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Intoewsables

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Posts posted by Intoewsables

  1. 6 minutes ago, luckylager said:

    Ouch. Then I go to F3 with ae, who has already decided that he actually thinks AT is town, and I'm mafia. 

     

    Think about this. No doc in role madness? 

    I'm crazy enough to claim doc for what reason when I did?

     

    I sure as f**k was not being voted.

     

    Like why would I claim after NF with my save on TL, only to be blocked and TL show up dead?

     

    Why would I make a play that casts doubt on my own fake claim if I was mafia?

     

    Sad days. Sad sad days

    It's really not that clear cut.

     

    We have no way of knowing AE's role mechanics and how many self saves he actually gets. One? Two? Zero? Who knows? What if his wincon is to make it to F3? Again, who knows?

     

    The optimal play for the scum is to RB + MK AE and avoid any f**kery in F3. If they do that, it really makes no difference to us.

     

    All non-scum need to come to an agreement here, and AE says he's not voting AT. One of you needs to change your mind or we're hooped anyway.

  2. 5 minutes ago, luckylager said:

    @Intoewsables @AngryElf

     

    Seeing as bj won't end the game in a majority vote, I need you two to at least review the game without emotion.

     

    Think critically, be impartial. If you still somehow come to the conclusion that I'm mafia, well fine. 

    Rn you guys are lynching a claimed sheriff, in lylo, in a role madness game.

     

    Just think about that on your CDC tombstone.

     

    "In memory or Toews and AE, they voted out a claimed doc in lylo. 

    They meant well"

    Oh, I'll probably change my mind and think this is too crazy. Just give it a few hours.

  3. 15 minutes ago, Intoewsables said:

    I don't think I could ever forgive myself if I ended up nailing this game early on and never followed through.

    and more importantly, I don't think NIK will ever forgive us either. Dude had this game all figured out from the start, got killed for it, and we all just looked past it.

  4. On 9/22/2023 at 9:19 AM, Intoewsables said:

    Purely from a vibes perspective, I'm not crazy about LL and Ilunga. Something about Ilunga's last post feels really insincere to me, and I'm still not feeling any better about lucky.

    On 9/24/2023 at 10:51 AM, Intoewsables said:

    I just can't shake the feeling that they took out NIK because he was 3/3 on his SS/LL/Aladeen reads.

    On 9/23/2023 at 12:43 PM, Intoewsables said:

    Still feel like SS and LL are mafia, and if LL flips scum, Aladeen probably is too.

     

    f**k it, vote luckylager.

     

    I'll come back before nightfall to see if anyone's made a compelling argument for another player.

    I don't think I could ever forgive myself if I ended up nailing this game early on and never followed through.

  5. Whenever we end up in situations like this, I'm reminded of something that srsface said to me in one of my first mafia games many years ago. I couldn't make up my mind between two potential lynch candidates, and he gave me advice that has somehow stuck with me all these years.

     

    "You should always trust your gut. It knows when you're hungry, and what's more important than that?" (I'm paraphrasing, but you get the idea.)

     

    lucky has felt off to me the entire game. I chalked it up to him being a special when he claimed doctor, and I was willing to ignore my feelings because there wasn't a counterclaim. But f**k it, we're in LYLO and I'm allowed to do crazy shit.

     

    lucky's explanation for trying to save ilduce two rounds in a row smells like shit, and I should have questioned it more last round. I was fine going along with it to resolve WW, but I can't ignore the scumminess any longer. No doctor involved in the game as much as lucky would f**k that up, and then shrugging it off like it's no big deal is just wild. If I was doctor in that situation, you bet your ass I'd want to know what happened.

     

    (Side note: I have a feeling that both MR and now WW will be screaming at me for ignoring the signs on Aladeen and LL respectively. Sorry for taking so long to come around, but hopefully I/we are figuring this out just in time.)

     

    This is the last game we're ever going to play on CDC and we may as well finish it in spectacular fashion. Either we mislynch the doctor in LYLO and bungle this game in the most spectacularly potato fashion, or we blow up an impressive deepwolf game and give ourselves a real shot at winning this thing. That sounds infinitely more interesting than following the PoE list -- which has continually failed to turn up scum -- and hoping for the best.

  6. 43 minutes ago, Alchemy Time said:

    -first, llunga. this one is based on my above theory. llunga is the only player uninvestigated which cannot be 3HG. my argument for him is purely based on probability. I think it is more likely to hit mafia on him than WW because of this.


    -second, WW. This is the case if I'm simply overthinking it. Al was trying to engineer a tie, Maf shot duce to save WW. open and shut


    -third, LL. This is where the majority of my thinking has gone. We have seen no actual evidence that he is the doctor. zfetch didn't see him try to save TL, and then Zfetch got killed the next round, so were killed the only people who would be able to confirm LL's story.

    I don't follow your logic. If you're so worried about 3HG, why not pick a target from the pool you've identified as "could be either"? Seems like WW and LL are much more likely to yield an anti-town flip based on what you're saying.

     

    43 minutes ago, Alchemy Time said:

    This was the turning point for me though, reading back through the thread this morning. see third quote

    this is a big TMI slip. LL knew that whoever was the target of the Vig kill was gonna be around for another round.

    We have very different interpretations of that third quote then. I read it as lucky saying we miss out on the fun of an extra lynch by vig killing the other scum (WW).

     

    43 minutes ago, Alchemy Time said:

    and then I can further expand on 3hg players but for them tldr its probably toews and one of WW or if we're really unlucky SD

    How do you figure I'm more likely to be 3HG than SD?

  7. Just now, Alchemy Time said:

    This is a false dichotomy. You're ignoring my actual thought which is that 3hg is a 3 player scum team with no actions, immune to sheriff to balance out how we started with Sheriff, Watcher, Tracker roles. 

    Gotcha. I don't think BJ makes one 3P faction immune to investigations and the other not though. If you want to make an argument for that, then by all means, but I still think it's far more likely that the 3HG faction died when BW did.

  8. I really don't want to get bogged down with this too much, but intuitively, BW being the left head makes sense if he's the only member of the 3HG at game start. Whether his team would have grown through recruitment or some other mechanism, I have no idea. But overall, this seems more likely to me than everyone outside of me/SD/AE being scum or 3HG.

  9. For all we know, 3HG could be a cult-type role where BW was able to recruit up to 3 people (including himself), but never got the chance because he died N1.

     

    In the event that there are two more 3P players out there on top of the ~2 remaining scum, it would have to be everyone excluding myself, SD, and AE (TL investigated all of us and AE was the only one to come back as 3P), which seems highly unlikely.

  10. 3 minutes ago, Where's Wellwood said:

    I can't shake the feeling that LL is deepwolfing.

     

    Nobody has been successfully saved even once. Your only evidence of doctor is that no one counter claimed but it's possible in a game with a forum closure deadline that BJ didn't put in a doctor.

     

     

    Hah, that's not a bad argument.

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