Good post. Im glad this has been brought up.
The first thing to point out is Dorofeyev is one of the older players in this years draft class. I think hes only a month out from being draft eligible last year.
My understanding is Podkolzin was bouncing around between the teams. I think he started off in the MHL & then didnt play there again basically all year until playoffs. And in VHL was more of a secondary player. Someone would have to double check icetimes on that though.
Anyways, part of projecting is beyond stats & looking at tools/skillsets. I disagree that Podkolzin doesnt have playmaking skill or defensive ability. I think Podkolzin is a good defensive player already (as you said, his details are very strong). And I think hes a better playmaker than he's maybe getting credit for, especially downlow & around the net.
I dont think of him as a low IQ player, and I dont think hes a risky pick (as far as not playing). But i do wonder about his upside.
Im not ready to totally drop him down my list, but l wouldnt take him top 5. (Russian factor aside)