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Everything posted by Makaramel MacKhiato
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Jim the Scout, not the Asset Manager
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to Makaramel MacKhiato's topic in Canucks Talk
Why re-sign Pearson? He's a replaceable player who's reportedly was going to net a larger return then Hall. What's the reason that Sutter, Vrbata, and Edler couldn't be moved? Because they got signed to these NMC. That's part of asset management. -
Jim the Scout, not the Asset Manager
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to Makaramel MacKhiato's topic in Canucks Talk
Why wouldn't we trade Markstrom or Tanev? We didn't know we were going on a playoff run. Imagine what we could've fetched for Markstrom at that time. Hell, we probably could've traded his rights for picks after the season to give a team like Calgary the opportunity to talk to him and extend him before anyone else. We pretty much played half of Tanev's career without him (injuries) we could've traded him to a cup-contender for some picks as well. Then all these draft picks that people are mentioning could have a few more names to get excited about. -
Jim the Scout, not the Asset Manager
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to Makaramel MacKhiato's topic in Canucks Talk
I agree with this completely. I hate to talk about Tanev and Markstrom again... but at that time, we needed to assess the team. Jim KNEW that he could only keep one of Markstrom or Demko. Letting one of those elite level goalies walk for nothing is crippling. He should have figured out the one he wanted and traded the other for a return. That's part of asset management. He also should've figured out that he wouldn't be able to afford Tanev (by again... discussing before the trade deadline) and tried to get a return for him. I was shocked when I realized Benning hasn't traded for a top 90 pick in 5 years. No doubt, he has picked incredible players for our team... why not trade for more picks to try to capitalize on his strengths?! -
Jim the Scout, not the Asset Manager
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to Makaramel MacKhiato's topic in Canucks Talk
2nd round picks is where you can find the best players in the drafts... It's where you can find the Kucherovs, the Webers, the O'reillys, the Ahos, the Debrincats, and the Josis. Sure they may not turn out to be anything... but they can also turn out to be the picks that win you the cup. That's a good risk when trading a Pearson. -
Canucks playoff odds... I looked them up
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to grouse747's topic in Canucks Talk
Should've trade Pearson for picks. Shouldn't have traded our picks for Toffoli. Needed Benning to recognize the place we are in as a team right now like everyone else sees it. -
An article by Andrew Harris from CanuckArmy. I couldn't help but agree 100% with what he has said. I long believed in Benning and was hoping he learned from his mistakes, but the lack of selling (yet again) at the deadline tells us differently. I didn't realize that we haven't acquired a top 90 pick for 5 years (amazing as Benning is known for his draft prowess), but we've traded a lot of these picks (amazing again, as we haven't been a playoff team). https://canucksarmy.com/2021/04/17/jim-scout-jim-asset-manager-canucks-price/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2xl5kYij6P2myKhe_lHylJHfzdIcQm8tgS0KL56OQhYRMw1pNOFuT05Co From the onset, an NHL general manager is given a set of resources to work with that includes some combination of cap space, draft picks, and inherited prospects and roster players. A GM’s goal is to maximize the value of those assets within the constraints set forth by the CBA. From a high level, we call this “asset management”. We’re going to modify a Warren Buffett quote here. The problem is that NHL GMs tend to come from backgrounds of scouting, playing, coaching, or sometimes, institutional politics. Once at the top, GMs from these backgrounds find themselves ill-equipped to handle their new asset managing responsibilities. A skill set like scouting, which equips a GM to say “player x is better than player y” isn’t as useful in the new asset management job. GMs are often left with holes in their understanding of foundational concepts such as scarcity, opportunity cost, and behavioural economics. We’ve seen this play out time and time again with the Canucks’ front office. Jim the scout says “Tyler Myers has all the attributes we’re looking for. He’s big, strong, and can add an offensive component to our defence. We should sign him.” There is no Jim the asset manager that says, “Hang on, what’s the cost of acquiring Myers? Is this the best use of our cap space relative to alternatives? Why are we willing to acquire him at a price that’s chased all of the other bidders from the table?” A mistake like Tyler Myers is plain and laid bare for us to see, but Jim Benning’s errors of omission (things he didn’t do) are almost invisible. We can’t see the forgone draft picks, the roster players retained, or the prospects not acquired that have likely been an overhang through his regime. These costs are very real, and form the bedrock of the key concept missing from Benning’s mental toolkit: opportunity cost. It’s economics 101 — an opportunity cost is an opportunity lost. For example, the cost of signing Tanner Pearson was not only $3.25 million in cap space, but also the second-round pick Pearson could have fetched at the deadline. Jim the scout sees a leader with a host of offensive tools (we’ll ignore that Pearson is near replacement-level), while Jim the asset manager sees a skating second-round pick. It’s worse when thought of this way: Benning was a de facto deadline buyer by forgoing the draft pick he could have acquired for Pearson. This is the problem with Jim Benning. He chases players his intuition deems “good” (intuition that is deserving of significant skepticism — see Sham Sharron or Jay Beagle) without giving pause to ask how it fits the bigger picture. Of course, there’s always a price to pay, and when Benning has to think about that price, he does one of two things 1) he just bids higher than the market or 2) he relies heavily on his own intuitive definition of a “fair price”. A key responsibility of an asset manager is to consider how asset values diminish over time, something amateur scouting departments don’t have to do. In an appearance on Sportsnet 650, Benning said that contending teams tend to have players primarily between the ages of 24-34 (a hilarious answer – as Sam from the Broadscast pointed out on Twitter, the majority of all NHL players are between 24-34). Benning was going the intuition route, and nobody’s (except Petbugs’) intuition can possibly be developed to incorporate the ageing trends of the thousands of players in the NHL. A model is clearly better here, and what does the model say? The result of this disjointed process is arguably the least efficient team of the salary cap era. It’s a team that’s lost asset value in Tanner Pearson, Dan Hamhuis, Troy Stecher, Chris Tanev, Ryan Miller, Shawn Matthias, and Frank Corrado. It’s a team that’s avoided alternative uses of cap space, and hasn’t traded for a draft pick in the top 90 since 2016. That’s the problem with Jim Benning’s tenure as Canucks GM. We’ve got Jim the scout, not Jim the asset manager, and he doesn’t know about opportunity cost.
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[Discussion] Value of UFA Blake Coleman?
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
6M for 6 years sounds right -
[Speculation] Sutter and Benn on the market
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to hockeyking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I'm sure his friends aren't upset, you know the business you're getting into. You can't become a hockey player and not be aware that you could be moved at the trade deadline. I'm sure the "friends" (Petey and Hughes) you're talking about are already upset that guys like Eriksson are sitting and making more money than them. I'm sure they're actually more excited after the Pearson contract because it probably guaranteed them a million or two more than before. -
[Speculation] Sutter and Benn on the market
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to hockeyking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Business is business. Everyone has been affected by covid and isn't making millions of dollars. Trade these guys. -
4 teams in 2 years for this guy. I've watched some Sabres games and he looked SO disinterested. Kind've fair for a guy that's almost 30, a former 1st overall pick, and has only played 14 playoff games. What Hall really needs is to join a cup competitor and win some games, he's been losing his entire career. I think that would give him the spark to get back to his former self and the dominating player he used to be (like his year Hart year with NJD). Stop taking individual glory and money and just go to a winning atmosphere Hally. Should've picked Colorado when you had the chance!
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I haven't seen a draft where there isn't a clear #1 in awhile. Not to mention that the #1's on some peoples list is the #8 in others. If there is ever a draft where scouting is important to get a steal, this is it. Who knows, the player who have Canucks in at #1 could still be there by pick #6 or 7. Maybe a lot of trades this draft too!
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[Signing] Panthers sign Nikita Gusev
Makaramel MacKhiato replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Should be a good fit -
Here's what we'll hear from Benning: - "I think we will be able to make better deals at the draft" And he will not make any trades at the draft. When questioned he will say: - "The value wasn't there, I think we will find trade partners in the offseason when the dust settles" And he will not make any trades in the offseason. When questioned he will say: - "I think we will make trades at the trade deadline. That's when we will be able to acquire picks and young players" And he will not make any trades at the trade deadline, but re-sign his tradable players to bad contracts. And the cycle will continue as it has for 6 years.
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Getting old