oldnews
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Nonsense once again. There was a lot of the usual peanut gallery armchair complaining about signing Malhotra - to a $7.5 million deal over 3 years in 2010 - from the usual suspects in this market at the time. And ironically, Malhotra was here when they then signed Beagle - I'm sure it's just a coincidence that a year after Malhotra joined this team as an assistant coach they went out and got Beagle. And that's a cool one-liner about Malhotra's utility and 'impacts'....they've played virtually identical roles and had very similar 'impacts'/outcomes.
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Again - one-liner superstar. To your credit at least you don't attempt to speak for / enlist all the hockey authorities in the world - you simply don't like Beagle. Unlike the OP, whose only play is to pretend to speak for all the 'experts' (but can't name one).
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LOL. The patented laughable appeal to authority buried in a soliloquy/narrative. chirp chirp. . the 'analytics' are delicious.
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laughable list of comparables. Nick Cousins hasn't played center since 18/19 - and was a 46.7% faceoff guy. 60% ozone starts in Vegas last year - over 50% 7 of 8 career NHL seasons....has Killed exactly 0:00 of penalties last year, and 0:02 seconds this year. no doubt "off the top of your head"...as in speaking through your hat. Tomas Nosek has never played hard minutes - over 50% ozone starts for his entire career at least he's a secondary penalty killer. but again, thanks for coming out. Barclay Goodrow - 48.6% career ozone starts, 49.2% faceoff guy last year, 40.4% this year.... Dominik Simon is a winger - who can't make the Lames lineup - and again 56% ozone starts for his career - and again, has never killed an NHL penatly lol. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/flames-dominik-simon-often-healthy-scratch/ Nordstrom, again, is a winger - the most faceoffs he's ever taken was when he went 48-77 for 38.4%.... Engvall is a winger (again) - and a guy getting 60% ozone starts, while killing a heavy 25 seconds of penalties a game. Yet another great comparable. Spezza and Thornton - you have got to be kidding. Career 55.3% ozone starts - Spezza has never been anything resembling a shutdown forward - and likewise with Thornton - who is getting 70.6% ozone starts in Toronto, doesn't kill penalties, and has always been a top 6/career 52.6% ozone starts player. Tyler Motte - it should go without saying - is Beagle's wing man. 5 years = 128 faceoffs for 34.4%. That list only evidences that you don't know what you're talking about. You are literally 1 for 10. The fact that @Provost believes that is alien material only underlines the noob-goggles. You guys carry on building your teams off the 'tops of your heads'...."objective reality" be damned! Forget Manny Malhotra - he can be replaced with literally anyone, right! smh.
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(Rumour) Virtanen on the trade block
oldnews replied to Wayne Glensky's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
wat? post a source for this 'rumour'. -
one liner superstar. short twitter story. ironic username is ironic. AV would never utter such noob speak. no one is 'glorifying' anyone - it's called objective outcomes, context, and a fair shake as opposed to....what you post. "so and so is a bum"....how incisive.
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Beagle last season 23% ozone starts 59.1% in the faceoff circle 2.8 on ice goals against per 60 was 3rd lowest among forwards (Sutter and Virtanen were lower). In the playoffs he was even better (and a +2 in that context). 3:02 penalty killing/game lead all forwards. 69 hits was 5th among forwards. 42 blocks was 2nd among forwards. On ice save% was .927 = 2nd to Sutter.
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It's for the people that understand the game - or have some interest in understanding the game. Highlight reel fanboys never understand the value of players like this and probably never will - because they willfully blind themselves to defend their egos, weak takes, and are too busy fanning the 'stars' and obsessing over ignorantly received whipping boys to recognize the role players, the team game. Guys like Beagle who eat extremely high levels of dzone starts (and who are consistently at the bottom of the team in goals against 5 on 5 per 60 - ie the team's best defensive forwards), who generate positive territory, are among the best faceoff guys in the league, and who are the first guys on the ice for a penalty kill... people who believe the team is "significantly better" without them - have a noob's eye view, plain and simple. Provost is never able to respond to the actual outcomes, so he runs on in predictable one-trick, one-note, substance-free soliloquys for misdirection. 'Er, I've been attacked, ad hominemz' by too much objectivity / too many actual statistics!'
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Jay Beagle's objective reality. 24.1% ozone starts 44.6% corsi 56.4% in the faceoff circle 1 goal, 5 points, even 0 (outstanding in the exclusive hard minutes he plays). 3.0 on ice goals for, 2.7 against per 60 at even strength - outstanding goal metrics in the hardest minutes on the team, to go with excellent 'possession' metrics. 9 takeaways, 3 giveaways 28 hits. 3:35 /game on the penalty kill leads all forwards. Yeah - the team would look "significantly better" without Jay Beagle (patented noob-speak).
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Value of Dougie Hamilton (Discussion/Proposal)
oldnews replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
one-liners. -
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Why is Höglander so good? And can he win some hardware?
oldnews replied to ImConfused's topic in Canucks Talk
5th best 'odds' at present is not bad considering he's actually been far more impressive than his production to date suggests. -
Golden bump. Well played.
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Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!!!
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You mean regress back to the 15 goals in 70 games that he had two seasons ago, as opposed to the 18 goals in 69 games last season. The irony is that those two samples of 70 and 69 games - are far larger sample sizes than the tiny 15 game sample thus far this season - that you are obsesssing over about constantly. The ironing is delicious. Virtanen, Virtanen, Virtanen - should have traded Virtanen. 'Look - I was right about Virtanen!' Is he no longer going to regress back to the mean? Of 15 to 18 goals per 70/69 games? Or were the 10 goals in 75 games as a 21 yr old, or the 7 in 55 as a 19 yr old more statistically relevent? 50 goals in 279 games is the whole sample - in other words he has averaged 15 goals per 82 games from age 19 to 23 in his early NHL career. Blow some smoke and misdirection about small samples all you want - but you are the one that attempts to finesse the point that you are relying on a small sample outlier this season - as if that's the 'real Virtanen' - to qualify a bizarre denial of his actual large sample outcomes. Additional irony - as you're obsessing over Virtanen - a marginal, unimportant player in your opinion that ought to be dumped for value before everyone else realizes how bad his "mean" is - the reality is that Elias Pettersson has a mere 4 more goals than Virtanen. and only 1 more even strength goal than Virtanen. Pettersson is getting 4:30 of powerplay ice time/game. EP is also getting 77.5% ozone starts and playing over 18 minutes / game.(49.9% corsi). Pettersson has played 5 more games than Virtanen - and has one more even strength goal... Quick - trade Pettersson before he returns to mean! Virtanen is getting 41.2% ozone starts, and under 12 minutes/ game. (44.8% corsi) Of course you protest about large samples, small samples - any sample in fact - but never post the statistics you rely upon yourself (ie your absurd claim that Virtanen "cost the team 30 goals" last season - straight out of your posterior metric). The return to mean argument regarding Virtanen is a complete fail - that is unless people are supposed to consider 15 goals in bottom six minutes to be disposable. horrible outcomes. As you blind yourself to a bottom six, you're also blind about the top 6 = if you weren't you wouldn't be so obsessed with peripheral problems. Miller has 3 more goals than Virtanen - 2 more even strength goals than Virtanen - in a couple more games than Virtanen, playing 19:50, getting 66.9% ozone starts and 4:22/game on the powerplay. But obsess over Virtanen - because addressing the fact that the top line is not producing as needed - isn't as pop smarm as dwelling on your personal whipping boy. Pointing out that top 6 forwards or Hughes are underperforming - isn't a fanboy passtime. I could point out that Virtanen has a team low 1.5 on ice goals against per 60 at es, that he was second lowest last season over a 69 game sample, that he was 3rd lowest the previous season over a 70 game sample - but you will blow smoke about small samples as opposed to look at the objective outcomes. He has a team best .953 on ice save percentage this season, 3rd best behind Sutter and Beagle last season (.925) and 2nd best among forwards (.924) two seasons ago over a 70 game sample. "Small sample", 'cherry pick', yada yada - yet nothing but smoke and mirrors - nothing of substance in response. He was 3rd on the team in takeaways last season with 37 over 69 game sample. He lead the team two years ago with 46 in a 70 game sample. You don't have much more sample than multiple years with young players - of consistent outcomes. Second on the team in hits two years ago with 154 in 70 games, 4th last year with 102 in 69....all in limited bottom six minutes. Blip, blip. Anyway - you go ahead and flare up some narrative about the player - but the irony is your inability to look at the statistics (you purport to be such an expert in 'analyzing').
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If you're going to have a brutal 15 game stretch in a season, you may as well have it right out of the gate. First - with such a young group, a short camp/preseason, and ridiculous schedule right out of the gate - it should not have been expected that this team would fare as well immediately as more veteran teams that need the preparation less (and arguably, the rest). So if it lights a fire under this group to set their bar higher - high enough to climb back in against tightening odds - so be it. in The Canucks are in a position now where they need to go on a relative tear. Let's see if they can. I'm not betting against them - they have outplayed their opponents the last handful of games, and they arguably have room for a significant amount of improvement/return to mean from some of their key players. What really matters - in any event - if you do make the playoffs - is the type of hockey you are playing down the stretch as you enter them . If you're not winning at the kind of clip that gets a team back into a race from a deficit like this - then you're probably not going to advance far in the playoffs regardless. How far out was the team this team just knocked off in the playoffs, when St Louis went from worst to first in the second half of two seasons ago, when they won their Cup? After 37 games (45% of the season) the Blues were in last place in the NHL = 31st of 31 teams. But, but that's an outlier. There are outliers every year - with multiples more factors involved in team performance (vs individual outcomes'/expectations based on individual samples). Are the Canucks the veteran team St Louis was? No. But they are with a few important exceptions the team that knocked off that SCC months ago (and the newcomers are quality players). They really need to ignore the premature pressure in the market and focus on what they can control.
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'Why is nobody taking Nils Hoglander?' I can imagine how Benning and the scouting team must have felt when Hoglander was there at 40... Still to early, but again, what a great draft that could turn out to be for the Canucks. Podkolzin, obviously, has looked great, particularly at the World Juniors (really hope that injury isn't as bad as it looked). But even the two 7th round picks in that draft look very good - Aidan McDonough has been a hair under a ppg player at Northeastern, and Arvid Costmar was one of the more fun two way players to watch at the WJC.
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Exactly. When you 'replace' veterans with rookies, it tends to take some time to get up to speed. Marky out, Demko in. Tanev out, Juolevi in (although OJ does not replace Tanev's role) Toffoli out, Hoglander in. Has the team gotten better? Not in the first month, but longer term? It's a 'risk' you have to take as you bank on the futures of your core who are nowhere near their primes yet (one Horvat aside, who is approaching his). It may take some development time, but few people around here would prefer the reverse - Demko dealt, Juolevi dumped as if a bust by half the people on these boards, and endless crying about Toffoli while there's another Calder quality young player in his vacated position (which he scarcely held). As I've said elsewhere, I'd probably increase the risk of a step back to the degree of dealing a veteran winger (Roussel, Pearson) in order to bank/do away with some bonus cap up front this season - but beyond that - let the chips fall. And I think it's safe to say that the team we saw struggle early this season is not necessarily as representative as the team we've seen on bookends of that cold, covid, compressed start to the season....So I am a long way from writing this team off, even in the short run - but I'm also on board with playing the long game here.
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retread thread #redundant thread is redundant.
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Why is Höglander so good? And can he win some hardware?
oldnews replied to ImConfused's topic in Canucks Talk
Calders tend to be scoring races unfortunately - as do Norris' these days - but if Horvat and Pearson can pick it up I see no reason why Hoglander doesn't have a shot at the Calder - and regardless I have a hard time thinking of a rookie I would rather have on my team - that shows so many indicators of tracking as a complete player. Trophies or not - this is the rookie you want in your lineup.- 79 replies
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Meh. People pull this stuff out every season - and it's overcooked. There are always teams that buck this stuff - every single season. It's premature - as always. Teams need to go on a run, period. They need to sustain .500+ hockey, and go on a stretch where they win a half dozen straight, or 8 or 10 or w.h.y. It happens repeatedly - and render the 'models' relatively moot. Can this team do that? Who knows? But nothing more meaningless than attempts to write them off. If anything - the idea that this special season makes it more difficult - doesn't necessarily hold water when you have as many head to head games with specifically the teams you need to catch - teams probably hold their own fates in their hands moreso than ever. Regardless - for me the thing I want to see is them playing the kind of hockey they have the past 5 games vs Toronto and Calgary (which we saw spotty indications of earlier vs Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton...) These kinds of overcooked defeatism/pseudo-'realism' are pointless for the most part imo. Keep working smart and hard and you never know - the team has the talent imo to climb back into it - and as importantly they have the work ethic, the 'foundation' to their game - and would seem to have the character/fight necessary as well - particularly once they've been able to 'catch their breath'. Having played 20 games already is certainly a disadvantage, particularly when they struggled in half of them - but it also means that their remaining grind will not be as compact as many other teams. So forget the nonsense crystal balls and focus on the next game, one at a time, and the possibility remains.