First rounders are VASTLY overrated on these boards, especially picks from 15-32. The chances of picking a top 6 forward/4 dmen between that range is less than 20%.
If you take a look at draft prospects between the year 2004-2018 who became impactful players; you can find that there isn’t very many.
2004: Schneider (26), Green (29). - Although, I would argue that these two were fringe superstars. Had a few good seasons, but kind of fell off their stardom near the end.
2005: Rask (21), Oshie (24)
2006: Giroux (22)
2007: Pacioretty (22)
2008: Karlsson (15), Eberle (22), Carlson (27) - Eberle been playing top 6 minutes throughout his career, but I wouldn’t consider him an impactful player for his club.
2009: None
2010: Tarasenko (16), Kuznetsov (26)
2011: J.T Miller (15)
2012: Wilson (16), Teravainen (18)
2013: Theodore (26)
2014: Larkin (15), Pastrnek (25)
2015: Barzal (16), Connor (17), Chabot (18), Boeser (23), Konecny (24) - Boeser and Konecny are in the same boat as Eberle. Wouldn’t consider them impactful players, but plays in a top 6 role.
2016: Chychrun (16)
2017: Norris (17)
2018: Smith (17)
Since 2004, there’s only been one draft (2015) that produced more than three players, who became serviceable top 6/top 4 players for their clubs.