-
Posts
52,033 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
68
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Everything posted by aGENT
-
Yet we see these contracts handed out EVERY year. Zib is one whole year younger. Big whoop. How old was Pietrangelo? Sure he's a D, yadda yadda. Point is, GM's looking to win now don't care what a guy's cap hit is 7 or 8 years down the line when their team is rebuilding and they're likely long fired. We literally just had first hand evidence of that from what Gillis left us.
-
I never mentioned anything about players aged 18 to 38 The only thing I've brought up is the very well documented and basically indisputable decline of the vast majority of forwards who peak in their late 20's, dip a bit between +/-30-32 and fall off a cliff around 33/34. You've illustrated zero correlation to scoring whatever points blah blah... has anything to do with the accepted facts of age related decline in the early to mid 30's. It's an entirely imagination and bias based theory.
-
[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild | Apr. 21, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
But moving Miller isn't a rebuild. Which you do keep saying (inferred it here again in fact). Despite saying a few posts ago in this chain that that's not what you're saying. You're talking out both sides of your mouth again and/or very confused. -
Miller's agent has already made it clear he's going to be looking for something like the Zib/Hertl money, which checks out on player/contract comparison. We're looking at +/-$65m divided by however many years term you want to get your AAV. Maybe if you're a contender and/or low tax team, you can get that down to $55/$60m. Do you think a team like Boston gives a &^@# about his cap hit in 7 or 8 years? It's almost like forwards regress in their early-mid 30's like &^@#ing clock work other than the odd outlier... Kind of why any team not in "win now" mode shouldn't be lining up to sign him for the deal he's going to get... Nope, just responding at level of the conversation
-
[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild | Apr. 21, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
But I thought you just said you don't keep saying moving Miller equals a rebuild... (It doesn't). Are we talking out both sides of our mouth again Jimmy? -
Against what?! Some cherry picked data with no meaningful correlation beyond what you've imagined? Age related decline has pretty well studied and accepted. Miller is not a unique and beautiful butterfly. Yelling at that cloud isn't changing that. Planning that he's an outlier isn't planning, it's hoping.
-
No, it's not called comparables. It's called cherry picking to suit your narrative. You've attempted twist a ridiculously specific set of variables to some sort of correlation/causation that's simply not there. The fact is, the vast majority of forwards decline a bit between +/-30-32 and a lot at +/-34. Miller is no more or less likely to escape those odds than any one else, regardless of what specific narrative imbued goal posts you'd like to imagine.
-
Yes you cherry picked a very specific set of criteria to suit your narrative. The facts are, the vast majority of forwards regress a bit between +/-30-32 and hard at +/-34. We have countless examples of this both around the league, and on our very own team over the years. Yet here you are, continuing to declare Miller will almost certainly be an outlier
-
Henrik and Daniel were arguably the two best players in this team's history, with FAR better vision than Miller has. Their production fell off in their early-mid 30's. Naslund was one of the best scorers in the team's history. His production fell off in his early-mid 30's. The fact is, most forwards drop off a bit around 30-32 and a LOT around 34. It's far more likely Miller follows that trend, than bucks it. Regardless of your boundless optimism.
-
I can understand being a fan of the current Miller. Guy's a heck of a player and has had a great season for us. I was excited when we traded for him and he's far exceeded even my positive expectations. What I don't see your way, is how close this team is (isn't). We're a bubble playoff team that's overly reliant on Demko, lack size/speed/grit/PK'ers/3C/organizational depth, with massive structural and succession issues on D, no real team identity and minimal cap space to fix any of that. And retaining Miller (which IMO many of you are FAR too optimistic on what it will cost to realistically retain him) will make it that much harder to fix those things. And if we even manage to miraculously fix those things over the next few years, while retaining him, he's likely regressing and causing massive cap inefficiency right when all that finally comes together and Petey and Hughes are at their peaks. Blech. This team isn't "small tweaks" and "tinkering around the margins" from contending. Better than their early record under Green, or not. And I've explained there's far more to this than simply managing to fit Miller under the cap and liking him as a player right now. And that spending assets we desperately need, to clear the cap of guys like Poolman and Dickinson (losing depth at the NHL and prospect levels, yay!), is the exact opposite of what we should be doing.
-
This again. Trading Miller is not remotely about "replacing him". Never was, never will be. His production will be replaced by committee/other moves/better defense/more offense from the defense/less goals against for a better goal differential/a more cohesive, better built team with an actual identity etc.
-
Let's go through this one thing at a time... Tampa is a contending team, is Vancouver? Contending teams can both more readily convince players to take discounts and at the same time can more afford to ignore longer term cap issues in order to "win now". Tampa has favorable tax rates, does Vancouver? Stamkos is a first overall pick with a long history of high level play. Forwards tend to fall off a bit between 32-34 and then off a cliff. Stamkos is signed until 34 where he'll probably experience that moderate dip in play for a couple years and then expire. We're talking about signing Miller for 6-8 years, until the ages of 36-38.. That's likely 2 years of something resembling his current level of play, a moderate dip for 2 years and 2-4 years of exceedingly inefficient cap. Unfavorably, RIGHT when Hughes and Pettersson are at their peaks. The situations are not nearly the parallels you inferred.