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Everything posted by canucklehead44
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2013-14 Prospect Points Tracker
canucklehead44 replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Looking at the 2011 draft, our "prospect" 3rd round forward, 5th round defenseman, and 7th round defenseman are all outscoring our first round scoring forward. I would love to see that draft produce three NHL players, even if Jensen doesn't make it. I think Corrado is a lock and Grenier has about a 70% chance. Tommernes is adjusting to the pro game and is second amongst Dmen in Utica as a rookie, Blomstrand has the tools to be a utility forward on the fourth line, and of course I haven't wrote of Jensen yet. Labate is a bit of a long shot, but that draft has potential to produce 5 NHL players and will likely produce at least 3. Not bad. -
There is no way he stays when everyone is healthy but I would rather have him over Weise or Sestito. I like Welsh at centre, Dalpe is a waste of space.
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I would like Archibald to stick. Played an overage year in junior with two years in pro. It is not that he is too goo for the AHL, I just think he is better off acclimating himself has a 4th line NHL player capable of playing 8-10 minutes per night VS playing 18-20 minutes per night in a top 6 role in the AHL.
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Relative corsi of 15 is great, especially compared to Pelletier at -42, Dalpe at -56. QOC was also right in the middle, so he didn't play super easy minutes. I would love Archibald to be a Jordan Nolan type of player. Young, big, physical, with some offensive upside. Jordan Nolan 6'3, 227lbs 24 yrs best junior season: 23 goals, 48 points in 49 games best ahl season: 9 goals, 22 points in 40 games Darren Archibald 6'3, 212 lbs 23 yrs best junior season: 41 goals, 66 points in 61 games best ahl season: 12 goals, 22 points in 55 games Close in age, size, style of play, and from the OHL. Nolan was a 7th round pick, Archibald undrafted. Nolan adjusted a bit better to pro hockey but Archibald could just be a year behind.
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I didn't get to watch the game too closely, thoughts on how Archibald looked on his first outing?
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Describe the Canucks performance so far with a movie title
canucklehead44 replied to Armada's topic in Canucks Talk
"A New Hope" - Torts behind the bench "Rear Window" - Behind the top teams in the west but still relevant "A Separation" - the twins being split up "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" Torts is a small man -
2013-14 Prospect Points Tracker
canucklehead44 replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Good to see Grenier start the season at a torrid rate, he has shot up the depth chart from fringe AHLer to potential top line player. If he can keep a ppg pace I could see him getting called up this year at some point. He is 6'4, 200lbs, with a year of pro hockey under his belt. -
In February this is what I predicted Garrison would finish with (keep in mind he had one or two goals at the time) 7 goals 12 assists 90 shots on goal 55 missed shots 65 hits 65 blocked shots + 12 Right now he is on pace for: 8 goals 5 assists 87 shots on goal 59 missed shots 42 hits 59 blocked shots +14
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Garrison is adjusting to a new system. He has missed on 44% of his shot attempts. Last season he only missed on 32%. He also averaged 2.18 Shots per game to his 1.59 shots per game this season. If he could get his missed shots down to 35% and increase his attempts by .3 per game his goal output should look decent. Current: 2.8 shot attempts per game, 1.59 on net, 44% missed x 7.4 S% 2 goals Projected: 3.1 shot attempts per game, 2.02 on net, 36% missed x 7.4 S% 31 games remaining 4.622 goals - round up to 5 Projected 7 goals in 48 games 7 x 1.7 12 goals over an 82 goal season. Garrison's magic numbers or "KPI" for this season: 7 goals 12 assists 90 shots on goal 55 missed shots 65 hits 65 blocked shots + 12 In Florida he hit at twice the rate he is this year so I would expect his .9 pace would increase to around 1.35 (it was 1.8 in Florida). If he reaches these numbers I would say he meets his minimum standards given his past performance and contract.
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I think Schroeder will be a decent NHL player with a few productive seasons to seasons where he doesn't make the NHL. A low end second line center who will perform decent enough but will often be pushed out next in favour of bigger players. His strength and defensive ability might keep him around, on offensive ability alone he will have trouble.
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This guy is an awesome free prospect. He probably would have gone second or third round in hindsight. Putting up strong point totals, playing solid defensively, and has good size. He is keeping pace with his first round teammates.
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That is a good point, +1. And I agree with you, although Grabner, Shirokov and Schneider played their first games during the Gillis regime. But of course there is a bit of a delay. The 2004 draft was phenomenal. Two all star calibre players (Schneider & Edler), a 2nd/3rd line tweener (Hansen) and a solid 4th liner (Brown). Our first rounder was 26th overall and we had no second round pick that year. Unfortunately the 2007 draft was brutal. If Nonis drafted Perron, Smith or O'Brien (3 of the 4 players taken after White) he would have had an awesome draft record overall. A lot of our current prospect pool is long term, it will take a few years before we will really get a taste of how effective his draft selections were. Overall the progress this season is a bit discouraging but it could mean nothing. Look at Peter Andersson's progression. He went from a solid 5 points and +3 (6 points +2 in 10 games, Swe-1) to 0 points, -5 in 27 games (4 points, +4 in 30 games Swe-1) followed by a year where he was stuck in Swe-1 for the entire season. That is a significant decline. After his his successful rookie career I would have expected Anderson to be a top pairing dman in the SEL by his 3rd season. Despite this major decline he has made a successful move directly into the NHL where he has stuck around as a 7th dman (and has played solid, albeit unremarkable.
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Lol I think you still misunderstood. Look at the statistics of our prospects, and the lack of NHL talent, it is hard to say that Gillis has a good draft record since his picks haven't panned out...yet. And as I said, it is still early to judge since the majority of the players haven't had much of an opportunity to prove themselves at the pro level. Also a draft record will look bad if the development is poor. Example: Was Brule a bad pick? He does make CBJ's draft "record" look bad, but one could argue that being rushed into the NHL too early ruined his development. However, if CBJ didn't pick him I am sure he would have gone 7th or 8th overal. In terms of player development, it is sad to see three 2nd round picks: Rodin, Sweatt, and Sauve combine for 5 goals, 17 points in 55 games this season. All three of them put up much better numbers in their rookie season. If you compare the Nonis regime to the Gillis regime, Nonis already had 8 picks suit up for an NHL game (10 in total) in the same amount of time Gillis has had 2. That said, at day of draft I have loved Gillis' selections and hated Nonis'. 2007 was abysmal though, both at the time and in hindsight.
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I am happy with the pick. Samuelsson would have been awesome as well, he is having a great season. Tanner Pearson has 20 points in 32 games as an AHL rookie which is pretty solid.
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You might have misunderstood my post. I didn't say we had bad drafting, I said that so far the draft record looks terrible. I would blame it more on bad luck and poor development. A lot of our prospects seem to be declining. Sweatt, Rodin, Kassian, Labate, McNally, Price, Polasek, Connauton, Anthony, Sauve all have worse numbers this season. Prospects should improve as they get more experience. Schroeder, Corrado, and Archibald seem to be on the uptick which is nice but for their age/experience they aren't exactly dominating. Ben Hutton is also flying under the radar with a good season. Grenier and Jensen have struggled with consistency. Guys like Andersson, Friesen, Mallet aren't really doing enough in the AHL/ECHL to look like anything more than depth players. Like I said, it is still too early to to judge so I would give Gillis' drafting an I for incomplete. Overall I would give drafting a C or C+ and development a C-.
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The current regime has a horrible drafting record so far IMO but it is still VERY early to judge. Tanev and Lack are good prospects but were signings, not draft picks. Nonis was on the road to having a fantastic drafting record until 2007. I liked most of GIllis picks at the time - the problem is mostly development and bad luck. Price and McNally have NHL potential but it will be hard to gauge until they turn pro. Polasek, Connauton and Sauve have an awesome package of size, speed, skill and toughness but their development seems to be going sideways or downwards. Rodin was a gamble that could have paid off but the Wolves have veteran undersized scoring forwards with a solid AHL resume (Sterling, Gordon, Haydar and Ebbett) who take away top 6 playing time from Sweatt and Rodin.
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Les Miserables 8/10
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I really think Bertuzzi is the best comparison. Both plays are big and mean but have a certain finesse in their game that you don't see from a guy like Torres or Neal.
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Evan "Mack on many" hahaha
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The issue is the labelling of the lines. The 3rd line is both referred to as the "checking line" and the line that is 3rd in ice time. I think the poster was saying Kesler would play a checking role while given top 6 minutes. Kesler 5 on 5 is terrible offensively (on par with Lapierre and Malhotra last season, 25% worse than Raymond and Booth). I wouldn't mind seeing these lines when Kes is healthy: Sedin Sedin Burrows Hansen Kesler Lapierre Higgins Schroeder Booth Raymond Malhotra Kassian before Kesler comes back: Sedin Sedin Burrows Hansen Lapierre Raymond Higgins Schroeder Booth Weise/Pin Malhotra Kassian *** I don't like putting Kassian on the 4th line but it is hard to bump him up over the other top 9. Maybe send to the Wolves? ****
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In hindsight he is performing like a typical 4-7th round pick. Considering we got him for free that's not too shabby. A comparable player is PC Labrie. Big, physical, scoring ability in junior as an overager, undrafted. It took PC 5 years to make the nhl as a fourth liner. Archibald has higher offensive upside but isn't quite as truculent.
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Rodin - third liner Hodgson - Yes Jensen - Yes Archibald - long shot 4th liner Schroeder - Won't play more than a handful of games with the Nucks Anthony - Justin Morrison V 2.0
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Wow what a play by Climie and shot by Rodin!
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I think Archibald will be a Torres type player. "Physical 15". Not a top 6 guy.