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luckylager

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Everything posted by luckylager

  1. Exactly. Other energy developments that actually have a future worthy of long term investment.
  2. In what way? Laughable because the CEO of a Venture Capital firm seems to think Alberta Oil isn't a sound long term investment? I know I'm laughing.
  3. Let’s get honest about the outlook for the Alberta oil sands and Trans Mountain Wal van Lierop Contributed to The Globe and Mail Published 22 hours agoUpdated May 20, 2018 Wal van Lierop is president and CEO of Chrysalix Venture Capital There is growing consensus that the world is going through an energy transition. Everybody has heard politicians or CEOs of large energy companies making that statement. But then, most of them add the disclaimer: “But it won’t happen overnight.” That, of course, begs the question: Okay, but when could it happen? If we were to think of the energy transition as a baseball game, we could see the stages of its progression over the past decade. In the first inning, coal lost to gas in the competition for power generation in North America and Europe; solar and wind lit up the scoreboard with incredible cost reductions in the second inning; but in the third, shale oil and gas rallied, creating an energy boom in U.S. gas and making that country the international swing player -- supplanting OPEC in that position. Now we are entering the fourth inning, with a playing field of abundant cheap energy and midway through the ball game it looks like the players highest on the cost curve will be the ones striking out. Those players will likely include both new projects in Arctic oil and the oil sands, as their business case makes them weak in a game where cost is key. -When oil prices rise above $50, shale producers can make a profit. Theoretically, oil-sand producers can compete at that price level but the upfront capital intensity and long scale-up times put oil-sand producers in a very disadvantaged position for any new proje The costs of converting oil-sands oil to gasoline or jet fuel means there will always be about a $10 or more discount; so that discount has nothing to do with pipelines: oil-sands expansions should actually be competitive at $40 for new capital investments to make sense. This leads to considering the business case for the Kinder Morgan pipeline: Terminal and shipping infrastructure adds another negative of $2-$3 on this line because receivers on the demand side have in the past years created new facilities to quickly load and unload massive ships of a size that cannot sail below the Vancouver bridges. As a result, Alberta needs to be able to compete below $37, while in new projects, it most likely needs north of $50 to be in the money. To make things worse, not just the cost of supply has changed in the past four years; there are also significant changes on the demand side with the targeted refineries on the east coast of China recently benefiting from the improved economic relationship with Russia, while on the other hand environmental regulations have tightened. Both give Alberta oil a further disadvantage. Historically, a pipeline builder would like to see off-take agreements for more than 50 per cent of the capacity for at least 15 years, preferably 20, before giving the go-ahead. The Chinese don’t do this type of off-take contracts. At maximum you’ll get an agreement for a few years, which is then followed by another round of tough negotiations. Energy is a commodity business where cost is king. On this basis, we would have to presume that the Alberta and federal governments hadn’t seen the Kinder Morgan order book before they announced an intention to financially support the company’s pipeline, because that may show a rapidly deteriorating business case. Of course, some will argue that my numbers are incorrect, and there could be a margin of error. My point is that all stakeholders need clarity on this matter. They need a better understanding on how strong the business case for Kinder Morgan is, or if this investment could turn into a “soon to be stranded“ asset. The departure of all oil majors and many large financial institutions from the province of Alberta is also a sign that should be taken into account. But you may say: look, oil is at US$75 today — sunny times are on the horizon again. However, it should be considered that the current US$75 is not driven by normal market demand but more likely by temporary geopolitical circumstances. The Alberta, B.C. and federal governments should form an independent committee to provide the necessary detailed analysis and cost due diligence on the business case for oil-sands oil over the next decades. Let’s get honest about the real outlook for the oil sands. Let’s get some facts. The energy transition will not happen overnight, but the cold numbers may tell that the “high on the cost curve oil-sands oil” will not just strike out much sooner, but much earlier than the fans had hoped for. Are we trying to cheer on a team here that doesn’t have the strategy to win the future game? As such, we may need a Plan B for Alberta sooner, rather than later. In particular, the hard-working people in the energy industry in Alberta deserve this. It could be that they are risking their future based on the belief these are sunny times again. They may take out mortgages for new houses and have to pay for those long after the Kinder Morgan pipeline has been written off. The personal stakes are serious. Let’s coach a smart game based on the hard numbers, not environmental idealism or politics, and, in turn, give all the stakeholders some investor certainty. The people of Alberta deserve that.
  4. Had an epiphany, one of the one's when you're looking back at your perception of things and realize how incredibly wrong you were.

     

    The Golden Knights epiphany-

     

    I thought bringing in another team just watered down the league and spread the talent pool a bit thin. 

    I was wrong.

     

    Look at what the unprotected have done, could potentially do.

     

    Every team in the NHL was just a little bit hurt by the expansion draft, but only a little bit; something like losing ONE player to retirement or career ending injury (honourable mention to Dorsett).

     

    I don't like the fact Las $&!#ty Vegas is off to the SCF, but it proves me wrong in a way.. I don't mind being wrong

     

    Look how deep the Las Vegas Golden Castoffs are, look how their presence didn't really hurt any team. The leagues tweeners just made one hell of a team. I absolutely hate it. 

     

    In summary- screw you Bettman, you can kiss my a**. 

    1. Alflives

      Alflives

      I think .vegas shows how much a very hot goalie can do.  I remember Hasek taking an average Buffalo team to the Final.  Roy won the Cup with an average Montreal team in ‘93.  

      I sure hope Demko or DiPietro is the real deal:)

       

      i forgot.

      SCREW YOU Bettman!  :gocan:

  5. I hate the corsi crap. But anyways. If you think about the situations in which Hutton was paired with Guddy, I'm pretty sure Tanev and Edler were injured and those two were stuck at first pairing... Barf. Of course they get their butts kicked. That is not a first pairing. Same can be said about the Hutty Tanev pairing. We had Hutton taking first pairing duties and crapping the bed just like he did with Guddy, only with a better Dman. When he finally gets a third pairing, where he belongs, good corsi. Unless I'm missing/forgetting something, Ben Hutton is an effective third pairing D.
  6. Notice how the less time he spends around Cloutier, the better he plays? I wasn't and am still not a fan of the Clouts hiring. I don't want him anywhere near Demko. Both Marky and Nilsson started strong then pretty much flaked out by January after spending a few months having their game manipulated by a horrible goaltending coach. Both started losing the post and (for big dudes) were overplaying the shot and drifting way out of the crease. I blame Clouts. Trade Nilsson now. His current play speaks to his actual ability. We won't get jack $&!# for him at the TDL and Demko is ready to start taking Markstrom down. Seize the day! And find a new 'tending coach.
  7. My son just bombed at the tryout for his little league all star team. Poor kid is crushed.

    I remember having awful showings at try-outs and being all kinds of destroyed by it. He doesn't want to hear it though... Letting yourself down is a tough one. It's too bad he's too young for a beer.

     

    1. Show previous comments  34 more
    2. smithers joe

      smithers joe

      actually, they do have a copy of it on the internet. good luck to your son and the lessons he can learn about life.

    3. ReggieBush

      ReggieBush

      @smithers joe John Wooden, despite coaching the enemy, I can respect all that he accomplished (he paid his recruits though).

       

      The Pyramid of Success is no joke however

    4. luckylager

      luckylager

      @ReggieBush

      I just got the email, and as I expected he didn't make it.

       

      One of his teammates made it though, he's a good player, nice kid too. They pair up at practice, pal around. 

       

      Trying to be as impartial as I can-

       

      In practices and games my son has an edge in pitching and batting, but doesn't field the ball as well and isn't as fast as the boy who made the cut. He also didn't bomb the tryout.

       

      I spoke with my boy's coach after practice today, the allstar coach doesn't reach out to other coaches at this level. Tryout or bust.

       

      My son will be fine with it. He knows he bombed and doesn't expect to make the cut. He's gotten over being mad at himself and wants to show them on the field.

       

      Also, says he wants to play fall ball... That will totally make fall too &^@#ing busy for me. Hockey and Baseball. FFS I just made him pick soccer or hockey.

      Dammit

  8. Is there a filter we can apply to "proposals" and find out how many Tanev trades have been started as new threads?

    Gotta be at least 500 by now. Maybe more.

     

    Edit- scratch that. Maybe @StealthNuck can create a new sub forum called "Trade Tanev"

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. Drive-By Body Pierce

      Drive-By Body Pierce

      Who is this Tanev person you speak of?

    3. Qwags

      Qwags

      I think it would be easier to find days where there ISN'T a Tanev proposal.

    4. chon derry

      chon derry

      tanev isn't real person is he?, or is he just a player on a EA sports video game.....and whats this hockey card thing?

  9. Dude, if you included MSP, childcare and utility (not including BC Hydro or property tax) my wife and I are at about 45%... Really now
  10. All 30% of them/us, at least. I'm tired of voting for the lesser of evils. I'd prefer a gov that wants to take over all corporate interest of our national resources, for the people. Not for their people. Nestle pulling millions of hectolitres of water and we see pennies. Round those pennies up and they're a whole nickel! Woohoo! Mining, lumber, oil, it's the same damn story. They take everything without any regard for the future and our cowards in power just say "ok, but you'll need to contribute to our next election". It's disgraceful. It's also embarrasing what a bunch of sheep we are. The few who stand up to fight and truly wish for a stronger nation are marginalized and branded crazy. I'd love a national take back from the businesses of wage slavery.
  11. I did and chose to ignore it, I guess. I have absolutely zero faith this project will pay us, the working class, dividends. Our politicians don't have the balls to take what's ours. Nationalize our natural resources and I might believe we're getting anything more than bent over by this. The propaganda machine claims the majority of BC residents are in favour of the project. Convenient that type of support isn't shared by anyone who lives on the coast. The people polled are clearly the same lot of morons who voted for Neo-liberal corporate control of our province for almost two decades. The libs &^@#ed them hard and they're still too stupid to notice.
  12. That's bull$&!#, Strome. We won't suddenly attract a slew of doctors back to Canada because of an increase in tanker traffic. The government will decrease corporate tax rates and continue to put the tax burden on employees, not employers. Our gas won't suddenly get cheaper. All the suited puppets will get healthy raises yet none of the working class will see any improvement in our quality of life. This pipeline is not for "Canada". That spin is utter bull$&!#.
  13. You're not going to suddenly be more happy or get paid more because a pipeline gets rammed through. You albertans always harping away about how much money you contribute / earn / spend, yet you fail to recognize only the fat cats are getting anything "more" from this bull$&!#.
  14. Point Yet we'll pump more money into the infrastructure than we'll make from. Let alone any clean up costs from a potential spill. Our dilbit is crap, there's a very limited market for discount sand oil, especially with the US fracking the frack and undercutting our $&!#. Not to mention our port in Van can't support super tankers making us even less viable. The money would be better spent looking forward on renewables. That's the way I see it. Oh, and I hate the gov. No matter what sweater they wear
  15. Strome, I hate the whole idea of government in this capitalist society. Maybe it's just capitalism I hate above all. If our leaders had any balls, all of our natural resources, the refinement and distribution of would be nationalized. But no. They're all puppets. A troop of clowns in business suits kneeling with their mouths open waiting to be stuffed with cash, and corporate d**ks. They're not there for us.
  16. Our government doesn't represent the people, only corporate interests. They value the freedom of commerce more than any of our individual freedoms or charter rights. Scum of the earth, corporate whores. So, I'm just gonna leave this here. https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/04/24/kinder-morgan-opponents-suspected-trudeau-government-rigged-its-review-pipeline-federal?utm_medium=email&utm_source=actionkit Worth the read whether you're Strome or Toews. They don't care about either of you.
  17. Cat crap is not fertilizer. Cat turds can have worms and you don't want that around your fruit trees or veg garden. Where does your cat crap, Tre? Yeah, dog owners that don't do the doodoo duty are losers, full on. Cats are still worse though.
  18. Cats Cats that dig up and take $&!#s in my garden Neighbours Neighbours with cats that are too feeble and stupid to train their $&!#ty cats to $&!# in a litter box Litter laws I should be legally allowed to dump 3 yards of kitty litter on the front lawn of every $&!#ty cat owner on my block
  19. Yeah But both of those guys are already Canucks...
  20. And that's what kills me about it. Not better than Nobodoniki, Nowherenini, Undraftiemi, Rookstankenti? Come on Finland.
  21. Then why the snub? Rips a coach that ends up fired, and then blackballed? Nut up Finland
  22. Looking at the Fins choices for Dmen leaves me puzzled to say the least. Is Juolevi that bad, or are they really that childish? (chugs another beer)
  23. Tanking for Dahlin Super obvious
  24. GTFO (chugs a beer) What the..? (cracks another beer) Fuuuuu...
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