Down by the River

Dec. 29th ARKK added 700k shares of BIDU (about a 70% increase from its holdings at the start of the day). Three Chinese telecom giants just delisted from the NYSE. BIDU isn't telecom, but closely related (internet services) and who knows if some are going to want to now funnel money into BIDU in lieu of these other three.

I went in thinking "Ricky Bobby, but a coach". Nope.

Ted Lasso: 8.5/10 TV is just so much better than movies. I watched this based on a recommendation. I thought I would really not like it. I was wrong. It is a real sweet show and Jason Sudeikis proves he has some range (also see the movie Colossal).

I'll play along (EDIT: for anyone new to the thread, I'm brand new to this. There are a few on here whose opinion I value... I don't really value my own opinion and so neither should you): BITF: $2.50 -> $5.00 ENPH: $175.47 -> $210.00 PCRFY: $11.71 -> $15.00 GLNCY: £233-> £250 EBIX: $37.97-> $49.00 Rationale: BITF: Mines various cryptocurrencies. Provides computing power to Bitcoin networks. ENPH: Energy solutions that may benefit from Biden PCRFY(Panasonic): Makes batteries for TSLA GLNCY: Supplies copper to TSLA EBIX: provides on-demand software and e-commerce services and solutions to insurance, financial, healthcare, and e-learning industries. Cathie Wood talked about new e-learning companies and this one might be on its way. Same with potentially telehealth.

NBA is on a condensed schedule and the league loves their load management. Means that it is not always clear when star players will actually be dressed. Makes placing bets a little more risky unless you're really in the know about when starters are going to be rested, etc. There are no real crowds from what I understand, so home advantage is difficult to judge and I'm not sure how bookies factor this into their lines. Feb 7 = Superbowl. An extra Sunday between playoff games means that everyone should have a good understanding of the lineup. Fewer people not at bars might mean more people home, bored on their phones, placing stupid bets for some type of endorphin rush that they are missing from being in bars One month after Superbowl is March Madness, which is probably the biggest betting event of the year. Last year, in some jurisdictions, 3x the bets were placed on March Madness games compared to the Superbowl. In the US, who knows what people might do with their stimulus cheques...

Thanks. Got into BFT at $15.25, VERY at $6.00, and BITF at $2.39.

Is it too late for BFT at $15.31?

My Top Ten List for 2020: 1. Palm Springs The End Honorable Mentions: The Trial of the Chicago Seven, The Social Dilemma, You Should Have Left.

I don't get how Ferraro calls that a dirty play by Podz. That's Eugene Melnyk-level BS. No way he did any of that with ill-intent.

Probably the first game of the tournament I'm looking forward to watching. This is probably the most disinterested I've ever been in a WJHC.

Thanks guys. I'll add more datapoints when I get back to my work computer. I'll go back two years and see what that does. I haven't figured out how to pull, for example, hourly data on each stock. For now, it just shows whether the closing price at time t predicts closing price at t+1. The specific analysis I'm using was developed with small n / experiential sampling in mind. Once I get back to my work computer I'll give an update with some centrality indices that can point to which stocks (hypothetically) have the largest impact on the movement of other stocks. Kind of just fun to practice working on something different.

I decided to play around with some data today... Listened to a podcast where Cathie Wood was talking about companies that innovated and how they were fighting for a share of the pie ("winner takes most"). It made me think about the interdependencies of the market. Past performance is used to predict future performance, but I am not sure how often models account for how the past performance of "Company B" impacts the future performance of "Company A". For my job, I regularly use a type of network analysis that is essentially based on graph theory. We have nodes ("common stocks") and edges ("magnitude of association between stocks"). How does "Company B's" changing performance impact "Company A's" performance? We can conduct what is called a fixed effects analysis, which examines within-company change in stock price and its impact on another companies change in stock price. More importantly, we can lag this relationship. How does the performance of "Company A" on a Monday influence the performance of "Company B" on a Tuesday (for example)? I took a look at the ARKQ ETF, which focuses on innovation in robotics/autonomous vehicles. I created an Excel file that gathered the closing price data over the last 180 days (125 days in which the market was open, so 125 data points) for all 42 common stocks in this portfolio. For ease of visualization, what I'll show here are just analyses of the 10 highest-weighted holdings and the 20 highest-weighted holdings in the ARKQ portfolio. When you see an autoregressive edge (an arrow going back into the node), it indicates that past positive performance predicts future positive performance. Whoop-dee-do. What we are interested in are the edges that show a directional arrow between two nodes (stocks). It will be a bit hard to see all arrows, but this is by design. The arrows that are more heavily weighted represent a stronger effect size. The heavier the arrow, the stronger the impact of a change in price for "Company A" on the change in price for "Company B" during the next day of trading. Arrows that are blue indicate a positive fixed effect. What this means is that the effect of a change in "Company A" results in a change in the same direction for "Company B" during the next day of trading. If "Company A" is up on Monday, "Company B" will be up on Tuesday. Arrows that are red indicate a negative fixed effect. The effect of a change in "Company A" results in a change in the opposite direction for "Company B" during the next day of trading. If "Company A" is up on Monday, "Company B" will be down on Tuesday. I am sure that people will know that I am just messing around/having fun with data, but to be as clear as possible, obviously do not take any of what I am doing as advice/recommendation/endorsement. In theory, FLIR was down today. If the model is accurate, DE will be up tomorrow. Similarly, TWOU was down today, so KMTUY and CAT should be up tomorrow (see the model with the 20 nodes). The nodes are not randomly placed in the graph. An algorithm is used to push towards the center those nodes that are more central; i.e., more information flows through them. DE, KTOS, and TSM are especially informative of how other stocks will perform (typically, if they are up, the next day, a lot of other stocks will be up). Anyway, that was just for my own entertainment and I wanted to spew my thoughts out, so apologies for spamming the thread with my "Dear Diary" moment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-28/cathie-wood-buys-back-option-that-had-threatened-control-of-ark The fight for control of Ark Investment Management is over after Chief Executive Officer Cathie Wood purchased the option that threatened her control. Wood entered into an agreement with Resolute Investment Managers that allows her to remain as Ark’s majority shareholder, according to statement Monday. Ark, which has $43.6 billion in assets under management, will retain Resolute’s distribution services for its products.

I use Questrade. No complaints other than the UI. The App is very average but the website is fine. A couple things I don't like about Questrade is that it takes too long to transfer money into your account and while you can hold multiple accounts, you cannot give them nicknames. I have one account for common stocks, one for ETFs, and one that it kind of a mad money fund. Questrade only shows you the account number. It is easy enough to just memorize the account number, but I don't know why they wouldn't just allow you to give names to your accounts. If there are any persons new to investing, I strongly advise against WealthSimple. Their UI is the absolute best, but unless you plan to exclusively trade on the TSX, it is not worth it for the fees you pay exchanging USD (you cannot hold an account with USD, so every transaction you lose about 1.5%).

It is one thing to be humiliated... it's another thing to be humiliated with zero energy to even pushback in any possible way. Feel for the German kids.

Kind of cheering for Germany to get a couple now. Goalies have had a brutal time playing the puck the last two days.

Specifically, time stands still in Edmonton.

Merry Christmas! OP Updated.

I'm on E5. Maybe one of the better new series of 2020. I'll give it a 9.5/10 so far. .

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/flash-surge-world-biggest-etf-174347806.html "Fat fingers" Lol. I hold SPY. Wish I was paying attention when someone accidentally increased the share price by 4% with a single trade.

I haven't read it yet, so can't comment... I like the ones that are more about the psychology of investing/speculating given that markets can change but adults' temperaments are fairly stable over time/contexts.

What am I missing/does anyone have a favorite?

Maybe Max Domi given he has diabetes and I think was hesitant about playing back in the summer return-to-play.

One thing that this might relate to is how apparently vaccines are not at all the type of drug pharma wants to make because people only need like 2 doses. Making a vaccine that is unaffordable during a pandemic would be a public relations nightmare... but if you can create a pill for depression or something that people need to take regularly, you can move a lot more of it and charge a more exorbitant price. Moderna experienced the same drop in stock as PFE after announcements in Canada and elsewhere (Germany?). It seems like PFE responds more to potential outcomes than actual ones. There was a spike when the possibility of a vaccine was announced and a drop when the actual vaccine was approved.