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JamesB

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Everything posted by JamesB

  1. 1. I have checked out a number of Canuck discussion alternatives. As far as I can tell CFF is by far the best. 2. As for allowing only positive comments, as far as I can see that is incorrect. I have posted both positive and negative comments and have read a lot of positive and negative comments. There is nothing I can see that looks like censorship. If anything, I would say that the rules at CFF are a bit looser than at CDC, although they are similar. Of course mods might disagree with individual posters, as they always have, but that is not the same as censorship. 3. It is too bad Vintage has not moved over to CFF as it was nice to get Canuck information the moment something happened (and sometimes before). Did Vintage work for the Canucks in some capacity? 4. But I think @-SN- and others have done a great job with CFF and I am grateful to them for getting it going.
  2. Dominant performance by the Canucks. Have to give credit to the JR/Alvin organization. They inherited one of the weakest prospect pipelines in the NHL and did not even have a full set of draft picks and somehow have built up a solid pipeline with quite a few guys who have the potential to be useful NHL players. The Canucks have added in guys like Bains, McWard, Hirose, Tolopilo, Bloom and others without needing to draft them. And let's keep in mind that 4 of the top 5 prospects are not even here (Willander, Lekker, Silovs, and DPetey). And, developmentally, the Canucks made a lot of progress last year with guys they inherited who were underpeforming, like Woo and Klim. JR's approach in Van reminds me of what he did in Pittsburgh -- build a lot of good value - low-cost depth around a few elite players. OK, maybe I am overracting to the first game of a young stars tournament but this is a great start to the season.
  3. McWard and Brzustewica have both looked very good. The first line of Sasson, McDonough, and Klim were dominant in the first period and have been very good overall.
  4. Zlodeyev also stood out for me. This is what David Quadrelli (Managing Editor of Canucks Army) wrote: "I read on Twitter just now that his KHL contract was terminated... Faber is going to look into it (he has all the prospect connections)" I would like to Zlodeyev in Abby this year. The problem is that the Canucks are running out of contract space. They have used 46 out of 50 contract spots. Teams have to keep at least a couple of spots open for opportunities/emergencies that might come up in the season and I could see the Canucks maybe signing one of the invitees from the young stars.
  5. The days of the designated fighter are gone. What you need are a bunch of guys who can stand up for teammates when needed and who contribute to overall team toughness. Despite losing Schenn, the Canucks are better on this dimension than last year. As mentioned by @ilduce39, Joshua, Miller, (a healthy) Pearson, Soucy, Cole and Myers all contribute. Matt Irwin (if he makes the team) is no pushover and neither is Podkolzin. And Hogs plays with an edge. Would I like more size and toughness on the team? Sure. But the Canucks are not in bad shape on this dimension.
  6. From what I have read (and from what I remember) this is the earliest start the Canucks have had for many years, and it is first time for many years that pretty much the entire team is skating in Vancouver significantly before camp opens (a full two weeks before). So it is different this time.
  7. This is a good idea. But I noticed other glitches (at least I think they are glitches) on NHL.com websites so I am betting CDC will be okay.I certainly hope so. Even when there is no genuine hockey news and it is late at night someone on CDC will post something interesting, or funny, or crazy, or something.
  8. In various posts over the past several months I have expressed the opinion that I think Myers should be traded as soon he becomes "tradeable" due to paying his bonus on Sept. 15 and I have said that I think that is what the Canucks will do. At this stage, I am revising my opinion. There are three reasons. 1. I thought the Canucks needed cap space to upgrade the 3C position. But the Canucks managed to sign Suter and Bluegar on cheap contracts that fit under the cap without needing to get rid of any significant contracts. 2. It has become clear that Poolman will start the season on LTIR. That was always expected but there was some uncertainty. 3. With Poolman on LTIR, the Canucks can be cap compliant even if Mikheyev and Pearson (and Myers) are on the active roster to start the season, although they would need to have a 22-man roster to do it. But with Abby so close, I do not see a significant problem with going with just 22 guys instead of 23. 4. There is some chance that Mikheyev will not be ready to start the season. If so, he could go on LTIR, eliminating any cap concerns to start the season. When he comes back, assuming everyone is still healthy (which is unlikely) the Canucks can then go to a 22-man roster. 5. While 6M is too high a cap hit for a third pairing D, it is likely that Myers would be a good 3rd pairing RD. His numbers were poor last year, especially on the PK. But with other guys being "first over the boards" on the PK and taking the tougher deployments at 5-on-5, Myers numbers would almost certainly improve. And if Foote and Gonchar can get through to him and make him play a smarter and more conservative game (fewer bad pinches, fewer bad penalties, etc.) he could be quite valuable. There is no-one out there who the Canucks could easily acquire who would be an obvious improvement. And his attitude seems very good right now. I would give him a shot. I would like to see him paired with Wolanin on the 3rd pairing.
  9. Have to agree that the D+! years for Petey and Lekker could not have been more different. Petey's development took off like a rocket while Lekker struggled. However, I would not say Lekker's season was "terrible". It was partially redeemed by his excellent showing in the playoffs. If he had missed the entire regular season and only started in the playoffs we would all be excited about his development. The other point is that Petey was one of the oldest guys in his draft year (mid-Nov. birthday) and Lekker was one of the youngest in his (late July birthday). It would actually make more sense to compare Lekker's D+2 year with Petey's D+1 year. Of course, no one is expecting Lekker's D+2 year in the SHL to match Petey's, but I am still expecting good things.
  10. Just to pile on, one of Myers' biggest flaws is taking penalties. It is strange that taking and drawing penalties get so little attention given that we all understand how important the PP and PK are. Anyway, last year Myers took 27 minor penalties and drew 6 for a horrendous net of -21, by far the worst on the team. The next most prolific taker of minor penalties was Miller, who took 20 minor penalties. But he drew 24 so Miller ends up positive on this dimension. The worst net number after Myers was Schenn, who took 18 and drew 8, for a net of -10, and he provided a lot more hits and a lot more toughness in return for that differential. On the other side of the coin, Petey took 7 minor penalties and drew 39 for a phenomenal +32, which led the NHL. In advanced stats, when you look at what counts for winning and losing, net penalties plays a surprisingly big role.(Faceoff wins, on the other hand, are not as important as most people seem to think, although obviously it is nice to win faceoffs). Myers was also surprisingly bad on the PK, despite the fact that the Canuck PK coach (Yeo) kept sending him "first over the boards" on the PK, he had a very poor expected goals against per 60. (Admittedly, the Canucks did not have a lot good options last year and the PK defence should be much better this year.)
  11. JamesB

    Captaincy

    I would also go with 3 A's. But I see no rush to name a captain. If someone emerges as the obvious choice, great. Otherwise 3 A's is probably better. None of the three top candidates is a natural fit. Petey is on the shy side, does not like interacting with the media and, by all accounts, doesn't really like telling the other guys on the team what to do. With Hughes, I could see the job getting him down. He is a great player but he is not the most upbeat guy in the world to start with. And, as others have said, Miller is too volatile and he has had occasional minor run-ins with other players on the team. And what happens when the media turns on Miller because he is not living up to his contract (which will happen sooner or later). By sharing the load, I think it helps all 3 guys and is good for team. A guy I see as captain down the road is Willander. He seems to have the skills to be a great player and the personality to be a good captain.
  12. I have pretty much the same read as @kloubek. One way of thinking of disappointment is poor performance relative to reasonable expectations. So -- a player I thought might do well but turned out, well, disappointing. I would put OJ and Virtanen and OEL in that category. I did not like either of the picks and I did not like the OEL trade but I thought that all three guys would at least be ok -- bad decisions by Benning, but not disastrous decisions, which is what they turned out the be. The other type of disappointment is the disappointment the moment the move was announced. I remember the moment I learned about the Messier signing. Paying a huge amount of money as a "shortcut" to success never works and signing a guy with a big ego and strong sense of entitlement in his late prime to a huge contract is asking for trouble, which is what the Canucks got. Messier gets my vote overall. Another move where I said "Oh, no" the moment it was announced was the Erkisson move. Of course, everyone knew that Benning was going to throw away a lot of money on at the opening of free agency. To me, the most disappointing "moves" have been the sequence of owners. The combination of Aquilini as owner and Benning as GM was, in my view, the worst one-two combination in the NHL. The question now is whether a good President and GM can overcome a bad owner. I am actually hopeful. And it is a good sign that no move made by JR and PA is even close to consideration for the "worst move" list.
  13. Exactly the same thoughts went through my mind when I heard about the move. I like the signing, but there must be a plan in place to create cap space and it is pretty certain that part of that plan is that Poolman stays on LTIR. The simplest solution for the rest is that Pearson starts the season on LTIR. Otherwise I think moving Myers is the next most likely option. That is why we have not heard about it yet --because we have wait until his bonus is paid on Sept. 15. The third option is to trade a winger. But that won't be easy as the Canucks will need to retain salary or include a draft pick of other asset to make it work.
  14. Sorry for being "that guy", but I am going to say that Hirose is officially "over-hyped". Yes, he looked "cool" on the ice and he made a couple of very nice plays with the Canucks that made highlight reels. But, according to underlying stats, his overall performance was not particularly good. Using Evolving Hockey's GAR (goals above replacement) stat, he was behind Wolanin, McWard, Rathbone, Brisebois, and Juulsen (and Matt Irwin, although Irwin was on a different team), The sample size was small enough that xGAR is probably a better stat to use than GAR, but it is the same story. And his number was negative -- below the level of an expected "replacement-level" player. He is a smart player who handles the puck well (passing and stickhandling) and has good mobility. Those things make him a good puck-carrier. But he light (170 lbs) and lacks the physical strength you would like on a 3rd pairing D. And he is not a particularly fast skater (unlike Hughes, who has good speed to go along with great mobility). Adding things up, Wolanin, Brisebois, and Irwin are more reliable defensively and more able to hold their own in puck battles and in battles for position. I am still happy that the Canucks signed Hirose. He said he needed work on adding strength this summer and that could make a difference. But I think he will need to show strong performance in a long sample in Abby before he is ready for the NHL But is great that the Canucks have a lot of guys who are legitimate contenders to be good NHL defenders now or in the near future. Nice to have competent management after the disaster of the Benning years.
  15. As this has turned into a Silovs thread, I will join in. The thing that is really impressive about Silovs is his rate of improvement. Two years ago he was barely on the radar screen as a 6th round pick with so-so results up to the point, including 10 games for Abby in 2021-22 posting an underwhelming save percentage of 88.8%. But in the IIHF world championships at the end of the 2021-22 season he earned the #1 job for Latvia and played very well. That moved him onto the radar screen for a lot of people. In 2022-23 (last year) he played mainly in Abby. He was ok at the start but just kept improving and handled a call-up to Vancouver well, posing a 90.8 save percentage in 5 games. He was named Abby's MVP for year. And then he went to the IIHF World Championships again were he was fantastic, leading Latvia to their first ever medal and being named tournament MVP. His progress have been outstanding. There is always uncertainty but if his late season performance in Abby and his IIHF performance are anything to go by, he is at least at the quality of an NHL backup right now. Of course, it makes more sense for him to play as the #1 in Abby rather than be a backup in Vancouver. and there is always uncertainty about goalies but right now the Canucks are fortunate to have him.
  16. Nice OP @CRAZY_4_NAZZY. The only think I would add is some of the guys who "graduated" will have to start the season in Abby, just due to the numbers. To be consistent with the OP, the left side on the Canucks would be Hughes, Soucy, Irwin, and Wolanin and the right side would be Hronek, Cole, Myers and Juulsen. That means 8 guys on D and therefore only 13 forwards. That will include the following 10 guys: Petey, Miller, Kuz, Mikheyev, Boeser, Beauvillier, Bluegar, Garland, Joshua, and Hoglander (as he is no longer waiver exempt). The following guys will be competing for the final 3 forward spots: Aman, Podkolzin, PDG, Pearson, Dries, Studnika, There is a chance Pearson stays on LTIR. Dries and Aman will be fighting for the 4C spot. Tochett likes PDG, Hard to see Studnika making the team and I think the odds are against Dries as well. And if Pearson is healthy enough to play and good enough to make the team, then probably Podz or PDG will be sent to Abby. Personally, I would pencil Dries and Studnika into the Abby lineup right now.
  17. Reasonable point of view. I would argue that Myers' biggest negative for the Canucks was on the PK. He played a lot minutes and played them poorly. According to Evolving Hockey's GAR stat on the PK he was the worst D on the team and it was not close. That is consistent with other advanced stats I have seen (and with not-so-advanced stats as well, not to mention just the eye test). For some reason the coaches just kept sending him in as the "first guy over the boards" at RD on PK. With Cole, Soucy, Hronek, and Irwin all on board, Myers should get much less PK time so he will hurt the team less. I agree that he would be okay as a 3rd pairing RD playing limited minutes. Not a great return for a cap hit of 6 million, but he probably would be better than the alternative in that spot, at least for now. But if the Canucks trade Myers, the could re-sign Bear, which would certainly help the team.
  18. I still think Myers is fairly likely to be traded after his $5 million bonus is paid on Sept. 15. I agree there are not many potential targets left. But the Canucks could, say, retain 25%, which would mean that the acquiring team would use up 4.5 million in cap space but pay only 750K in real money -- not a bad deal for Myers. It might not happen and I would not mind keeping Myers as a 3rd pairing D except that the Cap is going to be an issue if and when Pearson is healthy enough to play. Trading Myers is better than the other workarounds.
  19. I know I shouldn't get into this, but I will. @HKSR is right. There are lots of people (accountants, player agents, economists) who routinely do comparative cost of living calculations. Lots of websites do them. Here is one https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living You can compare the cost of living across any two cities, like Vancouver and Tampa. The website answers the following question. If you have some amount of money after tax (like US$1 million) to spend in Tampa, how much would you need (after tax) to buy the same stuff in Vancouver. Of course, for any given person it depends on what things they like to buy, but these websites use a standard consumption bundle. The comparison between Vancouver and Tampa shows that they are similar, but Vancouver is slightly more expensive. This is AFTER adjusting for exchange rates. So, Alf, your argument that the exchange rate comparison somehow makes an NHL salary worth more in Vancouver just is not right. This website does not incorporate tax effects. There are also websites that will do comparative tax calculations. NHL tax comparisons are tricky because the amount of tax players depends on where they reside at different times of the year and players also pay "jock taxes" on income they are deemed to earn in the cities where they play away games. Still, once you account for taxes, Florida teams and other low-tax teams have a big advantage over Vancouver in terms of the after-tax purchasing power provided by equal before-tax income. A good article on all this is here: https://hockey-graphs.com/2019/01/08/how-much-do-nhl-players-really-make-part-2-taxes/ This article has a nice table showing the effective tax rate for a bunch of different players, The data is a bit old but the comparison are still correct. The highest effective tax rates on the list are for Montreal and Toronto (both about 53%). The lowest are for Nashville and Dallas (both about 37%). That is pretty big difference. Of course, many players prefer to be in cities like Vancouver, Montreal, Toronto, and the California cities for various personal reasons and are willing to give up some after tax purchasing power for that. But teams like Vegas, Dallas, and the Florida teams have an advantage. Today in the Athletic there is a good article comparing the "contract efficiency" of various teams. Here is the URL.https://theathletic.com/4707263/2023/07/31/nhl-contract-efficiency-rankings-2023/ Guess which teams are at the top. The teams at the top are low tax teams. Florida is first, Carolina is second, and Colorado is third. Those are all low tax teams. Vancouver rates about the middle in 18th place, which is not bad in view of the high-cost, high-tax environment. Taxes are not the whole story. A lot of the story relates to GM competence and to the intrinsic appeal of different cities to players. But low taxes give some teams a head start.
  20. The majority opinion on CDC at this stage seems to be that the Canucks made the right call in taking Willander over Benson at #11. On draft day, I had Benson ahead of WIllander and thought it was unlikely that Benson would fall out of the top 10. But, like a lot of other people, I am now glad that the Canucks took Willander, although that could just be confirmation bias or rationalization. I want to believe that Willander is a great prospect so I interpret what I see as being consistent with that. But, being honest, there is a lot of uncertainly. We can all think of smallish, high-skill, scoring wingers who were great in junior but who never did much in the NHL. But some smallish, high-skill, scoring wingers become elite players. And with defencemen there is even more uncertainty. As others have said, there is not much we can do except wait and see how things work out. Of course we known that Benson will score a ton in junior (assuming he goes back to the WHL), but it is very hard to predict how Willander will do in the NCAA. Hope he sets the Hockey East conference in the NCAA on fire, wins the Hobey Baker award and turns pro next year.
  21. I'll bite on this. 1. When evaluating a young player current performance is important but the career trajectory is also important. Sometimes a player will look really good for a year, hit a plateau for a year, but then later have a resurgence. All three of those years are relevant in assessing potential. 2. When he was in his mid-teens Raty was regarded as a serious contender to go first overall when he entered the draft. His draft year (2020-21) was a bit disappointing but it was still a surprise that he fell into the mid-2nd round (52 overall). But he had a bounce-back in 2021-22 as a point-a-game player in Liiga and at the World Juniors and was strong defensively. 3.. Going into 2022-23 he was regarded as the Islanders top prospect. (See Top prospects for New York Islanders (nhl.com)_. 4. Despite being one of the youngest players in the AHL in 2022-23 and playing center, he did well in the AHL, with a total of 27 points 53 games and a solid +5 in plus/minus. He did well enough to be called up to the NHL by the Islanders until he was traded to Vancouver. In his time in the NHL in 2022-23 he showed that he was already a legitimate defensively oriented 4th liner at the NHL level in his draft+2 season. That puts him way above the expected value for a mid-range 2nd round pick--more like a mid-range 1st rounder. And he is expected to have a significant offensive upside. 5. As for skills, there have been mixed scouting reports on his skating, with some people saying that is a concern. Faber has a good piece on Raty at Canucks Army and spent a lot of time watching him. Faber says his speed is good but that either his agility might be a bit slow or his reads might be slow. But lots of scouts have said that he is a good skater, with excellent balance and good speed. (And he has been getting a lot of one-on-one time with Henrik and the skating coach at Abby). 6. As for the rest of his skills, he a strong all-around 200 ft player. He has decent size and is not soft, with at least a bit of "bite" in his game. He is regarded as having very good puck skills, including a very good wrist shot good passing skills. He is aslo good in his own zone and a good forechecker. 7. Many people, including me, think that Raty was the key piece in the Horvat trade. The Islanders gave him up because the Canucks insisted on him. . 8. There are no guarantees, but Raty looks very likely to fill the 3C role soon, maybe as soon as this year (although he will likely start in Abby), but probably in the following year. He was a great pick-up in the Horvat trade. I think that trade was a steal for Vancouver (even though I did not like giving up the 1st round pick they obtained to get Hronek).
  22. Some guys love hockey so much they just want to play and if they can make enough to pay the bills on a day-to-day basis they will keep going as long as possible -- AHL, ECHL, Euro leagues, whatever. And when they can't play any more they try to get a job as a minor league assistant coach somewhere. These guys are looking at below average lifetime income trajectories (below the average in the general population). Then there are guys whose alternative opportunities (opportunity cost) are not very good. Not to offend anyone, but I would much rather play in the AHL for 80K (US dollars, so about 105K in Canadian dollars) than working on a construction site. I would be pretty happy playing and living in Abby for C$105 per year for a few years. And being a high end AHL player and getting maybe 300K in Canadian dollars would be pretty good. But a lot of guys bail when they realize they will never make the NHL, especially if they have other career aspirations. I have talked to a couple of guys who bailed and went to University after playing minor league hockey. And of course, for guys who get married and start a family, the minor league life is tough. For most guys, being a 30-year-old AHL/ECHL tweener does not work..
  23. The AHL does not publish official salary numbers. However, the following article states that the average AHL salary last year was $105,000, well above MDP's 80K minor league salary. https://www.silverskatefestival.org/the-different-levels-of-professional-hockey-how-much-do-rookie-players-make/ However, he played mostly in the ECHL last year, where the average was 52K, well below MKP's minors salary for next year.. After deducting his agent's fee and escrow and a few other costs that players have, he is not getting rich. I wonder if he will play in the ECHL or AHL next year.
  24. I was wondering if anyone would suggest Toews as a solution to the 3C problem. As others have indicated, it would be a terrible idea. He was an excellent player in his prime (obviously) but through a combination and age and Covid he is no longer an NHL quality player. A tanking team like Chicago was willing to play him but no good team could afford to have him in the line-up. He has no chance of being adequate defensively and is unlikely to contribute much offence. I would be surprised if he plays in the NHL again.
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