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SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

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Everything posted by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

  1. Markstrom tied for 10th place in the Vezina voting. Sure, it was just one 3rd place vote, but nice to see Marky listed with that company.
  2. No doubt. I’d actually be quite surprised if one of the guys drafted between 10-20 doesn’t end up being considered a top-5 talent in a re-draft. Even some of the guys who might very well go a bit later, like say a Bobby Brink. Brink, for my money, has one of the best “hockey brains” in the draft. His “hockey body?” Meh... not so much. But if Brink can clean up that awkward stride, and maybe have a bit of a late growth spurt (not unheard of, especially for a July birthday who looks like he’s about 10 years old right now), his mind for the game, and natural talent/skillset, puts his ceiling right there with some of the current “elite” forwards in the top of the draft. Would not surprise me in the least to see Brink develop into a legit top line NHL talent and one of the best players coming out of the 2019 draft. Of course, there’s also potential for him to fizzle out developmentally and miss the show entirely. Definitely the type of player I’d swing at if we had the luxury of a another Day1 pick in the second half of the first round. And if he really slips and somehow is there when we pick at #40 (hopefully his size, and especially him “shrinking” from a listed 5’10” to a measured 5’8.25” at the Combine, will scare some teams off), I’ll be chanting “Brink Brink Brink” in my head, right up until our pick is announced. That all said, to quote Burke, “that’s a small body, gentlemen, a small body.” But those stats, man “But what if I told you that Brink had a hand in 50 percent of all of his team’s goals? Now we’re getting somewhere. What if I told you that his primary points per game was beneath only Jack Hughes and Alex Turcotte? Or that when you adjust for age, Brink is “better” than slam-dunk picks like Matthew Boldy, Cole Caufield, and Trevor Zegras? That he scored more points-per-game than Casey Mittelstadt, yet only 38 percent of his points were on the PP compared to 60 percent for Mittelstadt? Or that his PPG for a draft-eligible player in the USHL is better than the Winnipeg Jets’ 30-goal scorer, Kyle Connorand the Calgary Flames’ Johnny Gaudreau?” https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.defendingbigd.com/platform/amp/2019/6/17/18638028/2019-nhl-entry-draft-prospect-profile-bobby-brink-right-wing-zucker-dallas-stars-ushl-sioux-city
  3. Well, hopefully. But given Zhukenov’s development journey so far, I’d expect he’s more likely bound for Gornyak Uchaly (VHL—the Russian second tier “farm” league, affiliated with Avtomobilist). Would be great though if he can turn the corner and actually get some meaningful games next season with the parent club in the KHL.
  4. Lemme just fix that tweet for ya, Rick: “Doesn’t sound like the #Canucks and Alexander Edler will get a deal done [before June 23rd]. Looks like 1 of the best defenseman in franchise history could be [testing] the market.”
  5. Not at all surprised by the numbers. Expected to see something between $11-12 million AAV for Karlsson. He had already turned down $80 million over 8 years ($10M AAV) from Ottawa. His agent made it clear that the starting point for any negotiation needed to be the Drew Doughty extension ($11 million AAV). Karlsson and his agent believe he is the best/most valuable Dman in the world (and there’s a legitimate case for this being true), so they weren’t going to accept any deal that didn’t make him the league’s highest paid player at his position.
  6. Draft him! Our pregame warmup soccer has been pretty weak since the Sedins left.
  7. Interesting proposal. Based on some of the pick value work done by stats people (looking at factors like draft pick likelihood of success and expected GAR), this would be a significant win for Vancouver, yielding a return on investment of between 25-50% (ie: picks 28+36+37 are probably worth 125-150% of the value of picks 10+133). However, I suspect popular opinion would deem this trade a loser, given how top-10 picks are generally valued. We just don’t see trades like this happen in the NHL. And Benning isn’t really the type of GM to make such a bold move, going against years of tradition and conventional wisdom (even if he were armed with powerful evidence that he’d win the trade on value). It’d also be a hard sell to Canucks fans, during any draft, never mind one held in our home barn, that we should trade a #10 pick and drop back 18 spots before making our first selection. It’s one of those proposals that is an intriguing hypothetical, but not much more than that. Similar idea to a “crazy” one I’ve suggested in the past. A forward-thinking GM (especially one in the middle of a long term rebuild plan) would actually be wise to trade their entire slate of Day 2 draft picks (ie: all their picks from rounds 2-7), for picks in the following draft year. Just because “next year” picks are hugely underrated by most GMs, and they will hand them out like candy (often paying nearly 2:1), for picks they can use today. EDIT: Further to the above, a very interesting project a GM could undertake (purely hypothetical, of course) would be to pursue such a plan (trading current year rounds 2-7 picks for future picks) over several drafts. Start the process at the beginning of a contending phase, with a young core in place, and some prospects already in the system. Sell picks from rounds 2-7 over three seasons, accumulating a horde of 50+ Day 2 picks by year 4. At the point, a rebuild is likely appearing on the near horizon (but still a few years off yet), given that the young core would just be entering peak years and the start of their decline phase. From that point on, draft ~25 players each year in rounds 2-7, and trade ~25 picks (of the 50+) for picks in future drafts (which would ensure the same 50+ picks were available in successive drafts). Continue the process annually, and in only a few years, the team could build up a such a prospect pipeline as never seen before in this league, and basically have an entire team worth of young players in place in the system, ready to come online just in time for the next rebuild. Of course, at some point I’d expect the other GMs would clue in and stop trading their future picks (or at least not give them away at the same value), but I’m genuinely curious how long a team could get away with this before the rest of the league actually realized they were being taken advantage of? Of course, the 90 player reserve limit would become an issue (if a team were adding draft rights to 25 new prospects each year), but they could mitigate some of this by selling off surplus picks and prospects, and selling veterans once the decline phase hit, thereby only holding onto the absolute cream of the crop of the young players/prospects, once reserve limits really started to become a factor. I know this is all “crazy talk” but it’s fun to think about anyway.
  8. Anton Forsberg is a former goaltending pupil of Ian Clark in the Columbus system. I think, as a general rule, the Canucks are well served listening to Clarky when it comes to scouting goalies, both pro and amateur (well, other than that time we drafted his kid ). If Clark thinks Forsberg is worth the time, I’m all for it.
  9. Here’s what Friedman actually said: “I’ve heard some really interesting things about this whole situation. There is definitely a feeling this has gone off the rails. But one thing that people have always warned me about is the real deadline is coming up. If it’s not July 1 itself or June 23, when you can first start talking to players, this week is a big week for a lot of teams. They want to know where their guys are going, if they’re staying or going. I have heard San Jose if they lose some of their D. I still think there’s a chance that maybe Vancouver and him sort it out, but this is definitely more difficult than anybody expected it would be. And there are people convinced he will not be going back to Vancouver, but again, look, if he really wants to go back and they really want him there’s a path there. I hesitate to say 100 per cent yes or no, but there’s no question this has been a lot harder than everyone thought it would be. “The issue is 1) Term, and 2) Expansion draft availability. They want him eligible for the expansion draft, he doesn’t want to be.” Source: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-podcast-note-10-pending-nhl-ufas/
  10. It might even take a lot more than $2.5M. Cost of living in Vancouver is probably double or more that in Yekaterinburg. https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Russia&city1=Moscow&country2=Canada&city2=Vancouver https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Russia&city1=Yekaterinburg&country2=Russia&city2=Moscow According to the above (cost of living plus rent indexes), you need 301,090 rubles (6,174.23 C$) in Vancouver to buy what 180,000 rubles gets you in Moscow. And you only need 120,000 rubles in Yekaterinburg to buy what 180,785.86 gets you in Moscow. So, according to those figures, Vancouver is roughly 2.5X the cost of Yekaterinburg. Then, you have the salary. I believe KHL contract figures are actually reported for take home income, after tax. So those KHL salaries are what the player actually gets paid. The team covers the taxes. So, at 2.5X the cost of living, you’d need to have $2.28 million in Vancouver, to match that $912K gets you in Yekaterinburg. And that’s take home pay. I guess it depends how good his accountant is, but playing by the rules, to net $2.28 million in Vancouver, you’re probably looking at a contract of around $4.5 million AAV. https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/ Or $4.65 million according to the above tool. Obviously, it’s a little more complicated. Tryamkin probably isn’t spending all his earnings on “cost of living and rent” expenses (at least I hope not). But this still gives a quick and dirty breakdown of just how far 59 million rubles go in Yekaterinburg, compared to what a $912K gets you in Vancouver.
  11. Unknown metallic mass in a crater on the dark side of the moon? I think my kids made me watch this movie.
  12. Yeah, according to the article that leaked the salaries, Tryamkin’s current KHL contract (annual figures) is for 48 million rubles base salary and 11 million rubles in bonuses. So 59 million rubles total per year. That’s roughly $742K base and $170K bonuses (USD). Or a total of $912K AAV. Chart from the article: https://m.sport-express.ru/hockey/khl/reviews/vse-zarplaty-hokkeistov-khl-skolko-poluchayut-igroki-lidera-ligi-skolko-stoit-gegemoniya-avtomobilista-1476213/
  13. The KHL definitely allows for mutual termination of contracts. I believe this can go down in three ways: 1) the club can buy the player out; 2) the player and club can agree to just end the contract, without a payout; or 3) the player can buy himself out, which, unless otherwise stipulated, requires the player paying 2/3 of his remaining salary. Players can also have clauses written into contracts that allow them to opt out under certain circumstances (like say an NHL offer), or set a more favourable amount (ie: something less than 2/3 remaining salary) for a player elected buyout. I have no source on any of this. This is just what I’ve picked up over the years from various discussions. But contract terminations definitely happen in the KHL. Wojtek Wolski with Metallurg and Matt Frattin with Barys are two recent examples.
  14. Never thought we’d get a spelling lesson on Dahlen and Dahlin from Alf! I think for about a year straight I kept reading “Dhalen” and ”Dhalin” in your posts. (Friendly ribbing and all in good fun, Alf. Just makes me laugh to see you setting someone straight on the spelling of these names.)
  15. I think he’s overpaid if he’s making more than Alex Biega. I’m not a fan of Zaitsev though. I’d consider a deal with Kapanen as a sweetener and us sending a bag of pucks back, but I doubt that’s on offer. From the sounds of things, TO hopes to get a decent Dman coming back in that kind of deal, and I’m even sure getting Kappy is enough to overcome the negative value on Zaitsev, never mind us giving up an actual asset for the privilege. I am intrigued by the Canes rumours. If they actually value Hamilton so little as to seriously consider dealing him for Zaitsev+, I kinda wonder how cheap Dougie could be had right now?
  16. I know CDCers have a thing about HFBoards, but the main prospects forum over there has lots of good info on the 2020 Draft. Here’s the main thread: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-nhl-draft-prospects.1940945/ (And there are threads on just just about every notable 2020 prospect.) In addition to the players listed in the article you posted (Lafrenière, Gunler, Lundell, Byfield, Drysdale, Guhle, Holtz, Perfetti, Raymond, Barron), there are guys like Braden Schneider, Marco Rossi, Dylan Holloway, Dylan Peterson, Jan Mysak, Jean-Luc Foudy, and probably 20 other guys that look really interesting. Deep draft. I mean, take a guy like Marco Rossi, who doesn’t even get mentioned in that article, yet the kid has been outpacing Nico Hischier at every level over the past 3 years. Rossi looks top-5 in my book, but some have him in the back half of the draft, partly because of the size concerns, but mostly because there’s just so much talent right now vying for those top spots. Rossi’s D-1 season (OHL): 65 games (reg+po) 36 goals, 47 assists, 83 points, 1.28 ppg, +54, 42 PIM, 12 PP goals, 7 GW goals, 565/1065 face-offs (53%), 197 shots on goal. Sure he’s undersized and a late birthday, but even so, that’s absolutely filthy for an import player in his rookie season of North American hockey. And this kid’s game isn’t just about points. Strong work ethic, solid play at both ends, good backcheck, forces turnovers, goes to dirty areas (despite his size), doesn’t shy away from contact, strong face-offs, and while undersized, he has already proven he can play against men (and did so as a 16 year old in Swiss men’s pro). Came over the NA and has adjusted really well, becoming a top player for the Ottawa 67’s (who nearly won it all, but for an injury to a certain starting goalie). Rossi finished with the best points/game in the OHL, among D-1 players and rookies, for both the 2018-19 regular season and 2019 playoffs. And side by side with Hischier (open spoiler if interested): Rossi highlights:
  17. Weaponize that cap space, JB! Seriously though, with the right futures-heavy sweetener, I’d happily take on Marleau’s cap hit for 2019-20. Play him with Petey and Boes, watch him have an age-defying bounceback season and score 25+ goals. Then flip him, salary retained, at the deadline for even more futures. Easy GM’ing, from my armchair, anyway.
  18. I’d have seriously considered it before we got Petey. But I can’t support breaking up the Boeser-Pettersson bromance. I want a decade of lap taps.
  19. Good on the guy for providing the service. Unfortunately, I doubt it’s much help to the people most at risk. Most addicts aren’t gonna wait for postage and testing time before getting their next fix. They’re not gonna leave their stash sitting untouched until they get the all clear that it’s safe. And by the time the testing is done, the dealers have likely cut a new batch, so the info isn’t much help for the next time they score.
  20. Good for Ābols (not trying to be fancy, just my phone autocorrect does the Latvian spelling with a macron on the A ). He had a real development uptick over the last 1.5 seasons, starting with the loan to Karlskoga (where he pretty much singlehandedly turned their season around and saved them from relegation) and then putting up some solid numbers this past season in Örebro. He’s not a high upside guy, by any means, but he might manage to become a depth/bottom-six NHL player one day, should he continue to develop and improve. Ābols has the size, grit, faceoff ability, and defensive/two-way skills to be a decent checking/matchup centre, and has even shown some offensive flair recently in the SHL and Allsvenskan. I don’t necessarily place high odds on him panning out as an NHL player, but I also wouldn’t be all that surprised if he actually made it.
  21. That guy’s killing it in second tier German pro, scoring nearly a point per game last season for the “Ice Pirates” of Crimmitschau.
  22. The whole “loophole” thing is kinda funny to me. First off, there’s really no loophole. Draft rights expire. So the CBA has a process for what happens when teams fail to sign their draft picks. Every player has the right to not sign an ELC, regardless of what league they play in. Of course, college players and some Europeans have more of a decision to make, as to whether or not it is in their best interest to sign with their draft team. Junior players, for the most part, don’t have any better options. But nearly every drafted player who is offered a contract will sign and turn pro. You can probably count on one hand (maybe two) the number of times a player has legitimately “held out” and refused to sign with their draft team. Many other instances, the player was dicked around by their draft team, and the relationship soured. That’s on the team as much as anything. But as far as players who truly refuse to even consider signing with the team that drafted them, the examples are few and far between.
  23. I know you’re kidding, but in a way, it’s kind of true. I think had Pettersson played in the AHL this past season, in a first line role and with talented wingers (like with a Boeser quality guy on one side), he’d probably have torn that league up and might very well have flirted with something close to 2 points per game. Or if you took Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen, and plunked their line into the AHL for 2018-19, they’d have eaten that league alive and likely scored over 2 points per game each. That doesn’t mean a prospect or developing player needs to score 2 points per game in the AHL to have any hope of ever becoming an NHL star. But I would expect many of the elite NHL players of today would be able to score 2 points per game against AHL level competition. I mean, league equivalencies (like NHLe) are simply the average of what all the players who moved between leagues produced, from one season to the next. Individual results will vary, especially when players take on different roles and levels of opportunity. But the numbers are the numbers, and they’re based on what actually happens when players move between these leagues.
  24. Nigel Dawes was an AHL all-star and top player before going to the KHL. His last AHL season, he scored 41 goals (one goal off the league lead, in 14 fewer games than the leader) and 72 points in 67 games, followed by 14 goals (league leader) and 22 points in 20 play-off games. He was clearly one of the AHL’s top players when he left North America. When he went to the KHL, his first few couple seasons, he scored around 0.65 points per game. This after being a point per game or better scorer in his previous couple seasons in the AHL. His last full season in the NHL, Dawes scored 32 points in 66 games. In his first full season in the KHL, Dawes scored 33 points in 52 games. Dawes didn’t become a KHL all-star until his fourth season over there. It took him a while before he became one of that league’s scoring leaders. His production has actually improved into his 30’s. But when you really look at Dawes’s career, it tells you a few things about the leagues he’s played in. Based off Dawes’s numbers, the KHL is a much tougher league to score in than the AHL. Dawes was scoring around twice as much in the AHL compared to the KHL. And his NHL scoring (when he actually played a full season in a regular role) was just slightly less than what he produced in his first couple KHL seasons. This all basically fits with NHLe translation factors (league equivalencies). The KHL has an NHLe of around 0.74. The AHL has an NHLe of around 0.47. This means that KHL points are worth 0.74 points in the NHL and AHL points are worth 0.47 NHL points. When you look at Dawes’s performance in the years he was moving between the NHL, AHL, and KHL, his results fit pretty well with expectations, and support that argument that the KHL is a much tougher league to score in than the AHL, and is actually closer to the NHL than the AHL, in terms of the scoring equivalencies. You see the same thing with the other names that pop up in this thread, when people try to diminish the KHL (and Tryamkin’s achievements in that league). Philip Larsen and Sergei Shirokov are the latest examples I’ve seen bandied about. Let’s take a closer look at those players. Philip Larsen was quite successful in the AHL. He age 21 season, as a rookie, he put-up a respectable 22 points in 54 AHL games. He second season, 10 points in 12 GP (majority of that year he was playing in the NHL). The season before he left for the KHL, Larsen scored 7 points in a shot stint of 7 AHL games. So while we don’t have huge samples to look at, based on the numbers we have, Larsen was pushing toward being around a point per game player in the AHL, before leaving for the KHL. In the KHL, Larsen scored 25 points in 56 games his first season, and has been a career 0.58 points per game player in the KHL. In Larsen’s case, the NHL numbers are not all that informative, as far as comparing league scoring rates. At least when you consider the context. Larsen has played as a top offensive Dman and 1PPQB in the AHL and KHL. In the NHL, he’s been a 15 minutes per game depth player. So you can’t expect him to produce a league equivalent scoring rate in the NHL, when his usage at that level is drastically reduced. Also, Larsen falls into a category of player you often see succeed overseas. He needs to play in a prime role to be successful, but he’s not nearly good enough to earn a top lineup spot in the NHL. That’s why he was able to be a dominant points producer in the AHL, and a top offensive Dman in the KHL, but basically just a fringe guy at the NHL level. He’s in a class of players who are too talented to spend their careers in the American League, just right for the KHL, and not talented enough to be top players in the NHL. As for Shirokov, he played two seasons in the AHL. Both years he was named an all-star. He was arguably the best player down on the farm for those two seasons (where he finished 2nd and 1st place in team scoring). But he happened to playing be in a Canucks system during the height of the Sedin era. Tough squad to crack as a top line offensive player. In Russia, he was a young star player, one of the premiere talents for CSKA at the time, and he had a clear path mapped out as an elite player in the KHL. So Shirokov being a top KHL player isn’t at all surprising. He was a top player in Russia before the left, came to North America, and became a top player in the AHL. He left North America, went back to Russia, and continued being a top player in the KHL. Had he stayed in North America, Shirokov would have likely remained a perennial AHL all-star and top scorer, and possibly even earned an NHL role. But his choice was to either continue riding the bus in Manitoba and hoping to catch a break (while the Canucks were winning Presidents’ Trophies and the Sedins winning scoring titles), or go back to his country, earn more money, and be a star player in the top Russian league, while playing for his hometown team with CSKA. I know which one I’d have picked, if I were in his shoes at that time. Anyway, the point is, none of the successes Dawes, Larsen, or Shirokov have enjoyed in the KHL should be seen to diminish that league, or their quality as players. These were all elite talents at the AHL level (and this was mostly as young players in their early to mid 20’s), so it only makes sense they’d be successful in the KHL, especially during the prime years of their careers. Had they stayed in North America, they’d probably be tearing up the AHL, at the very least. They might even be pushing for NHL spots. And had some of these guys come up a decade or two later than they did, with the current landscape, when it comes to undersized players, who knows what their paths would have been? A young Nigel Dawes coming up today might have been the next Cole Caufield.
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