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Everything posted by baumerman77
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I meant he is the better pick based on the information available at the time of the draft. He may not necessarily the better player.
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More important is even strength stats. Despite Ehlers playing roughly 8:20 minutes more per night Virtanen had 3 more even strength goals and only 8 less even strength assists. Oh yeah and Virtanen is 6 months younger and was playing half the season with a bad shoulder. Enough of these comparisons to Ehlers. Virtanen was the better pick.
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Virtanen compares to Ovechikn for me (not talent but style). Both are fast and hard hitting. Both have questionable defense (at least Virtanen has time to improve). Both are shoot first, shoot second, pass third guys. I would love to see Virtanen play with the Sedins in a few years.
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Out of: Jensen, Gaunce, Horvat, Shinkaruk, McCann, Virtanen and Fox I would be extremely happy if two of them turned into top 6 forwards. I would think the odds are better of that not happening than it happening.
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Making 3 million in the NHL is the equivalent to making 1.65 million in the KHL.
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We would have to sign him to an entry level contract with would be under 1 million per year. I am not exactly sure what your point about his KHL contract is but if he is making 1.3 million in the KHL it is tax free. Essentially the difference would by having 1.3 million (KHL) vs 565,000 (NHL).
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I don't really know. Scouting CHL team prospects is just a little over my head. Interesting notion though, I would love to see Virtanen get traded to a contender. That being said, I am fairly certain that Jordan Subban will be leaving the Bulls this year to go to a contender.
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Even if Virtanen was ready by rookie camp (early September) I very seriously doubt he has a shot at making the team. And personally I think he needs minimum one more year in junior, I would prefer him to stay there for two years though. Shinkaruk needs a full year in the AHL. I wouldn't even call him up for a single game unless we had 4 injured left wingers.
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I think it would be realistic to expect Virtanen to get 45+ goals and 35+ assists for 80+ points next year. Of course I hope he does it in 5-7 less games because he is on the WJC team. The other thing to keep in mind is that Calgary Hitmen are likely going to be a worse team next year. They are going to lose their: second best scorer Brassart, fourth leading scorer Padakin, fifth leading scorer (and top scoring Dman) Helgesen, sixth leading scorer (and second scoring Dman) Roach, seventh leading scorer Tambellini, eighth leading scorer (and third scoring Dman) Rissling, Also their number 1 goalie will be leaving for the AHL too. Out of their top 8 scorers they are only going to keep: Chase (1st) and Virtanen (3rd)
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Sorry I didn't want to come off sounding too critical. Good work though. I don't know if you have the data but I would be really interested in seeing a comparison of even strength goals across those individuals.
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So you took players best years not necessarily their draft years? Why not add players below Virtanen to give more perspective rather than a bunch above him. Also you mixed up Tavares years. 05/06 he was 15. 06/07 he was 16. As a side note, everyone is so impressed by Connor McDavid's 16 year old season but Tavares 72 goal 16 year old season makes it seem average.
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I really like Hockey's Future ranking system. It has a more realistic projection. I've seen people here who think the top 9 in the Canucks future will contain: Horvat, Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Jensen, Virtanen, McCann, Casssels and Fox. The odds of that happening are thousands to one.
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Virtanen needs to raise his skill level? He scored 30 even strength goals that placed him 8th in the CHL (all ages). It seems to me people think there are no qualitative differences in "points". They look at a guy like Ehlers and say he is more skilled than Virtanen because he has more points. Well there is a qualitative difference in points. Sure one secondary power play assist is worth 1 point and one even strength goal is also worth 1 point. But to me the latter is more difficult to attain and requires more "skill".
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You've really bought into Linden Vey eh?
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Well lets hope Hutton doesn't do that well in NCAA or else he will go to the highest bidder.
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I would prefer him to play in the KHL for a couple years (and not try to get out of his contract). There is more of an emphasis on skating there because of the big ice. He will not only learn to skate better but also to be better positionally. And then come over play a year in the AHL to get accustomed to NA playing style and then make the jump to the NHL at age 23.
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I'm not saying it is a foregone conclusion that he will stay, just that it is a real possibility. And you are correct if he was Czech, Swiss or Slovakian I do not think the risk would be as high because there is a qualitative difference between the nationalities: 1) Slovakia, Switzerland, Czech Republic (along with other European countries) promote English in their education systems. Individuals from those countries would not only already be more advanced in English they would be a greater abundance of resources to advance their English. 2) Those countries do not have an elite level hockey league like Russia. 3) Geographical and cultural differences. The aforementioned countries are culturally much more similar to NA than Russian, in particular where Nikita was born and plays in the non-west portion of Russia. There is also a catch-22 with Tryamkin. The better he plays over the next two years in the KHL the more likely he will actually be able to play -skillwise- in the NHL, but this good performance also increases the likelihood he will stay in the KHL. This being because the KHL does not want to lose good prospects to the NHL (they have a history of overpaying among other incentives to keep players in the KHL or bringing them back) espicially guys as easily identifiable as Tryamkin.
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Not just financial costs which would likely be a smaller paycheck to start. Just, if not more importantly, the costs of learning a new language and moving to a new country with no friends or family. Would you move to Russia in 2 years for a job that pays less?
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I'd agree as a general strategy. I hate when teams rush young prospects. I don't want to see Shinkaruk on the Canucks until 2016. But for Horvat I am split, but you're probably right it's better for him to go to junior.
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It could be his goal as of now. I'm just saying he could find himself very comfortable in the KHL. He may not yet realize the costs of coming to the NHL.
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What do you think he is going to say when talking to an NHL team at the draft? The question is will he want to in 2 years. There is a lot of costs that go in to coming to Vancouver to play in the NHL. I would argue that the more successful he is in the KHL over the next 2 years the less likely he will come to the NHL.
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There is a significant chance he doesn't every come to the NHL. The fact that he doesn't speak English should not be over looked. He will make good money in the KHL for the next couple years. Why incur the costs of learning a new language, moving away from home leaving friends and family all to take a pay cut and play in the NHL?
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Horvat is tough call. What is better: for him to play limited 3/4 line minutes in the NHL or play 22 plus minutes a night in junior? I think because he does not need to put on a lot of size (one of the main factors under 20s go back to the CHL) he should stay in the NHL. That being said I do wonder about his offensive skill. The scouts are saying if he fulfills his offensive potential he could be a second line center but if he falls short he will be a 3rd line center. An extra year in the OHL could help him better develop his offense.
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I'm all for big gambles after the second round. This is a great one.
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Best goal scorer in the draft and the best skater (yes better than Ehlers).