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Everything posted by Provost
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Jim Bennings legacy without the OEL trade. Grade him out of 10.
Provost replied to MaxVerstappen33's topic in Canucks Talk
This is what I have said all along, virtually no one got to stay that long in their position with getting such bad results. I haven't seen this particular graphic before, but ones similar. I would like to see one with all the GMs who had 5 or more years at the helm, that would include more data points. The worst part, is his best year was before he could make any changes and just had the leftover "stale" Gillis team, that actually brings his average up! The longer he had to make moves, the worse it looked. To make it EVEN worse, add the context that he had fully capped out team and no internal budget. Many teams performing well above him during his tenure were cap floor teams or ones who were intentionally tanking to rebuild. GMs with losing records just don't get to stay in their jobs, nor should they. With the loser point, it is actually REALLY hard to consistently be under .500 -
Folks shouldn't get excited about sniping cap casualty players. No team has more money committed than we do. We are the team that most needs to shake players loose. I repeated over and over again between November and the trade deadline (when the season was already effectively lost), that we had to move out as many players as possible to accrue assets and cap space. This summer was going to be the tightest cap situation league-wide in history. Virtually no money left in the whole system. Plenty of good players will shake out for pennies on the dollar, and solid RFAs won't be qualified because their teams can't afford a high arbitration award that they aren't allowed to walk away from contractually. Instead, we committed more cap that any other team in the league and used premium assets to do it. Hronek is a good player, he also cost us a lot and is going to be due a huge raise in a year. There will be D available for just cap space, just like Marino was last year. I take a team friendly cost-controlled Marino for several more years and a mid 1st round pick over Hronek at $7 million or more for his extension... or who can take a qualifying offer and then walk as a UFA a year later. Kuzmemko is also a good player, he was also on a very cheap ELC deal that would have made him worth a mint to contenders at the deadline. A top line producing winger at under a million? That gives you a 1st round pick and the top prospect from most teams. There will be many good wingers available at a fraction of that trade cost this summer, or even free. You are going to be shocked at the players who move and are picked up this summer. It is a really good year to be Chicago if they want to start rebuilding their roster now that they have Bedard. They can take on good players from cap strapped teams AND get assets for the privilege. Some of them will be good young players they want on their roster long term. They got rid of a ton of cap at the deadline, and can now use it. While they aren't likely going to be going out and spending all the high draft picks they acquired, they aren't going to have to.
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[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
There are some significant problems with this idea. 1. The bonus isn’t due until just before training camp. So he would continue to be untradeable until then. We need to clear cap space at the start of the summer, hoping that someone takes Myers at the last minute means we can’t use his potential freed up cap. 2. There aren’t any teams struggling to hit the cap floor, and there are plenty of teams that would be happy to offload an LTIR contract and give a sweetener to do it. League wide there is only something like $400 Million in cap space with over 200 roster spots to fill…. Less than $2 million per player when the league average is over $3 million. That is assuming that all teams are spending to the cap, which isn’t the case. That makes it probably $50 million lower, LTIR opportunities probably make that a wash be freeing up a little more cap space (but also more roster spots to fill). Teams re-signing their own players and a few high end will take most of that cap space available. 3. Teams mentioned like Carolina are cap teams and not going to take on a $6 million hit for a 3rd pairing D. The bonus being paid doesn’t matter to them as they would still get tagged with the full cap hit. 4. There are a limited few teams line Arizona who could find Myers useful at $1 million in real money. His 10 team NTC could vastly impact any chance of moving him. What motivation could he have to play in Arizona? His agent could easily identify the 10 teams with cap space to fit him in, and put them on his list. -
[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Garland with money retained for Lafreniere was the suggestion on the tweet. if it was a small amount retained, I would consider it to save some cap money and get a younger player. Three years is a long time to retain on and you only have a couple of retention spots, so it could handcuff a larger deal down the road. If it was Garland $1 million retained for Lafreniere, I would do it. Assume Lafreniere will sign a deal for under $1.5 million and that is still freeing up about $2.5 million in cap space. I would rather take on a little bad money instead of the retention just to save the dead cap money. -
[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
That is yet another dumb comment in a strong history of dumb comments you have made. Not only I did not assume they would be 100% healthy and cleared to play next season, that isn't even mildly relevant. You have hit a strong double on lying and it also being nonsense even if you weren't lying. The Canucks have to be prepared to have cap space for their return UNLESS the two players are ruled out to play for the season. That is how the cap and LTIR works. They can't spend the LTIR if they don't know the players are ruled out for the season. They have to be able to have cap room for those players to return if they are determined to be healthy at any time during the season. That determination is not just made by team doctors, so shenanigans are limited in terms of cap circumvention. Both players have indicated publicly that they intend on continuing playing. -
[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Do you have any sources for the statement that those players will start the year on LTIR... and more importantly, be ruled out of the entire season? That is what would be required to not make moves to shed salary in the summer. The team cannot risk becoming non cap compliant when one of those players might return to play games. There are no options for buyouts or shedding salary at that point except to make a lopsided trade under duress to avoid being over the cap. The most recent news from both players is that they are working towards playing again and intend to play. -
I am assuming that if he is going to agree to forego free agency, his agent is going to structure that deal so he gets paid the full amount and be buyout proof.
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I had mentioned in a previous thread that due to auch a limited supply of options, he was going to get overpaid by a lot. With Gavrikov off the board even more so. This is a contract that isn’t going to look good by the end. He will be 29 before it starts That cap hit would be ok for a 5 year deal… but 8 years should come with a pretty hefty discount on the AAV.
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[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It is clearly more than that. You don’t hear those rumours about all our other players like this. It is press outside our market reporting it from the other teams in the trade discussions. Not just one ir two guys, it is common knowledge that the Canucks have been actively exploring what the return would be and if they can find a deal they like. Heck, even before they Re-signed him they said publicly they didn’t think the market for him would be lower at the draft than the previous deadline. This past deadline it was reported from several sources that deals were in the table and exactly what the Canucks wanted in return (a young NHL centre). … any idea what position PLD plays and his age? It isn’t too hard to connect the dots on why it might be a good trade fit. It doesn’t mean it will happen, all it takes is Dubois saying he won’t agree to an extension and that takes Miller off the table as the return (unless Winnipeg also wants to make a much bigger package to make up for the fact PLD could just be a rental). -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
You might want to stop using the term “mainstream media”, it makes you sound like a fake news style Trump supporter and shows any opinions you have should be safely ignored. Even if you ARE a fake news style Trump supporter… using that term to describe sports coverage is frankly silly. Guess what… The “non” mainstream sports reporters in blogs and podcasts spread nonsense about rumours far more often than the established outlets. -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Yep, any trade at this point is going to require the receiving team to arrange an extension ahead of time. If he doesn’t agree, then his price is much lower just as a rental like the deadline and Winnipeg aren’t going to get a player back, they will get picks. Probably a late 1st and a fairly high end prospect is a rental price. The bonus of doing it now is vs. The deadline is they likely wouldn't have to to take money back and can use the cap space in the UFA market. -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
The Montreal thing is WAY overblown. PLD has publicly stated that it was way overblown. His agent was asked a leading question about him playing in his home province and basically said “sure, that is an option he could see himself playing in” https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2389295/amp -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
MANY players get traded on contracts they signed before their NTC protection kicks in in later years, so this isn't really any different. The league only has short term memory... in a year, no one remembers Miller's contract details when he was traded. Basically every pundit in hockey has talked about a possible Miller trade and they aren't bringing up anything about it negatively impacting the reputation of the Canucks. Winning is what matters... if we make a move that ends up with the team being better, our players aren't going to be crying about an ex-teammate. PLD doesn't make us better immediately... but PLD plus DeMelo probably does. We invent a very good top 4 D pairing from thin air in half a season, and that is the biggest need. It far outstrips losing a bit of short term offence from PLD to Miller. -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It should also be noted, that PLD actually hasn't demanded a trade. His agent just said he won't be signing a long term extension in Winnipeg and that it might be best to move on right now than have it linger for a year before free agency. He hasn't said he will hold out. This isn't really any news beyond that we already knew he wasn't planning on signing long term. It is interesting that Hellebuck is rumoured to be on his way out as well, he is a UFA next year regardless. Winnipeg doesn't have a successor in the pipeline.... we happen to have a goalie in the system that is currently highly touted Latvian hero. You would think a deal with Miller and Silovs for PLD (signed) and one of their veteran D men.. with whatever pieces going either way to make the cap and value even out. Trades are hard to come by, but the motivations seem to make us a good trading partner. They get a C replacement, they get a highly thought of goalie who could be a back up behind Hellebuck for a year and see if he can take over a starting job, even as a 1a/1b situation with another goalie starting in 2024. We get a C who is more in the age range of when we hope our team improves, plus some defensive help in the short term while we are trying to rebuild a D core. Either Dillon or DeMelo automatically slot into our top 4 at a cheap price tag. That would be good insurance if we can't move Myers or at least can't move him until his bonus is paid in September. Dillon-Hronek pairing gives you that all purpose minute munching pairing that can take a load off both Hughes and OEL and let them play a game more suited to their skillset. DeMelo is also an option, not quite as well suited, but also kills penalties and would likely slot in with Hughes -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Nope... players know it is a business and guys without trade protection get traded. Miller's agent knew the scoop when he signed the deal and wanted to strike while the iron was hot after a career year. Miller didn't take a discount, he got full market value based on his age, production history, and risk on the back end of the deal. No one thought he was a perennial 100+ point guy for that entire contract until he was in his late 30's. A guaranteed contract of $56 million regardless of how he played this season, or even if he got a career ending injury was the reason he signed early. Petterson doesn't have to worry about getting traded because he isn't a player a team is going to trade. Being worth more than your contract is excellent trade protection. His agent made it pretty clear they would start talking in the summer, but not rushing out to sign an extension as soon as he is eligible. He isn't a UFA at the end of this contract so it isn't a big risk if we don't extend him early. -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
If it is contingent on a long term sign and trade for that contract, I am all over that deal. He is eligible to extend now, so nothing to stop any potential trade partner to demand an extension. If he won't sign an extension, then his price goes down drastically. This would represent an excellent deal for Winnipeg for an asset that is going to walk and reportedly wanting to add players and not rebuild. Getting players to sign long term in Winnipeg isn't easy, a guy on an 8 year deal like Miller would seem attractive you would think... especially as he is an immediate upgrade on PLD. We give up the better player at the moment, but swap out who will be the better player in years 2-8 of Miller's contract. PLD will almost certainly improve as he hits his prime and Miller will almost certainly decline by the time he is in his mid-30's. His agent Brisson is a hard case though, so I wouldn't be surprised for him to not sign an extension anywhere until he has all the leverage as a UFA or when they know how much the salary cap will go up. Maybe PLD just REALLY wants out badly right away so would be willing to facilitate that. Not wanting to sign an extension in Winnipeg isn't the same as not being willing to sign an extension with anyone. The latter may be the case, but it certainly isn't a foregone conclusion. -
[Signing] Kings re-sign Vladislav Gavrikov
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Big money for just two years of free agency. He is a good 2nd pairing D. To me, that is as much as I would have wanted to pay him for a long term deal. He is setting up for a max term deal with a higher cap. Basically two extra years of top dollars in his late 30’s. That contract is probably going to age like an anchor… this one is fine. -
More teams looking for D than there are D available. That is a recipe for seeing players overpaid. Severson is a fine player, but keep in mind he was outplayed by Marino who we could have gotten for basically nothing last offseason if we just had some open cap space. I am preparing to be really disappointed about how the team will again be unable to fix the roster this summer.
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You mean 6’2… 213lb Eichel who has almost 40lbs on Petterson? I don’t think you are making the point you think you are. Aside from that silly comparison, it is the entire team… not just the two players. Vegas and Florida are big, chippy teams. Their smallest skill players are well protected. Gretzky couldn’t be Gretzky without having the space and freedom to use his skill.
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I absolutely agree with most of this. Boudreau came in and coached the way he felt would give the best chance of winning. It reversed the Travis Green plan of trying to lock it down and protect a weak defence. All that did was stifle our offence and still didn’t prevent goals. Boudreau saw the players, and basically just said “run and gun” out scoring the opponents is the best chance and rely on an all star goalie to bail us out. Now Tocchet wants to have us more like a Green style of play, except grittier. The biggest issue is that the roster isn’t good enough for any coach to turn into a contender. It needs to be bigger, faster, more skilled, and grittier… hard to do all those things, but contenders do. Does anyone think Petterson or Hughes would still be playing at this point in this year’s playoffs? It has been a rough affair and those guys would have been injured in the first series.
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Maybe today… almost certainly not in 2+ years, and most definitely not by the end of Miller’s contract. We aren’t a contender, getting a guy coming into his prime has more value than having a guy at the end of his prime. If we could swap Miller for PLD, and get rid of Pearson/Garland and get Lafreniere… that is a solid looking forward group.
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I hear that Nate Schmidt guy is a player… maybe we can trade for him! :D I would totally do a Miller for PLD+ deal. Best case, we swap Miller for a young version with more upside rather than downside risk. That would represent a huge win. There is a decent chance he would get connected to the team and want to stay. Worst case, we have a bandaid for a year and a bunch of cap space next year to find another replacement. We could even trade him at the deadline if he didn’t want to extend and get a decent haul of picks/prospects for him. Not wanting to sign long term in Winnipeg isn’t the same as not wanting to sign anywhere. Have you been to Winnipeg?