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Everything posted by canucklehead44
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[Rumour] Nikita Tryamkin eyeing NHL return
canucklehead44 replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I hope he signs elsewhere and becomes an effective player. Hate how we managed this situation. -
I was a bit disappointed at first but now I am pretty happy with the trade. We got the Islanders top prospect and a mid-round pick, which has a 70% success rate vs a late first which is only about a 40% success rate. Beauvillier has only one year left so its a worthwhile gamble - might be able to fetch us a 2nd or 3rd in the next TDL
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[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
canucklehead44 replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Boeser, Dermott & Delia to NJ for Johnsson, Blackwood and Bahl -
Unfortunately if it is a rebuild you want this the opposite of what will happen. They will spin tires trying to make the playoffs every year. I always thought about it would be cool to release a vote out to the fan base. For sample: What direction would you like the Canucks to go in? And have three options: Rebuild, Retool, and Compete with a summary of what each plan entails. Or if they are deciding on an option, like trade or re-sign Bo Horvat, have the fans vote on it. Maybe it won't be a final decision but it would be cool to have some sort of say.
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I agree with this. If we retain 3 million on Myers - we likely get a 3rd rounder for him. Buyout is useless. Or trade him for Patrick Nemeth - Myers makes 1 million in cash and Nemeth makes 3.5 (2.5 cap hit). Also means we send him or Stillman down which saves us net 4.7 million in cap. Even if we move a late pick back to Arizona, they can also likely move Myers for more at the deadline for Nemeth so they save a considerable amount of cash, get a better player, and some picks. No brainer??? Retain 1.9 million on Garland or 3 million on Boeser and we probably get a 2nd. I think Mikheyev is tradable but is a good fit given his PK abilities. Buyouts are so stupid. I really hope we don't go that route.
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But we got Carolina to retain salary and throw in Pederson in the Bear trade and only gave up a 5th (Pederson alone was traded for a 4th not long before) I am guessing that trade was in the works and we had to move out Dick to make is happen. A 2nd & 5th for Bear (salary retained), Stillman, and Pederson is a good trade
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(Rumour) 4 teams interested in J.T. Miller
canucklehead44 replied to combover's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
10 points per million is the same as $100K per point haha so exactly what I said I calculate it out over an 82 game pace though. A guy who gets 40 points in 50 games and is injured for 32 is still worth more than a guy who gets 55 points in 82 games. But yes they are under performing a bit but from a forwards perspective the numbers are stellar compared to what we saw during the Benning era, and there were a bunch! Our forward group is actually very solid, and its not like we cheaped out cap on our defence either. For whatever reason our defensive systems are just a disaster - both goals allowed 5 on 5 and our near history worse PK. And with Mikheyev being an addition to improve that, and he has performed in that role (far in away our best penalty killer), how are the other guys so much worse? Its really bizarre JT was a guy seen as having intangibles - physical, leader, faceoffs, plays all forward positions etc. I would like to see him get moved for a smaller contract (as well as Horvat getting traded). In an ideal world we move Horvat to Boston with Carlo as the main piece coming back. For the teams listed in this thread, I wouldn't mind these type of deals Penguins - Carter or Kapanen, conditional 1st/2nd round pick, Calle Clang, Isaac Bellieveau Detroit - Robbi Fabbri, conditional 1st/2nd round pick, Antii Tuomisto New Jersey - Yegor Sharangovich, conditional 2nd/3rd round pick, Mackenzie Blackwood, Shakir Mukhamadullin (also sending Spencer Martin to NJ) -
(Rumour) 4 teams interested in J.T. Miller
canucklehead44 replied to combover's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
EP is #1 in the league, Kuz 11, Bo 14. We are actually getting incredible production from a number of players - Detroit for example doesn't have a forward in the top 100 while we have 5 in the top 31. When you filter the minutes to 200 that increases the numbers to 411 and we have Lazar at 406, Aman at 381, Joshua at 311, Dries at 296 etc I agree with your points though. Generally $100K per point is a rough estimate for the top value paid for an offensive forward. So ideally at $90k per point Boeser would be at $5.4 million and Garland at $3.7M. Myers is a difficult one. I'd say if we retained half his salary we could get a late round pick so I'd put hi at $3M. Right now he is at around $300k per point and OEL is at around $200k per point (doesn't really work the same way evaluating dmen). OEL at $4.5 million seems fair. Defence value is extremely hard to measure. Boeser - 5.4 Garland - 3.7 OEL - 4.5 Myers - 3 -
(Rumour) 4 teams interested in J.T. Miller
canucklehead44 replied to combover's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Brock is at a 60 point pace, so about $110K per point Garland is at a 41 point pace, $117k per point. I filtered forwards with minimum 400 minutes played and out of a total of 283 players Brock is ranked 31st for points per minute 5 on 5 with good company: Garland is ranked 180, also not terrible in the company he is in but a bit disappointing. Miller at 213 is unacceptable. -
I guess after the Benning era my standards are pretty low haha I don't put sole blame on management for how poorly the team is doing - I believe they iced a good team. Why did OEL and Myers suddenly turn to crap? How did Demko go from a top 5 goalie to a bottom 5, and was voted one of the most disappointing players in the league earlier this season? Why are some of the guys who did well on the PK last year like Horvat all of a sudden terrible? WTF happened to Garland and Miller? Overall I thought they were working with a pretty good team (performed well post Green firing) and added some really nice pieces to add to that. In hindsight things haven't worked out but I can at very least support some of their decisions at the time. Benning on the other hand made me pull my hair out with some of the moves he made. Now things in my mind will become an F given how they manage this situation. If we trade Horvat, Schenn, and anyone else for some piece of value and re-sign Kuz I keep my B-. If we end up letting any UFA walk, re-sign Horvat for a ridiculous contract and then buy out guys to make cap they will get an F. Also if we end up drafting 5th or 6th overall like we always do - is there a move to get Bedard? Is that Podkolzin + 4 first round picks?
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Is this the hardest season ever to be a Canucks fan?
canucklehead44 replied to CanuckFan1123's topic in Canucks Talk
2016-2017 was bad. Bo Horvat lead the team in scoring with 20 goals - that team was painfully boring to watch. We signed Loui Eriksson who was a bust. I was very pissed off about trading McCann and the high 2nd for Gudbranson. I was upset when we drafted Olli Juolevi. We had so many garbage players like Megna and Chaput. Granlund was on our first line. Brandon Sutter was on our top power play unit. The only thing I liked about that season was Nikita Tryamkin and when Boeser joined at the end. But on paper our team this year should have been very good. We finished last year strong and management has made great individual moves. Demko was horrible and got injured, and our defense has been bad - especially OEL-Myers. -
This is huge. I remember when Benning was too incompetent to trade Hamhuis at the deadline and he walked as a UFA. If any of these guys don't get traded and don't re-sign that is massive mistake. I actually think management is an enormous upgrade over Benning (looking through his transactions, particularly signings, it is hilarious how inept he was) but they need to find a direction. I would love it if we could sell JT - even for a guy like Voracek who we could maybe flip for picks next year and clear up the cap space. If they start buying out guys instead of letting contracts run out that will be a really bad look.
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I think this management group is leaps and bounds better than Benning. I don't love the Miller signing but to be fair it was a good value at the time. Miller had shown consistent performance and was over a point per game as a Canuck. Kuzmenko is an interesting case and incredible find, but outside of "1 year guys" Mikheyev is our best free agent signing since Hamhuis & Malhotra back in 2010. He is by far our top penalty killer (although that is not saying much) and is on pace for 20+ goals and 50+ points. His 5 on 5 productivity is 63rd in the league which is fantastic. Dermott was a great pick up, also amazing they got a 3rd for Hamonic. On its own the Dickinson trade was horrible, but when you loop it in with the Ethan Bear trade it was fantastic (getting a player like Bear, who is earning 1.6M, for just a 2nd round pick essentially is a great deal). Management was put into a bad position. Benning was given a team in clear need of a rebuild and had some vets with some value. JR/Allvin have the core young pieces but have been straddle with terrible decisions made by the previous regime. I would have preferred they moved out Miller or waited, as well as waited on Brock and just paid the extra money to qualify him if needed. Aman was a good find. Joshua is one of our best 4th line signings. Lazar was a solid low risk add-on and is better than the guys Benning paid $3M for the same role. He also picked up Filip Johnasson who is one of our top 5 prospects. But this team's failure is largely thanks to Benning and his horrible contracts and they went a bit too gung ho in the compete window. I give the management a B-.
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I agree with you. I wanted Miller traded so badly at the deadline or this offseason. I was glad we didn't lose him for nothing like we have with so many other players but this has put us in a pickle. I am hoping we trade Horvat as I think he will also revert back to being a 60-65 point player and be another anchor contract
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[Signing] Wilds Re-sign Matt Boldy 7x7M$
canucklehead44 replied to timberz21's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
11 points in 43 games in the DEL, 6'4 and right handed shot. Not sure why he was ranked so low. Broberg had worse numbers in the second division Swedish league. Soderstrom has worse numbers in a better league (SHL) but a 5'11 frame. -
It is shocking fans are so upset about Miller when if you combine the best seasons of Eriksson, Roussel, and Beagle they had less points combined than what Miller is on pace for this year. Big free agents are usually signed at around a point per 100K - so Miller was actually a great value off the season he had and even this year isn't too far off that mark. Cost per points on some of Benning's signings (while they played in Vancouver) Dickinson - $250K Roussel - $209K Beagle - $346K Schaller - $237k Eriksson - $333k Gagner - $185k There are so many more but so ugly!!!! Right now Mikheyev is $88k per point and our top penalty killer and Miller is at $108K.
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And what would we need to give up to move Garland and OEL right now? Forsling was waived after that trade was made. Its not like traded Forsling for Loui Eriksson and got anchored by a bad contract. At least in the Neely trade Barry Pederson didn't hurt the Canucks and was part of a trade tree in the Ronning deal. This trade is actively hurting us - missing out on who would be our top prospect and the availability of strong RHD in that second round just makes it so much worse.
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People also forget that Mikheyev played a part in us getting Kuzmenko. Mikheyev has been far and away our best penalty killer and is performing above his pay points wise with limited power play time. In fact I think he is our best signing since July 1 2010 when we signed both Malhotra and Hamhuis. Benning's only really good signings were pretty small - Vanek & Schenn. And oh boy reading through the list of nightmares is gut wrenching lmao. I hate buyouts. They are almost never worth it. I'd rather we sell Horvat as he has value and once Pearson (who might not even count for the cap next year) and Myers expire we after next season we will be in pretty good shape. Holtby, Virtanen, and Halak are also coming off the books this year. If we would have let our 12 million dollar 4th line run out and drafted Guenther plus one of the several RHD available in the second round we would have so much cap space and good youth in the system. I think that was the worst trade in Canucks history.
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At least that team made the playoffs consistently. Instead of rebuilding Benning just traded away and downgraded more picks, made horrible signings, and gave us one last middle finger with OEL and Garland. When Allvin took over he was in a much more difficult spot as the team was more ready for a compete window. Benning had a good defensive defenseman, two young goalies and a centre to work with. Not a lot but by selling vets, wealonizing cap space, and drafting high that can be filled. The Kesler trade was pretty good (although he could have acquired Theodore over Sbisa) but he drafted what should have been our 2nd line centre. Ehlers was the BPA - top line left wing. Next we drafted Boeser and in the 2016 draft we had DeBrincat at 13. If we took Tkachuk (BPA) we would have already had built out a pretty good forward lineup: Tkachuk Horvat Boeser Ehlers McCann DeBrincat Benning just did way too much without really any direction and made horrific short term trades and signings. If he just left things alone and picked the BPA our team would have been good much sooner in most likely. Gillis moved assets for trades that made sense at the time - the one that hurt was Keith Ballard but we weren’t guaranteed to land Hamhuis - Grabner got waived and the draft pick became Quinton Howden so Florida lost the trade as well. So looking at the last what should the focus be? Cap flexibility and acquiring more picks and young players while building around the core. EP, Hughes, Demko are a fantastic trio to build around. Bringing back Kuzmenko and our first line is set. Trade Horvat for Carlo (if we can) and that top pairing is set. Ideally snatch a pick and or prospect as well. If we can retain 30-50% on Myers and take back Reilly as well that is a win-win add on. Trade Miller for a younger 2nd line centre (Fabbri, Strome) and get a pick and some cap space. Boeser and Garland are not really the problem or solution, but we should not let either go while their value is zero.
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[Waivers] Eeli Tolvanen
canucklehead44 replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I was hoping we could make a Boeser + trade for Tolvanen and Fabbro. He is doing great in Seattle. -
[Report] Sabres Goalie Prospect to hit Free Agency
canucklehead44 replied to HKSR's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
We are paying Holtby and Halak 3.4 million this year - they combined for 11 wins over two seasons. I'd much prefer having the Martins and Delias battling each other for backup roles than paying for a vet again. -
[Report] Sabres Goalie Prospect to hit Free Agency
canucklehead44 replied to HKSR's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Rathbone for Portillo & Mats Lindgren so he can carry on his father's legacy -
(Rumour) 4 teams interested in J.T. Miller
canucklehead44 replied to combover's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I think management has done a solid job. When Benning took over it was clearly time to rebuild. The core was past prime and we had minimal good young players. But instead that era traded and downgraded more picks than acquired. the team now is different. Management inherited a solid young core in EP, Hughes, Demko, Boeser, Horvat. With Horvat creeping toward the end of his prime - and EP/Hughes starting theirs competing now actually made sense especially after almost a decade of floundering. The moves they made have been great, and while re-signing Miller in hindsight hasn’t been great it sure made a lot more sense than trading a top 10 pick and a second rounder for two terrible contracts