a hockey player to whom Green should give more and more ice as MacEwen proves that he is a three zone player. Lots of guys come up and get a couple of Adrenalin goals, show their defensive flaws and incompleteness, and sadly, their careers falter and they fade out of the league. They are often characterized by some early productivity accompanied by some significant gaffs that get reflected in the stat to which too many people dismiss as of no importance - their +/- - the stat that ultimately reflects their even strength value to the team - when you consider the context in which they earned it. Guys matched against other teams best players even strength can suffer in +/- in that situation. Some are so good at it that they earn high plus against the best the league can offer - in 2010/11 Ryan Kesler was that guy, Datsyuk had a large part of his career as that guy. I’m not saying MacEwen is that guy, I’m just noting that during a period when this team has not been it’s best, he has been. Over this rough stretch, while we have been losing, he has not only produced offensively, he has been a plus player. He has not suffered brain cramps in his own end, he has been a strong forechecker, he has responded physically when appropriate, and has really shown good puck possession and recovery. It’s just a brief tryout, but it is reflective of his progress in Utica and speaks well of scouting and player development. Of high picks one has expectations, of lower picks, hopes - but of the guys that are undrafted and mostly unrecognized by other organizations one is really showing one’s ability to find gold in unexpected places. Still, it is one thing for scouts to identify unappreciated talent, but it is up to the athlete to grow his fitness and his game. Keep it up Zack!
  10. Really like Big Mac, he really rounds out a nice set of right wingers: Toffoli, Boeser, Virtanen, MacEwen... with Podkolzin to come... and Lind... maybe there is something there to get us a top four D.
  11. Barrie signs here? Way too expensive and he would be useless for us. We have PP QB in Hughes, We don’t need to be a second rate version of Toronto loaded up with Prima donnas that can’t defend. We need a defender with some truculence and we already have him in our organization. It is about time other teams found running our goalies an act fraught with peril. It is about time that the front of our net was defended with enough vigour to make it the last place on earth opposing forwards had an interest in challenging. It is about time we crushed opposing forwards as they cross our blue line - these are all things that player has already done in Vancouver. On top of which he can play the game. Then we have Rathbone and Rafferty - depending on whether you need a right or left shooting puck mover. All of those players come with a reasonable cap hit.
  12. Yeah, Anaheim was used to running over our players with no consequence, the shock of Tryamkin throwing them around like rag dolls was soooo hard on Anaheim that I almost felt pity for them... till I remembered what a*holesthey had been to the Canucks, then I just sat back and added a sour slice of lemon to my bottle of Stella.
  13. Interesting, last year Quinn Hughes had 33 points in 32 games. Rathbone 28 points in 26. Both Sophomores. Dare we hope that Rathbone is another special player.
  14. Teves was playing very well till he got hurt and struggled since he came back from injury.
  15. With Toffoli, Virtanen, and Podkolzin coming, is Boeser trade material for some other team to protect?
  16. I don’t think a “kill list” is Tryamkin’s game - but in the moment, watch out.
  17. He reminds of a young Messier (is that sacrilegious on CDC?) - just unbelievable raw power and don’t take no crap. Oh yeah, and he could play hockey.
  18. I have watched pretty much all of Utica’s games, Juolevi is slow compared to any other Canuck owned D in Utica. He has virtues but skating is not one of them. If you want to see an exceptional skater, watch Rafferty - he has NHL wheels - Juolevi does not. We will see next year whether Juolevi can make and stick with the Canucks. I’d love to see him do it, but without better skating... emphatically no.
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