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Everything posted by aGENT
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[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I wouldn't be. That's roughly the high end of his market value. Someone may offer it to get him. And even if he signs for a bit less, we're talking what $8.2m x8 instead? That's still $65.6m (AKA right around the +/- $65m mark I keep noting it will likely take to sign him). You're acting like there's going to be some night and day difference. There isn't. It's going to take $65m, give or take a couple mil to sign him. Divide by whatever term you want, that's your AAV. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
You're conflating terms. Miller in the article's $9.5m example was their (highly optimistic) hopes for a 5 year term (the longest term that makes any sense for the Canucks). (IMO, even $11 or $12m AAV is optimistic at 5 years) Miller will almost certainly be signing a 7 or 8 year deal at +/- $8.5 or $8.125m. As will Kadri at probably closer to $7-$7.5m (x7-8 years). At a 5 year term, his AAV would go up as well. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Yeah, I mean we can certainly get some value but the multiple TOP prospects "dream" returns just aren't realistic. Teams will certainly sacrifice some youth for a chance at a cup, we see it all the time. But they're not going to move their ENTIRE future, no. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I think the Rangers would still have interest, they'd just need to either move out other cap, not extend Strome, or only take him on as a rental. That's up to them. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Nashville, Boston, maybe Pittsburgh easily and likely another 5+ teams that would have to (eventually) move out salary (which teams consistently do). No, they'll pay Miller closer to $8.5x7 (or if they trade for him, $8.125x8). Probably because he's a better player? And I doubt Kadri signs for $7x5 either (since you want to conflate terms here). -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Even their 5 year, high AAV, bonus rich deal is wishful thinking IMO. I don't see Miller taking an almost $18m discount, just because the author suggested it. IMO a 5 year deal is easily over a $10m AAV. His agent is going to be looking at +/-$65m divided by how many years the contract is. Maybe, maybe you get a small discount on that $65m on a shorter deal if you can sell him on getting more cash upfront etc, but $17.5m...? Not a chance. And even a $5m discount to $60m divided by 5 years, is still a $12m AAV. A $10m discount to $55m? $11m AAV. And even those are optimistic numbers! Do people honestly think he's going to just take a bigger discount than that, "because"?! There just isn't a deal that's likely to work for both player and team. It doesn't exist unless Miller is entirely more enamored with the city than anyone could imagine, and is willing to take a LARGE ($15-$20m) discount to stay here... There's simply no option but moving him. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Price in the offseason will be less than the TDL. Rangers or otherwise, that's the approximate value we should be expecting. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Yeah, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, both sides of this are the worst There's people who think we should only trade Miller if we get Laffy, Schneider, Kakko and their next 5 1sts. Then there's some people who think we're only going to get Kravstov, and a 1st. Realistically, it doesn't sound like we're getting Schneider (happy to be wrong though!). But there's no reason we couldn't get something like Chytil, Lundqvist and a 1st. Bonus points for an additional Kravstov/Othman/Barron/Robertson etc. -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
There's hardly such a thing as "consensus" in the draft. Half the time there's even debate over 1st overall for crying out loud. Generally the safest, most obvious pick of the entire draft! Most of this board frankly has an oversimplified view of "BPA" and what that even means. Different teams, have different players, ranked differently. Shocker, I know. So who the hell gets to declare "BPA" prior to the draft? You? Hockey News? Button? Mackenzie? Central Scouting? Hockey Prospect? Teams? THEY ALL HAVE DIFFERENT LISTS. THEY'RE ALL GUESSES. And yet you guys want to captain-hindisght-whinge on about a guy ranked right around where we picked him. (BUT MY LIST OF CHOICE HAD HIM 9TH! ) The best way to look at the draft is in tiers. Not "BPA" (as there's really no such thing/it's a fantasy without the gift of hindisght) Juolevi was in the same, secondary tier as MT, Keller, Nylander, Sergachev and Jost IIRC. The order they went in, doesn't really matter. Not all of them have worked out/they've all worked out to varrying degrees. $&!# happens. Move on. The draft is a crap shoot. -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
If you want to play the captain hindisght game, what we should have done is trade down, adding additional assets and selected McAvoy. Again, we were never drafting Tkachuck. Sorry if that keeps you up at night still -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
I had us taking either OJ or Sergachev. I think there was a couple other people thinking the same... ForsbergThe Great IIRC and maybe @stawns? Despite you guys wanting to re-write history... That's were he was ranked AT THE DRAFT, and numerous people had us taking him. Not only that, numerous pundits then, and since, including Brian Burke, have all stated they had him ranked there. But y'all carry on yelling at your clouds... -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
First of all, Damien Cox/Sportsnet are hardly considered draft rank authorities. Second of all, "in any event", at the draft, they were ranked at par and in the same tier. As was Sergachev. Would it have been a mistake to take him instead? Or McAvoy who was actually ranked lower? Or Chychrun who was originally ranked up there and then fell? Sorry, but any of those guys would have been fine. D in the first round aren't any more hit or miss than any other player. Hate to break it to you but they're all hit or miss. F's, D's...doesn't matter. You do the best scouting you can and you cross your fingers, just like everyone else. And FWIW, we were never drafting Tkachuck. -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Juolevi wasn't off the board. He was the highest ranked D of the draft and right on par with Tkachuk in the rankings. $&!# happens. Players don't develop, have injury issues etc. Good for those 2nd round picks. Again, those guys were largely luck/late bloomers with as big of a bust risk as their upside. That's WHY they fell to the 2nd round instead of going on the first. If they didn't have question marks, they'd have gone in the first. Newsflash, the draft can be a major crap shoot, regardless of your scouting. There's zero reason to be scared to draft D in the first. It's a silly sentiment. As is the idea that any D you take in the second is a solid chance to be a Norris candidate. That's just goofy logic. Most of them weren't top 10 picks. Nor was Chychrun, who half this board wants us to trade for. -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Honestly haven't had much time to look at the draft this year. I know when Jiricek was ranked in the 12 -15 range (where we're likely picking), I was excited about him. Unfortunately, he's probably played himself in to top 5-10 range -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Sure, some quality D come out of the second round. But that's largely luck/guys who were late bloomers. That's not something you bank on. Plenty of good D (likely more) come out of the 1st round as well. Like Hedman or Ekblad or Hughes or, Makar, or McAvoy or Miller etc, etc, etc. Not drafting D in the first round is silly. It's probably also why we only have one blue chip, top D under 25 . -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Completely agree. OEL isn't remotely the problem here. Especially if we can both partner him with a more offensively inclined player (Lundkvist for example), and get some better defensive D around all of these guys (Marino and Lyubushkin?). Those sorts of moves would free him up a bit from being basically our only shut down/match up guy, and give him a more offensively inclined partner to play with. He'll probably never see his peak numbers again playing behind Hughes, but there's zero reason to think he couldn't have better numbers surrounded by a far better constructed D Hughes, Marino OEL, Lundkvist Dermmott, Lyubushkin Burroughs, Schenn Is a whole other world apart from our current D. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
There was little urgency to make any major moves at the TDL, unless there was a major overpay, beyond Motte. Wait until after the summer before hitting the panick button to see this management's "direction". I don't think you're going to be disappointed. -
[PGT] St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 30, 2022
aGENT replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Yeah, why take a D in the mid first and possibly end up with a bust like McAvoy or a K'andre Miller....? -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Yeah, I think he's likely a W'er who can fill in at C. Still, nothing wrong with a young, mid-6, guy with size, solid 2 way play and skating. Yeah, I don't think he's going to suddenly set the world on fire and become a top line F, but his speed and ability are there regardless. And after a down year, he'd be a good buy low candidate who liekly doesn't require a huge contract either. I think you make some (not all) of it up by committee. Natural progression of guys like Petey, Hogs, Podz etc, adding Chytil and Kapanen to the mid 6, as well as actually upgrading our D (never mind how much gaster we'd get) would all chip away at those "losses". I think Myers would have legit value with $6x2 years remaining. He's a top 4 RHD D with size, decent skating and complimentary offensive ability. Are you going to be able to sign one of those for less than $6x2? That term would be especially intriguing I'd imagine, to a good number of teams. Say Dallas if they lose Klingberg...? Ideal summer IMO: -Miller, for Lundqvist, Chytil, ++ (or similar package) -Boeser/Garland and Poolman for Marino and Kapanen. -Sign Paul/Tierney/Sturm for 3C *Bonus points if we can move Myers for assets and replace him witch cheaper guy like Lyubushkin. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Yeah, OFD. Was actually playing NHL games before Schneider FWIW but with Fox there, not a lot of right side, offensive minutes left over... Schneider definately fits our "needs" more but we also need a RHd puck moving D beyond the more defensive/2 way (but still high ceiling) guy we'd all like, to play opposite Hughes. Maybe that comes from moving one of Boeser/Garland for Marino (something like a young Tanev)...? Chytil, at worst, is a speedy, good sized, 2 way, mid 6 W/C. And he still has offensive upside on top of that. Think he might actually fit well with Horvat (as I do with Kapenen, who's another but low candidate FWIW). -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Lundkvist is arguably a better D prospect than Schneider, I'd be fine with him as part of the package (even if not the perfect fit as a Hughes partner...he can always play with OEL instead). Though Schneider is no slouch either and is a better fit. I'm just not sure we'd get him to shake loose. As you noted later, Kravstov has likely at best, 2nd rounder or 3rd/4th piece value. I'm fine if he's in the deal as sweetener but IMO, we'd need another piece besides the 1st. A guy like Othmann, Robertson, or even the maligned Chytil would all be preferable IMO. Krav's ceiling is almost as intriguing as the amount of question marks around him though -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Frankly both extremes are annoying We aren't moving Miller for Kravstov and a late first. Nor are we getting Laffy, Schneider, Othmann, and their next two firsts. Nor were we likely asking for that much, even at the TDL. That doesn't mean his value isn't still high. My guess is we were getting "summer value" offers at the TDL instead of what the team felt they'd need, to move him for two runs, at the TDL, with the team battling for a playoff spot. So why not just wait until the summer to get those same offers and open up the market to more teams? Teams had to overpay to get him at the TDL. None did. That doesn't mean his value isn't high. Come down? Maybe. But we're talking hundreds of K difference in the AAV here, not millions. Barring a low tax contender nabbing him, he's not likely signing for less than Hertl. He might not get quite as much as Zib being a year older, and without the same lengthy track record, but it's not going to be far off that $65m I mentioned (Zib is $68 FWIW). -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I honestly can't believe the best offer we would get for him is a late first and throwaway prospect. He's simply got too much value. I think management (rightly) was asking for a major overpayment if someone wanted two runs with him, and we were in the middle of a playoff fight. Fair enough that nobody paid that. That doesn't mean there won't be real offers this summer though (and potentially with more suitors). Zero chance he's an own rental. Management has made that a clear mandate from day one and illustrated it by moving Motte. Very little chance this gets past summer IMO. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
aGENT replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Those numbers are based on 8 year terms FWIW. Shorter term = higher AAV. IMO, his agent is going to be asking for +/- $65m. Divide that by whatever term to get your AAV.