As mentioned, I don't have enough time to give this a proper go anymore (got home after 9:00 tonight ) so my forthcoming opinions are based entirely off general impressions rather than any specific post or character analysis.
AV was slanking by during last round. TP-AV is usually a very strong, insightful player. Not seeing that so far.
Falcon hasn't disappeared as a candidate, I don't think. Aladeen's vote against falcon seemed like a move to save himself, which gives falcon some cred, but it's not enough to clear. Maybe a closer inspection of Aladeen's interactions with him would be useful.
otherwise is not slanking any more than usual for her, but there's no quality to her posts. I'm still inclined to give her a pass, given her meta, but she can't sneak by forever.
Stamkos and Dow Ti still seem Townie to me. Their reactions seem genuine. MH too, for now - it's such an odd claim to make. I've liked Jazz so far as well. He seems on it.
DM I'm honestly not sure. Ditto for Baka.
I refuse to read BW, 112, and BJ on only my general impressions. Too tricksty, those ones. All seem green, but all are good at hiding their allegiances through grabbing town leadership roles.
Conclusions: AV and Falcon (both also put under 'neutral' by Aladeen in his reads, incidentally) are the two I'd lean towards at the moment. But as I caution, I've given this less thought than I normally do.