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Everything posted by baumerman77
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Haha, I really don't think you are referring to Shawn Thornton, because he was pretty much a non-factor in that series and not remotely a tone changer. Yes, sure we could be a tougher team. But the use of Ferland as counterpoint to our team toughness is just ludicrious. This guy is a fringe NHLer. The Canucks have much bigger problems than team toughness. Anyway didn't Benning bring in those two short enforcers (Dorsett and Prust) to add team toughness? I'm sure that will end up being a great decision...
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I really don't understand all this talk about Ferland. He had a good 4 games against the Canucks. This guy isn't even necessarily going to turn into an NHLer and if he does, I find it extremely unlikely he'll turn into anything more than a fourth liner. I've never seen so much attention by CDC on a fourth liner prospect of a division rival. There are so many other good, established, players to worry about.
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I'm starting to think that Benning already has Virtanen penciled-in for the team. I think they'll let him play until December and then send him to WJC and then back to junior before the important 40 game mark. Which may be the best course of action. I am still strongly in the camp that another year of junior would be better for his development.
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I think they are probably more concerned with game 40 as a deadline not game 10 for Virtanen. I could see them keeping Virtanen for around 25 games, letting him go to the WJC and then sending him back to junior.
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Oh I agree. And personally I would like to see him traded to a different junior team. Often times he would play almost as if he were a center, dropping back in the D zone to get the puck and then carrying it through the neutral zone. I didn't like that too much. He really needs to play with a good play-making center to exploit his potential.
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Sure he might get 11-13 minutes of ice time, but he'd get well over 20 minutes in the WHL.I still think the WHL (and WJC) would be better for his development next season. He can fine tune his offense (dominate), take on leadership roles on the Hitmen and Canada WJC team and mature, work on his defense and positioning (easier to do at the WHL level), and gain confidence. We also need to remember he was one of the youngest guys in his draft class so his +2 season is "earlier" than others (especially with time lost because of his injury). However, I am really interested to see what he looks like in training camp. I'm not really concerned about size/speed but rather his defence and positioning in pre-season games. I noticed watching the Hitmen that he often goes out of position for a hit, or to try and intercept a pass. At the WHL level he can get away with it because he is so much quicker than the others he can easily recover. I am curious to see if he becomes more risk adverse when starting at the NHL level.
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I agree with this. I've seen Virtanen play live over 20 times, more this season than last, and I would agree he has rounded out his game this year. But he still struggles to be consistent all the time (both offensively, but also physically). Sometimes I wouldn't notice him for a whole period and I was specifically looking for him. But this is common for a lot of junior players. Personally, I would prefer him to go back to junior for another season rather than be a bottom 6 guy for the Canucks next year.
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What would Brisebois have to do at the start of next season to get a invite to the Canada WJC selection camp in December? More offense? Better Defence? Speed? Physicality? It is extremely unlikely he makes the team as most D-men are all 19 year olds (draft +2); in fact I think all were last year except Hicketts. Brisebois was the 12th selected Canadian D-man this year so he would need to jump a lot of guys in this years and last years draft just to get a selection camp invite.
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Is anyone familiar with USA WJC depth on RW? I'm curious to know Boeser odds of making the team next year and who he'll be competing against for a spot.
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Do people still actually think plus/minus is a useful or insightful at all? If people still actually use plus/minus I hope that they know that generally the best players on very bad teams normally have among the worst plus/minus on that team. I don't understand those people who are saying that his numbers aren't good. His numbers are actually fairly good for a third round defenceman when you adjust for age and team quality.
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Thanks for this. Very good work.
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Yes, I agree. Perhaps more as an assessment of ceiling than average though. If Boeser can turn into a 3rd line winger who plays over 200 NHL games that is a successful would make this selection successful. That attribute I like most about him is his ability to get off a quick shot. There is not much time and space in the NHL and if he can hone that skill he could really work out. That attribute that scares me the most is that some scouts have said he isn't particularly strong in one-on-one puck battles for 50/50 pucks.
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No I really don't because I know you are correct -- many have busted. My point was when we talk about potential or projection we got to be realistic. Just because he could turn into a top 6 winger doesn't mean he is likely to. I guess I could be called a projected lottery winner because I bought a ticket, never mind that the odds are over a million to one.
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A better list would be a list of players with similar PPG and GPG as Boeser but didn't make the NHL (busts) or just one comprehensive list. The list above is not really insightful because it only provides NHLers who made it. One could make almost any prospect look good by that measure. If I made a list like this for Brendan Gaunce's comparables it would be guys like Getzlaf, Bergeron, O'Rielly, Ebrele, Johansen, etc. I'm pretty sure nobody thinks those are real possibilities for Gaunce (save for a few die-hard supporters). So that list has a several big names, but how many players had very similar draft profiles to Boeser but never made the NHL? Perhaps for every one of those NHLers on the list there were 4 or 5 who were busts. Keep expectations realistic. His progress the next two years will be crucial in determining if he'll be an NHLer and if so what type of one he is likely to be. One other thing to note, Boeser had a very high shooting percentage this year (14.5%) which means his goal total was likely slightly inflated (he got a little lucky), but - and I would argue more importantly - his shot metrics were fantastic at 4.2 shots per game.
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I agree. I was just making the point from a statistical standpoint. There are numerous attributes those stats don't account for specifically when looking at USHL players. In the CHL, when using stats analysis it is more accurate because the sample size is much greater and intangibles wash out in the large sample size. Because the USHL cohort is so small these intangibles have a much bigger impact (positive or negative). From what I seen, statistically he has about the same odds of making the NHL as an average mid-20s pick, about 50/50--very similar to Gaunce's probability when he was draft (albeit different type of players).
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I agree his cohort does suggest first line upside. But honeslty you could find top line potential within any cohort, probability is far more important. His cohort still suggests he is more likely to not play in the NHL than play in the NHL for 200 games. And if he does win that battle and plays in the NHL, his cohort suggest he is more likely to be a bottom 6 than a top 6. And his lack of comparables makes it likely that his cohort model could be inaccurate either leading to a favorable outcome or equally an unfavorable outcome. Which, I should say, is fairly common for 23rd picks.
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Here is a list of forwards drafted out of the USHL* from 2000-2015 in the first round. *They played primarily for a USHL team not on the national development team (which I know gets confusing), but that is Boeser profile so it is only fair to have comparables meet that criteria. PPG Year Connor 1.43 2015 Schwartz 1.38 2010 Lewis 1.33 2006 Boeser 1.19 2015 Okposo 1.16 2006 Schmaltz 1.15 2014 Girgensons 1.12 2012 Pacioretty 1.05 2007 Leblanc 0.98 2009 Miller 0.72 2011 There are a few advantages of this list of comparables. 1) It demonstrates the lack of USHL forward draftees in the first round. This lack of sample size causes uncertainty in any statistical model. 2) It is not does not truncate all comparables like the aforementioned list of "NHL comparables" which could lead to some thinking that all players with a similar profile made the NHL. 3) It factors in the risk of using a first round pick. You won't find Gaurdeau on the list even though his PPG was 1.2 because he was selected in the 4th round. As previously stated, I can't really pass judgement on the potential of this pick at this time from a statistical perspective because there is very little to go on (which in itself makes the selection risky). If you eliminate Leblanc and Miller whose PPG is not really comparable to Boeser you are left with only 7 other players over a 15 year time span.
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Yes, or Horvat greatly improved the next year(s). I agree that there is a smaller list of comparables out of the USHL so the methodology likely isn't as reliable, which brings me back to my overall point. His next year at the NCAA will clarify a lot. This seems like a list of only his NHL comparables (at least PPG-wise). Does anyone know of a list of his USHL prospect comparables (over perhaps the past 10 years or so)?
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A lot of those guys weren't drafted out of the USHL but rather played draft -1 seasons there. They went on to CHL or NCAA where the competition is better and thus it is easier to judge the talent, as was my point. Like I said next year will be most insightful to really judge his potential. As far as statistical comparables, Canucks Army has players in the same statistical cohort making the NHL between 25.0-33.1% of the time. And the projection project (which uses NHL Equivalencies), puts his success rate at 46% (success by both measures is playing 200 NHL games) and of those successful players most are 2nd or 3rd liners. http://www.theprojectionproject.com/Home/Search http://canucksarmy.com/2015/6/16/nation-network-prospect-profiles-33-brock-boeser
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He wasn't in my top 3 but not a bad choice. Because the USHL is not a top quality league I will reserve judgement on him until after his first NCAA season that should clarify what type of player he is and how good he is.
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Ya I noticed that too. Benning does think highly of his scouting ability, he very well could've. But I think this is probably Benning's best pick of the draft (relative to the drafting position).
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He looks better than Sbisa, at least he's in position to get a shot off.
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I like this pick. A very young player too.
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I like going to Europeans after the 3rd round. Not sure if this is the best pick, but expectations should be very low for fourth round picks.
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Perhaps it is their "sector" lingo. ie 2/3 would be the third ranked prospect in sector 2 (or the other way around).