bbllpp
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Everything posted by bbllpp
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[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
The Miller tip chance early was a prime example of that. I’ve also noted that he has a deceptive poke check and holds both blue lines really well. -
League gave you 2 days extra Covid recovery, Enjoy!
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[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
I really like his play, one thing I’ve noticed is he will sometimes chase guys behind the net when moving across the front is more advisable but that is just nit picking My expectations is Edler replace OJ though until we are clearly out. Also see them looking at Bowey as well but Chatter has played well enough to stay for now -
As you say the projections change daily with every win and loss on both sides Given how we played TOR there is hope. The will and desire to win is clearly there. I said in the GDT that we have 3 six game series which included last nights game. the warm up: OTT(4) and TOR(2) the make or break: TOR(1), EDM(4) and WPG(1) the gate to the promised land: WPG (1), EDM (1) and CGY (4) Treat them like playoff rounds where they need 4 wins in each. The writing will be on the wall by the end of the second series with MTL being done while we have 5 games left. Bizarre year turning into one of the most interesting finishes I’ve witnessed
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Missed that and yes saw he was grinding your gears I agree that 62 points would be a relatively high confidence cut off at this point As I presented previously, in my opinion with today’s understanding the 50% confidence finish for the Habs is less than that with a window of unlikely to finish more than 63 points and unlikely to finish less than 55 points. Using similar relative margins on the simple model I presented the Canucks fall within 52-62 points which is a significant overlap and I’d shift to 52-64 points given the nature of our schedule
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That’s an overly simplistic view, as I stated above, based on quality of competition and current state of the Habs I would challenge 62 points being their most probable finish. They are in a downward spiral and running out of runway. If you just look how MTL has played against the rest of the field excluding VAN their win % is 47.1% ignoring their poor play lately that puts them at 59 points. If you take it a step further and look how they’ve played their remaining competition it also puts them at 59 points Now if you do the same with the Canucks and the Flames they look like this as of the 12th of May after MTL is done Simple model (bulk % ignoring MTL for VAN and VAN for CGY) Canucks at 52 points with 5 games left (1 vs Edm) CGY at 47 points with four games left all vs Van (mathematically out) Competition specific model Canucks at 54 points Flames at 48 points (still mathematically out) I give the Canucks better than 20% odds under those conditions and 13-15 points out of the next 12 games with 4 against OTT seems very achievable to be on the 50-50 mark for me There is a lot of context this season that just can’t be modelled and the error bands on these models are huge to start with If you just take the simple model to the end of the year it gives you 57 points for VAN. There is a wide overlap in where both Van and Mtl could potentially finish
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[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Nucks took a couple steps closer to fun tonight -
[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
The next 18 games are our playoffs Three 6 game series where we need 4 wins in each, first (includes 4 games vs OTT) and last (includes 4 games vs CGY) should be do able Approach it this way and it doesn’t feel so insurmountable (especially after last years play-ins) and I am pretty sure 61 points will be enough to make the show the way MTL and CGY are falling off -
[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Absolutely not, wide margin for error on the feed to Horvat, low % play on the previous chance -
Haven’t seen that one properly explained, my understanding is performance bonus overages push into the following year, Sending Benn down freed up 1.025 M in CAP which more than covered OJ’s 863 k CAP hit Block Shots and +/- were the only 2 bonuses he was at risk of taking, pretty dick moves if this is why they did not play him. Keep a guy down who was actually doing well
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Taylor Hall?
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[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Drives me nuts when chip companies remove chips from the bag rather than upping the price. They do one or two steps then sell on an “now larger” format back at the original size -
Mtl has 13 games left 3 vs Cgy 2 vs OTT 4 vs TOR 1 vs WPG 3 vs EDM they are 3-7 over the last 10. I struggle seeing them go .500 with that schedule and how they are playing but if they do that’s 60 points. 57-58 seems more realistic. we need 24 of 36 available points for 61 points. This is very doable with 4 games vs OTT and another 4 vs CGY
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[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
How I saw it -
[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
And go 0-10 the rest of the way and slide out of the playoffs -
[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Got to shape if just right to get it in that tiny helmet -
[GDT/PGT] Vancouver Canucks vs Toronto Maple Leaves | April 20, 6 p.m. | SNP
bbllpp replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
And going from an eastern time zone west lol. Over sleeping is not an excuse -
Two now: Win all our remaining games in regulation and we are guaranteed to finish ahead of Mtl and Edm as of Montreal’s loss last night the Edmonton path has always been there, 5 if their last 12 games are against us and we get to tune up against TO and OTT before facing them. Thank you NHL for pushing last weeks EDM games
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Edler To Have Hearing Today [Update: Suspended 2 games]
bbllpp replied to -DLC-'s topic in Canucks Talk
And get called for 2 and 10 for unsportsmanlike conduct as a result of undue treatment of NHL property -
Edler To Have Hearing Today [Update: Suspended 2 games]
bbllpp replied to -DLC-'s topic in Canucks Talk
The players not the fans lol, lost cause there