A lot of it comes down to gut feelings, some of it comes down to seeing falcon/Stamkos as town/wolf (the PM + hard bussing that would be going on if they're wolfmates makes me think they're not).
Stamkos has had a lot of questionable posts, but he's also made some highly TP gestures in my mind. I see worse from falcon and less of the good stuff. I've outlined my arguments against falcon and know you just read them over.