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I agree - even a Weber that can't really unload that one-timer - and has difficulty even getting enough pepper on his clears - is still a force. Just that presence in front of Price, that intimidation to enter the hard areas with him - his effect against entries, the rush - his intelligence - makes him one of the best players on the ice even while playing injured. Matthews - 2 even strength pts in 6 games - 59.1% ozone starts - just not good enough - but I think he does deserve credit for his improved play in his own zone in particular (and he does have a very impressive 13 takeaways this series. Is that enough to appease a fanbase that hasn't had a first round victory in eons? - I doubt it (and that post-game-6 interview - was cringeworthy. Anything can happen - but the psychological gymnastics the Leafs are steeped in - Keefe's line about being "excited" for the team etc - sounds weak rationalization that may be better kept in the locker room as opposed to 'official' messaging (as the latter it's way to 'soft' an answer to 0-7 in elimination opportunities).
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I picked them in 7 not out of spite - but because I think they are a better playoff build than the Leafs. Built from the net out - Price, Weber, Petry, Chiarot, Edmundson... I'll take that over the Leafs' top 4 - even if I like Campbell (he's played very well) - and think the Leafs have an improved second pairing... Of course - that depends on the health of that Habs 'battery' - and Weber has looked like he's playing injured....but Price has been Price.... Edmundson - hasn't quite been the player he was in St Louis (not gazing his giveaway here, throughout the series he's just not looked as good as I 'expected' him to be). But regardless, in spite of the Leafs' advantage at center ice - I think the Habs are generally the better skating team, the team that plays more of an aggressive playoff style of hockey - with guys like Price, Weber and Petry to anchor that. 'Alternative' builds can win - but I think they do so with far less frequency. The Leafs are improved in some areas - notably Matthews plays a far better two way game post Malhotra arrival (I think he's probably taking too much heat and blame by people micro-gazing his production alone....(that from someone that's really not a fan...) They also no longer have a Gardiner in their top 4 - but still have a question mark on their 3rd pairing (Sandin/Dermott) - and I have to question their build overall. When guys like Kerfoot, Campbell, Mikheyev are probably your best rlelative playoff performers (aside from a Nylander or stealth Matthews) - you're probably not going to win many series. Bottom line for me - when the Habs skate and hit - they dictate the tempo of the series - and they have the 'foundation'/backbone to anchor that style of attacking game.
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Hard pass. There's nothing about his game that makes him the right fit here. First - let's look at his upside - which is misleading imo. 35 pts this year - seems decent at first glance. However - he had 7 even strength goals, 8 assists - 15 es pts is quite poor. That's with 59.2% offensive zone starts (4th highest on the Coil), with nearly 15 es minutes/game... Just under 50% of that even strength ice time came while playing with McMe1st. His secondary/next most frequent linemates were guys like Puljujaarvi, Draisaitl, Yamamoto... Horrible 5on5 production. 20 of his points came on the powerplay - actually had a hair more powerplay ice time/game than McMe1st - a whopping 4:12/game for RNH - on the league's most productive powerplay. In other words - his production was highly inflated. Poor 5on5 goal metrics as well. More warning signs.... 5 Oilers took more faceoffs than RNH - including Khaira, Haas, and Turris - all of whom played considerably fewer games and minutes than N-H... 160 draws - N-H was 45.6%.... He was effectively a winger / secondary center - and one who brings little grit / next to no 'heaviness' to his game (26 hits, 29 blocks in 52 games). Yeah - he was one of their secondary penalty killers (Archibald and Khaira killed more penalties than RNH this year...) But that's just not enough - to go with 'responsible' defensively - to make him an attractive target. So many better targets/fits out there, some of them also expiring - who won't cost what RNH would probably believe he's worth. Likeable person - decent player - but no thank you. To underline the point: Sutter had 10 es pts in 520 es minutes = 1.2 pts per 60 minutes. RNH has 15 es pts in 764 es minutes = 1.2 pts per 60minutes. Needless to say - Sutter played much harder 5on5 minutes - with much less productive linemates.... Does this team need a left handed powerplay winger? A tweener and secondary penalty killer? No, it doesn't - and certainly not at anywhere near what his cap hit will likely wind up to be. Sutter Jenner Haula, Richardson, Thompson... Nick Paul... These are the kind of targets we 'should' look at. Of course, we'd all love a Sean Couturier - but RNH aint that. Save the cap space. Get a true, dedicated shutdown center (certainly if Beagle won't be healthy). Retain the secondary scoring roles for our own emerging prospects - tilt the ice for them - add guys to our bottom six that handle hard minutes on a regular basis, win faceoffs, bring more 'grit' - provide 'foundation'. If we're also looking for a legitimate future two way center, RNH isn't the guy.
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I'm not going to predict the outcome (aside from saying I took the Habs in 7 lol...) But I do disagree with the whole 'we're cursed' line coming out of Leafs homers. The Leafs got their puck luck. Lack of 'puck luck' is not their problem imo. They were dead in the water - got a giveaway and a gift deflection to keep their unearned dream alive in game 6. In fact, without puck luck last night - it's a hands-down regulation loss - the final score was actually flattering. They're not 'cursed'. Hell - they even get the decided game management advantage in this series - usually do. What they lack imo - is within their control - they simply don't step up - and PERFORM - when it matters.... (a generalization of course - a few guys, like Mikheyev, or Kerfoot - or Campbell - some of their best performers, have held their own, in this series....but overall, there's little that is 'clutch' - or playoff - about that team/build. It's all Leafs - all on the Leafs themselves. And further - it's on their #genius GM. If they need a landslide of luck - or game management - to finally win a series.....there would seem to be something 'underlying' that is lacking.
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Minnesota should be easy to like - they're Minnesota - but they never have been. Used to have that rivalry - where they were suffocating - that Lemaire hockey - almost as boring as the matchups with the Coyotes in the Tippett era... Willie Mitchell - was one of the few D in the league that could handle Bertuzzi... And then the Wild became the definition of 'middling' and 'mediocre' - a team that hung around but never went anywhere, routine early exits in the playoffs - never really improved - failed to effectively draft and develop...coasting on the albatrosses to Suter and Parise...One of the league's most obnoxious ownership groups - among the hardliners in the lockout, right after having dished out those Suter and Parise contracts....riding the contradiction. But Guerin seems to have had a real impact - changed the 'culture'...didn't expect them to be this competitive this year...
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if it's true that Clark is back - he's really letting down banner and smarm nations - after they had so much faith in him.
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Scott Mayfield would be another guy on my list (right after Foote - some of the higher end targets don't strike me as particularly realistic, but maybe if we're "aggresive" enough lol) Mayfield is extremely affordable (cap wise) - and the NYI like other relatively deeper teams, have decisions to make.
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I think the team's approach is more hybrid than that though - often situational - and dependent upon who is in the lineup. Horvat already plays a measure of 'defensive center' / matchup at 5o5, against opposition top 6. When they're without Sutter, Beagle - he leans further towards shutdown/matchup and can be 'expected' to provide less secondary scoring. When the team's healthy though - he still plays some 'matchup' - but his minutes can be more 'dual' - with less 'hard minutes' - and in the end, while he plays a 5on5 matchup role a lot of the time, he's still not a penalty killer (even Miller steps into that role more frequently than Horvat when the team is not healthy...) - still not a 'dedicated defensive' center - and he's heavily supported by a pair of more dedicated shutdown centers. Choosing to opt for another offensive center, instead - impacts how much the team is able to tilt the ice for Pettersson/Boeser - (and they're not nearly the only youth in the lineup). It's possible they're nearing being ready for that, but I'd prefer a two way center at this point - one that can more definitely handle the harder side of the minutes. I think we're likely to see at least one center added to play the kind of minutes that Sutter did, and possibly another depending on Beagle's health. Pipe dream would be to acquire a player like Couturier - who gives us what we both want - quite the ask - but ideally in the longer run they might find that player.
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Jenner Sutter Bones./Haula/Richardson/Thompson Nick Paul. Trenin some of the 'bottom six' guys I'd be interested in.
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call it what you want - 2/3C semantics Horvat was second among all forwards in ice time. He won 648 faceoffs - 2nd on the team was 279. He's the "2C" on this team - and that's extremely unlikely to change. If people want a more secondary scoring oriented 3rd line - that may become increasingly more possible/likely -as the youth develop and the team 'shelters' or tilts the ice less for them. But Horvat a "3C" I think would misrepresent his role - how weighted his role is. It sounds like the idea is the he 'should' play a more exclusively defensive "3C" type roll. But perhaps a good analogy here - is Kesler. He may be a prototypical '3C' type - but he was undoubtedly the 2C.