got 2 players in first round.
really - drafting is a complete crap shoot. you've got entire teams of experienced hockey people selecting what they think are the best players available. sometimes they miss a player and you get detroit-gems from the late rounds. sometimes they are dead-on. but it is a total crap shoot, you get lucky. period.
it's kind of like playing the stock market: you would do better to go with the index. don't bother thinking you know anything, cause you are just deceiving yourself. you know jack. nobody knows anything but jack. take your picks with the index and you'd probably be right the same or better % of the time. detroit got a good string of luck, but it has run out lately it seems?
btw, that is why I don't like the canucks gms consistently thinking they know which kid they want, etc etc, even picking them above where they are on the index. and then selling one who "they" have higher up as falling to them, etc. for moneyball players they don't agree with central scouting very much but maybe that is good, time will tell if they got lucky.
so we have 2 picks in first round this year, 4 picks in the last 3 years. got a chance each will work out, might be a star in there, might now. do the percentages, that will tell you more than anything else.
but imho, trading a star goalie for a player who is slated to be a mid first-rounder... is not well thought out. desperation. so this horvat kid has way too many expectations on him, and if the team doesn't do what's right and develop him slowly, it is going to end poorly. if they care about what the media thinks - and evidence says they do - this kid is in for a roller coaster of a ride, hopefully he is in one piece a few years from now playing well in the bigs.