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Everything posted by AV.
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@Blue Jay 22
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I think it's important to look at the MKs R1: falcon45ca R2: ------- R3: Qwags ROUND 1 A mafia team of Sharpshooter - luckylager would never kill falcon45ca over myself, Blue Jay 22, or Zfetch [Too many stronger town players left alive (not meant to be slight against falcon45ca), both players are straight-forward, no non-sense type of guys and likely don't engage in WIFOM] A mafia team of Sharpshooter - Alain Vigneault could kill falcon45ca over luckylager, Blue Jay 22, or Zfetch [WIFOM] A mafia team of Sharpshooter - Zfetch could kill falcon45ca over myself, luckylager, or Blue Jay 22 [WIFOM] A mafia team of Sharpshooter - Blue Jay 22 could kill falcon45ca over myself, luckylager, or Zfetch [WIFOM] -- ROUND 2 I'm not sure how or why there was no MK in R2 because all of us engaged in discussion just before nightfall on that day. I wouldn't be negligent as to not submit, I don't think luckylager would either. Zfetch's activity levels are usually all over the place and I know Blue Jay 22 was at work so it could be them forgetting/unable to submit but that's just speculation. I also brought up the possibility of the MK being an odd-night action only. Null for everybody. -- ROUND 3 Alain Vigneault as mafia wouldn't kill Qwags since Qwags correctly followed his lead and voted for Sharpshooter. Qwags also had suspicions of Blue Jay 22, which would have made him an easy pocket. Alain Vigneault only kills luckylager. luckylager as mafia wouldn't kill Qwags because he publicly suspected Qwags to be a deep-wolf (could have been as part of a play) and that would mean keeping Qwags alive makes an F4 a bit easier for him. luckylager only kills Zfetch since his suspicion of Blue Jay 22 keeps his F4 options open. Zfetch as mafia would kill Qwags to pit myself and Blue Jay 22 against each other. I publicly stated that if Darth Melvin wasn't a wolf, it would be Zfetch and then Blue Jay 22 in that order. Killing Qwags opens up that possibility. Zfetch is one for tricks so this is a legitimate possibility. Blue Jay 22 as mafia would kill Qwags to push a deep-wolf narrative. Unlike me, he didn't raise the possibility of a mafia team beyond Darth Melvin and Zfetch. I suppose there's also incentive to kill Qwags because Qwags did suspect him as a wolf in R2 but that would just be speculation/WIFOM. So, now that it's been narrowed down Zfetch and Blue Jay 22, we can ask why settle for this final 4? If you're Zfetch, you relish the challenge of getting a W over Alain Vigneault, Blue Jay 22, and luckylager, but you ultimately make things super hard for yourself because at least two of those three (Blue Jay 22 and Alain Vigneault) had you pegged as scum if Darth Melvin wasn't it. However, you've also suspected Alain Vigneault as being the deep-wolf so that's why you keep him alive and maybe that works in your favour. If you're Blue Jay 22, you don't really care about the F4. luckylager doesn't necessarily trust you but ultimately doesn't suspect you, Alain Vigneault has Zfetch pegged as mafia ahead of you as mafia, and Zfetch suspects Alain Vigneault as mafia and does not suspect you as mafia. It's also good insurance to get rid of Qwags since he won't be as easy to pocket given his suspicion of you. While it's ultimately close, I give the edge to Blue Jay 22 as the final guy.
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Like I've been saying, Sharpshooter would never go for a bussing play. He'd much rather try to power-wolf than try a risky, new-school play like that. And besides, knowing him, even if he did want to do that as a way to distance ourselves/get credit, he would have insisted on voting me out to keep himself alive to get the credit and not the reverse. For whichever two of you three are town, think a bit here. There's no scenario where I'm deep-wolfing. Look at the vote counts, look at my posts, and look at the events of this game.
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Round 1 BoKnows (3) - luckylager, Blue Jay 22, Sharpshooter Sharpshooter (2) - Zfetch, Alain Vigneault Alain Vigneault (1) - DarthMelvin Blue Jay 22 (1) - falcon45ca Qwags (1) - BoKnows --- There was a point near the end of this round where falcon45ca had his vote on me (which would have made it 2-2 for me/Sharpshooter) but he switched off. With Sharpshooter being in the lead, Blue Jay 22 makes it known he trusts luckylager (and follows him onto BoKnows), which allows Sharpshooter to save himself. I speculate that Sharpshooter would have been against a bus (which no doubt Blue Jay 22 would have wanted to do) so it becomes obvious he plants the luckylager trust seed as his reason so that Sharpshooter can save himself.
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I need to elaborate. I speculate that Blue Jay 22 (as mafia) has suggested this because it has pro-towny roots. It doesn't mean he's pro-towny because of it; it's just meant to reflect well on him because the plan itself is towny in nature.
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Right now, we deal with a slight, slight, tinfoil possibility that MKs are an odd-night action only as a way to compensate for (seemingly) no town specials. If that's the case, the mafia wouldn't have a kill this round and we would learn nothing. However, this would obviously reflect well on Blue Jay 22 because it is a pro-towny suggestion in its roots.
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Blue Jay 22's plan is towny under normal circumstances. No MK in R2 = not normal circumstances.
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No because the vote relied on Darth Melvin. It would have been tie or bust. Yes, you pushed for Sharpshooter but that's only because he was finito. I've been your teammate and I know how you are with teammate wagons. That's probably why there was no MK because I would have just logically deduced you a round earlier so you figured you may as well take out MIA Darth Melvin.
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What else should I be looking for lol? Yeah, your vote is on Sharpshooter to end the round but only because it was too late to save him. Darth Melvin was ded and so it was always headed for a tie. The town was fortunate that luckylager unvoted.
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A team of Sharpshooter and I would have just voted for Darth Melvin or Qwags. Blue Jay 22 even says in his grand manifesto that he believes the mafia lies in one of them. That's an easy W for us. It's Blue Jay 22, peeps.
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I didn't say that you kept your vote on me, I just said that you ended up voting me anyway. Anyways, these are the facts 1. Blue Jay 22 says Sharpshooter (wolf) is never w/w with Alain Vigneault (true) and Zfetch (maybe) 2. Alain Vigneault says Sharpshooter is mafia (true) 3. Blue Jay 22 votes for Alain Vigneault So, for all that effort in making that big post about potential teams, you sure bailed quickly when you could have just voted for Sharpshooter and looked really clean in doing so.
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All in a row.
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But you ended up voting for me anyway so was it really a "false pretense"?
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Lol yeah, that's what I'm saying. Your post basically works from the perspective that Sharpshooter is a wolf because you start naming people that can't be w/w with him. As I was saying, this was well before I even investigated him.
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It's the timing of the post. This was well before I came out with an investigation on Sharpshooter. It raises the possibility that he's a wolf well before that reality sets in.
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Cool. Vote Blue Jay 22
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Yeah, I'm kinda stumped rn. Kudos to whoever the last mafia is.
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Nah, mafia killed Qwags. It says so.
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I'm talking about in terms of who to vote. Everybody wasn't really willing to move off of Darth Melvin, even in spite of bringing up the possibility of the mafia being somebody else. That's what killed discussion.
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The lack of MK killed discussion. Yeah, we could speculate if it was deliberate or not but simple explanation suggests that it was Darth Melvin just being inactive af.
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Sure but everybody suspected me more than they did him. Between me and him, I would have been a more obvious yeet. The vote pressure only got onto him when I said I investigated him.
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It's not me. Having been Sharpshooter's teammate before and having been the host of a game where he randed mafia (you were his teammate too), he would never allow for himself to be bussed, even if it made 100% sense to do that play. There's no chance of us being teammates. The only further suspects should be Zfetch (for his rather foolishness in suggesting me as some sort of deep-wolf hidden teammate) and Blue Jay 22 (for his flip-floppity antics during my play last round).
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Uhhh I faked an investigation and he took the bait...that's how I knew.
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luckylager isn't mafia. The game was deadlocked at one point between me (town) and Sharpshooter (mafia) at 3-3 where he was voting for Sharpshooter. He would have been on Sharpshooter's side since a misyeet involving me would have ended things and won the game for the mafia. The same can be said for Qwags. The only possibilities for mafia are Darth Melvin, Zfetch, and Blue Jay 22 with likeliness in that exact order. I strongly believe the game is set up 7-2 and not 6-3, so that realistically only leaves Darth Melvin as our only option since he's the only one with a history of ghosting games because of amazon-like forest fires/basketball with my sons/new season of Big Brother/whatever. Therefore, between him and Sharpshooter, I could see them forgetting to submit a kill. Zfetch and Blue Jay 22 can be uber-tricky but at their core, they are efficiency guys and in this game, I don't see a reason for any one of them not submitting a name to be killed. The only possibility is that Sharpshooter was the one allowed to submit kills and couldn't because of his yeet. But if that's the case, we have an extra round to figure that out and bring that possibility if it comes to that.
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Blue Jay 22 kinda sketchy on the last few pages. Idk.. We'll have to see.