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Provost last won the day on April 14 2016

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6,643 Gaming the system

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About Provost

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    Canucks First-Line
  • Birthday October 24

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  1. Well it is getting to pucker time for us to make a Markstrom deal and then be able to make other required moves before the draft. I would seriously consider having a deadline by the end of the week, and if no deal trade his rights out East (trying to keep him away from Calgary). Detroit can have his rights for one of our minor cap dumps. Either Sutter or Beagle at full ticket (Who are only a little overpaid) or Baertschi. We can add in something minor like a mid/late pick. It is worth it getting rid of that cap space. It we know we don’t have Markstrom and have dumped Sutter or Beagle... we suddenly can become players in the trade market where we can take cap back.
  2. Did you miss the little Sutter cap dump in there?
  3. I think that we need to give a deadline by the end of the week for this negotiation. If it isn’t going to happen, I want to try to trade his rights. Mainly to try to give a team that is NOT Calgary a head start on signing him. Maybe send Sutter, Markstrom’s rights, and a 4th to Detroit for a 6th round pick... something like that.
  4. I think we knew they would likely want to push money later... I just didn’t know the CBA allowed it with the new rules.
  5. Tough way to end a stellar career with that team. I wonder if he will hang them up or try another gig as a back up on a contending team. He is pretty much done, but that experience in the room could be really useful. Yet another goalie on the pile of free agents and trade bait this offseason. I take Lundqvist over Holtby (but preferably neither of them).
  6. They could be at different levels. An offer sheet at $4 million for Cernak (2nd round pick) and $6.5 million for Sergachev (1st and 3rd round picks) don't use the same picks as compensation. We have all three of those picks next year which are the ones that would be in play for any offer sheet since they can only take place after the draft. At those levels you can be pretty certain they match on only one, but they are also exposed with Cirelli that someone else could offer sheet. Mostly it is really the looming threat of an offer sheet that causes GMs to make moves and not offer sheets themselves. The players also have to agree to sign the offer sheet, which maybe the Tampa guys don't do and wait to see if other cap is cleared before deciding. We also maybe don't want to entirely open up that can of worms with two RFAs coming up pretty soon and a really tight cap situation next season.
  7. I was just looking deep at the currently permitted contract variability in the new CBA extension. Folks have been talking about it as an absolute limit on the amount a contract can vary from start to finish. I hadn't actually read the language before so didn't question it. The ACTUAL language only pertains to FRONT LOADED contracts (where the average of the first half exceeds the average of the 2nd half). In this flat cap/escrow world, we aren't like to see front-loaded contracts often at all. Players and agents are going to want to push money to the end of the contract and avoid as much escrow as possible. This is a unique situation. CBA §50.7(a) amended to provide as follows: For all "Front-Loaded SPCs" (as defined below), the difference between the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any immediately adjacent League Years of that SPC cannot exceed twenty-five (25) percent of the stated Player Salary and Bonuses of the first League Year of such Front-Loaded SPC. Additionally, under no circumstances may the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year of a Front-Loaded SPC be less than Page 26 of 71 sixty (60) percent of the highest stated Player Salary and Bonuses in a League Year of that same Front-Loaded SPC. The effect of this means to me that my assumption of a bridge deal being preferable to agents could be wrong. A max term deal allows A LOT more flexibility to push money into later years and effectively increase the take home on those dollars by 20% (once escrow is mostly out of the picture). The "non front loaded" language just says that the raise/decrease from consecutive year to year can't be more than 50% of the lower of their salary/bonuses of the first two years of the contract. It doesn't say anything about how any year can't be more than XX% higher or lower than any other year. If I am reading that right, that could mean an 8 year contract with almost all paid out in years 5-8. $4 million in year one $4 million in year two $5 million in year three $7 million in year four $9 million in year five $11 million in year six $13 million in year seven $15 million in year eight = $8.5 AAV A structure like that escapes millions in escrow in the early compared with a bridge deal that doesn't have the ability to take advantage of backloading that much. The agent would be betting that escrow is dramatically reduced or eliminated in the later years of the contract when all the new TV money is coming in and the players have paid back the owners what they will owe. This is probably behind the Pietrangelo walking away from negotiations when his camp said that it wasn’t the AAV, but the “structure” that was the problem and St. Louis not willing to move on that. Obviously teams will (oddly) want to front load star contracts now as they get 20% back right away and it will cost them millions less in real dollars over the contract.
  8. Ya, I don't think we have to be closed to any options at all right now. Easy for us to make the trades without having to worry about another GM. If we could get Cernak or Sergachev via offer sheet... great. If we could get any one of Montour, Ristolainen, Ekblad, Severson, Pesce, Dumba, etc via trade... great. If we could do a cap dump swap and end up with a decent veteran on a short term contract like Stralman... great. If we signed Demelo or Dillon... great. If none of the above work and we have to re-sign Tanev (within reason in terms of contract)... great. If none of the above happen...not so great. I love Stecher as a 3rd pairing guy who can fill in higher when called upon... but to slot in as a 2nd pairing guy right at the start of the season means a step back for an already subpar defence. We could rebuild it during expansion by taking on unprotected guys from other teams, but giving up a year of progress is a tough pill to swallow when you also have to negotiate some important extensions. Add better and/or cheaper players and we can make the rest of the puzzle work.
  9. I never suggested that he was a Tanev replacement in terms of role at all. Just that I would rather spend the money on him if it was a choice of how you allocate money. Defensive complementary D are a lot cheaper and easier to come by than star level young D men, so if you have Hughes and Sergachev one the same side, you can find veterans to play alongside them with much more simple games. Sergachev is no slouch defensively either with lots of blocked shots and hits, he is just on a team where there are better options at that end of the ice. A pairing of Sergachev-Stecher is just fine with me... or Sergachev-Tryamkin down the road.
  10. Ya, you definitely try to trade, but the offer sheet threat keeps the return down to a more manageable level. Gaudette and a 2nd I would do.. but not a 1st. Gaudette is the bonus for them doing it early and not being stuck with an offer sheet they can't match.
  11. Just offer sheet him for less. Something around the $4 million mark and it is just a 2nd round pick. We are a week away from offer sheets being open and Tampa has to move pieces right away. They could be in a position for several teams to offer sheet their RFAs and not even have the tagging room to match them even if they wanted to go 10% over the cap. The team is going to have a couple days to celebrate, but there will be several Tampa players who are on different teams by the draft. There is so much pressure on them to move cap out right away and avoid losing RFAs. Just from our end, we could offer sheet both Cernak and Cirelli at different levels and make them choose if they can match one of them. Someone else is almost certainly eyeing Sergachev... heck we could even consider it. I take him at $7.5-8.0 over Tanev at $5 million.
  12. I don't know the destination, but I feel like today or tomorrow should be the days we see some moves from the team. Stanley Cup has been awarded so the etiquette of not upstaging the final is out of the way. It is just a week before the draft and just a couple more days after that to free agency, the dam has to burst pretty soon if we want to be players at all. I hope things don't get stalled while teams see what RFAs are left unqualified rather than pulling the trigger on trades.
  13. I think we sometimes lose sight of how great the characters of our stars has been over the years. The Sedins were the hardest workers and incredibly humble. Petterson doesn’t seem humble, but there doesn’t seem to be any question that he is compotes driven and a good team mate. Hughes seems like a really solid kid too.
  14. I would be shocked if it was that low, but to me “less than expected”. Means a bridge contract between Boeser’s and $6.5 million, or a max term contract of around $8 million per. Either puts us in a greet position compared with Toronto who is paying g their stars above $10 million.
  15. ... and the new cap calculation averages out the two previous years rather than just a single year to keep it more stable. That means it has to be two years AFTER revenue catches up before the cap increases much of at all. The players will also owe money after that due to the artificial cap on escrow right now. There is basically no way revenue next season (and even the season after) will have recovered enough to only be around 20% escrow. That means it is almost certainly a 4-5 year flat cap with only small increases for a couple years after that. Tough sledding for players wanting to cash in.