33% of the vote could well win the election, as long as those 33% are placed properly in the ridings. A flaw of our voting syste/government model.
Unfortunately Trudeau has, to this point, reneged on his voter reform promise. Major strike against his party, could and probably should hurt their re-election campaign.
But then the Conservatives pick Scheer as leader so Trudeau's elctoral reform mistake will most likely not be the mistake that loses them power.