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Everything posted by baumerman77
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Nice strawman. You obviously don't agree with me so why don't you leave it there and we will find out on draft day.
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I'm not sure if this was meant to be a joke or not.
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Sure he could grow to 6' he is either 5'11" or 5'10" we will find out at the draft combine. I doubt he will put on more than an inch if he does grow at all. The issue is his weight coupled with his style of play. It isn't that easy to put on 15-20 pounds of muscle that takes years. He put up good numbers in Europe because 1. it is less physical (which complements his game) and 2. the big ice complements his speed. Do you really want to see Nylander in a Canucks uniform going up and taking a faceoff against Kopitar, Thorton, Getzlaf, etc? As a side note: Nylanders highlights videos are not that impressive. He holds onto the puck far too long and did anyone else notice how far out of position some of those goalies were?
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I agree. But I do wish central scouting would put out a combined rankings. People have a tendency to look at central scouting and think the Canucks could have a 6-8 ranked NA skater or a 1-2 Euro skater (which "looks" better). If it were combined those top Euro skaters would likely be ranked at the highest 8-10.
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This is the smartest post on this thread.
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You're exactly right. My point isn't to make an argument about why teams will pass him over. Each team may do so for their own reasons. I am just saying the historical record has not to been kind to players of his profile. And that the Canucks will not drafted him.
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I am not saying he is a bad player. I am not saying he is going to be a bust. I am not saying the scouts are wrong. I am saying that 6th is far too high to draft him and in all likelihood he will be drafted outside of the top 10 even in though this draft year isn't deep. If you think he is going to be a top 5 pick we will see on draft day.
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Look at the guys you mentioned and where they were drafted (or didn't get drafted). All those guys would have went much higher if they were bigger. Pointing to small guys in the NHL is a bad way to make the point to draft them (because you neglect to point out all the small guys who were drafted but never made it). I'm not against drafting small guys, but when you have a 6th pick and there are a bunch of good prospects that already have size it is a bad strategy to draft small.
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To get to my original point 6th is way too high to draft Nylander. Maybe some team gambles on him at 9 or 10 but I wouldn't be on it. Are you saying he is a top 5 or a top 10? It is a lot easier to play European hockey against men. He also plays WITH men. You make a common rookie mistake when looking at prospects you look at their numbers. When teams draft players they don't draft them based on what they have done they draft players based on what they are projected to do.
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That doesn't make sense. It doesn't really matter why teams choose not draft European skaters under 6' they just don't as the record clearly shows. I could guess that the reasons could be 1. different style of play 2. generally less games played 3. not scouted as thoroughly 4. concerns they might not come over to North America etc. But the point isn't really WHY NHL teams choose not to draft these types of players (I am sure they all have differing reasons) the fact is that they do not.
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I was talking about guys who play in Europe. As the record clearly shows teams are very reluctant to draft undersized European skaters in the top 12. There is no arguing with the data. It is what it is. I guess your claim is that Nylander is the best European prospect under 6 feet in the past 20 year?
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Well to begin with Burakovsky went 23rd. Yeah his numbers are probably better than Forsberg's were. But both Forsberg and Burakovsky were over 6'1". How many of Nylander's goals were shootout goals? I know his only goal in the SHL was a shootout goal. We could add at least 4 goals to all the CHL prospects to even things up. 6th is far too high for Nylander. Maybe if we had the 10th pick we could roll the dice. Perhaps you did not see my post from earlier: From 2013 Draft to 1993 Draft (20 drafts) only 2 European skaters under 6 feet have went in the top 12: Mikael Granlund (9th, 2010) from the Finnish League --- NHL Totals: Games:90 Goals:10 Assists:39 Points: 49 (Still very young) Stanislav Chistov (5th, 2001) from the Russian League --- NHL Totals: Games:196 Goals:19 Assists:42 Points: 61 20 years x 12 top picks = 240 only two of which have been European skaters under 6 feet. Also none of them have come from the Swedish League.
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His size. His defence. His offensive numbers don't look that impressive. He played the majority of the year in a weak league (difficult to judge his competition. Unknown if he could adapt his game to the smaller rink.
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I could see Draisaitl slipping to 6th. His numbers (as a 17 year old) are on par with Virtanen and Perlini -- they are all around a point per game. The one thing I haven't seen anyone bring up is the scouting. Specifically scouting in the WHL. The geographical logistics of the WHL make it such that scouts generally stick to big cities (they are also more likely to live in a big city and the big cities are geographically centered). In the WHL this means; Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and to a lesser extent Saskatoon and Regina. Scouts generally wait until a team like the Raiders (Draisaitl's team) come to one of these big cities, instead of driving all the way out to Prince Albert. I'm not saying scouts do not go to these far little towns but they scout more often from big cities. What does this have to do with the Canucks draft? Well a guy like Draisaitl can sit back at home games, maybe not backcheck or forecheck as hard, maybe take a shift or two off, maybe cherrypick at the red line. Remember Prince Albert has one of the lowest attendance rates in the CHL. Conversely a guy like Virtanen who plays in Calgary has to play well every home game because he knows there will be scouts in the stands. Think about it this way - let's say Virtanen causes a horrible turnover (very dumb play) at a home game - scouts will notice this. On the other hand Draisaitl does the same thing on a Thursday night in Prince Albert - not as many if any scouts will notice this. One more point is this; who do you think is driving to Prince Albert in February in the middle of a snowstorm? A team's head scout with the most experience and a high salary or the rookie scout who is earning his strips? Of course I am generalizing here but nobody will deny more scouts have watched Virtanen than Draisaitl. And let's not forget how important the number of games watched is when it comes to scouting.
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Canucks finishing 25th is bad news for those who wanted: Nylander, Ehlers or Kapanen. If we do indeed get the 6th pick: Virtanen, Draisaitl, Richie or Perlini will be chosen. There is zero chance of: Dal Colle, Ekblad, Bennett, or Reihart falling to 6th.
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Carolina wins!
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Why would we draft a Defenceman? Has anyone bothered to look at how much we are paying our dmen and how many are locked up with NTC?
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First, I was not talking about Europeans rather European Skaters. If you didn't know Yakupov played junior in the OHL. For that matter, Nylander was born in Canada. So I am not entirely sure what Finland and Sweden's population has to do with anything. The point is that in the past 20 years only 2 European Skaters under 6 feet have went in top 12. Whatever the reason may be teams are reluctant to draft these types of players early. A few arguments has been made, you can agree or disagree, as to why this is the case: 1. They are scouted less 2. The quality of the competition varies greatly 3. The style of the game is different
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It is my understand that we can technically pick: 1st overall if we win 6th-8th depending on the lottery Please everyone we all like MDC but he is a lock for the top 4 and we won't take him if we win the draft lottery so the only shot we have at MDC is if we trade up.
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2014 isn't that deep. But that doesn't matter for us with a 6 or 7 pick. That being said this years draft isn't weak, I would say average.
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I can see a lot of people are very fond of Nylander. My comment was based on historical results. From 2013 Draft to 1993 Draft (20 drafts) only 2 European skaters under 6 feet have went in the top 12: Mikael Granlund (9th, 2010) from the Finnish League --- NHL Totals: Games:90 Goals:10 Assists:39 Points: 49 (Still very young) Stanislav Chistov (5th, 2001) from the Russian League --- NHL Totals: Games:196 Goals:19 Assists:42 Points: 61 20 years x 12 top picks = 240 only two of which have been European skaters under 6 feet. Also none of them have come from the Swedish League.
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Smaller European skaters historically speaking drop down on draft day. He won't be a top 10 pick, possibly a 10-12 but highly unlikely. Both Kempe and Kapanen are safer pickers and as such are likely to go before Nylander. I am very curious to see how Nylander does at the combine.
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Nylander won't be taken in the top 12. He'll likely be the third European skater taken.
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I agree with your concerns with his playmaking ability. I'd be interested if anyone here who frequents Hitmen games could lend some insight into Virtanen's playmaking abilities? In particular does he like to carry the puck at all through the neutral zone?
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Well I didn't mention Fleury because I don't think he is consideration (We don't need a defenceman and it would be too early in the draft to take him). Dal Colle is a lock for the top 4 so it is pointless to argue how good he is. Perlini is pretty much average (a little young). My point was to illustrate the extremes among guys we are likely to take thus the Virtanen - Ritchie - Draisaitl comparisons.