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Everything posted by Provost
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[Signing] Oilers re-sign Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Provost replied to drofssalg's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It seems almost mathematically impossible for it to rise that soon based on the formula and money owed by the players that need to be paid back. The calculation includes the two previous two years so two years from now will include this past year that had almost no revenue. After that it will take 2-3 years to pay back the billion dollars or so the players have been overpaid. They might artificially raise it by a million for optics… but any material rise is years away. -
Too simplistic… for the same return, Myers for sure. The reality is Myers has pretty neutral value at best with his contract and Schmidt (post expansion) should net some value. So if it was just a matter of unloading Myers for cap space or moving Schmidt and getting a very good young 3C in return… I move Schmidt.
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Post expansion would net us decent assets back one would imagine.. not cost us anything. There will be a bunch of teams that just lost a top 4D who have playoff/Cup aspirations and will want to replace that body. That is a leverage point we have and most teams don't... extra protection slots on defence that we can take on a player or two before expansion and then (assuming Myers wouldn't be picked up), selling a body or two after expansion.
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I would much rather get bigger bodies... if the option is out there. I have mentioned a few times that a 2nd pairing of Zadorov-Ristolainen would be a pretty good complement to who we have now. It would necessitate moving out one of Schmidt/Myers probably but that isn't the end of the world.
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If you consider all the future liability they are shedding that is where I don’t think we should add our first. We take away $60 million in cash liability ($70 million total minus what they would retain on OEL) from them in exchange for $8.7 million in cash.
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Not that I think OEL is an ideal trade target, but if we did end up moving on him (with cap retained which is the only way it could possibly make any sense)... I would want Dvorak coming back too. He is owed more money than his cap hit, so could maybe be pried away from an Arizona team if it is looking to shed dollars. He is a really good 3C who is fast, can PK, and pot in some offence as well OEL with $2.25 million cap retained plus Dvorak saves them close to $13 million real dollars next season plus all that extra cash liability going forward in further years. Taking back Eriksson, Roussel, and Beagle costs them $8.7 in real dollars to fill 3 roster spots (or as low as $7.5 if Beagle is on LTIR)... at the same time it gives them $12 million in cap hit so they don't have to worry about hitting the cap floor. In that deal they would want some futures... so Juolevi, DiPietro, and a couple of picks that aren't our 1st rounder would have to be on the table.
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[Rumour]. Zadorov in Chicago.. may not stick .
Provost replied to SilentSam's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I am good with that if you just substitute a Knight from the next year instead of Domi... Dvorak. Give us two bottom 6 C that play a great 2 way game and can still pot in more than half a point a game, or play Dvorak on the wing for a stellar PK duo. Miller-Petterson-Boeser Pearson-Horvat-Hoglander Dvorak-Tierney-Podkolzin Motte-Sutter-? Hughes-Hamonic Zadorov-Schmidt Rathbone-Myers -
[Rumour]. Zadorov in Chicago.. may not stick .
Provost replied to SilentSam's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Of course he will get overplayed... but the I don't see the other side being true. He would get overplayed because there is no one who is a better option than him. We don't have someone within the organization who is pounding on the door to take over those minutes, especially on the PK side of things. He isn't hampering anyone's development, throwing untested kids to the wolves in a top 4 role and primary penalty killer is far more likely to hamper development. We wasted this year of being able to really look at Juolevi and Rathbone and see what they can handle. Rathbone isn't an Edler replacement for sure, and Juolevi barely held his head above water in limited minutes so far. If we want to replace Edler, it is going to need to be from outside the organization. Leave Rathbone/Juolevi to 3rd pairing roles where they belong at this point in their careers. The ONLY reason to sign Edler is to be a stopgap until someone else is close to ready, AND if Edler wants to sign a cheap enough deal. -
[Rumour] Tkachuk may want out of Calgary
Provost replied to CanucksCountry's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
… I am assuming they aren’t saying that they are also sending their 1st and Goidreau out in that trade to even it out? -
[Rumour] Tkachuk may want out of Calgary
Provost replied to CanucksCountry's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
He has a qualifying offer of $9 million and I think he could then elect arbitration and get a 1 year award that walks him to free agency in 2 seasons. For a guy that hasn’t ever been a point per game player? No thanks. If we want dumb antics, that is what a 3rd liner is for who you happily trade penalties when they take off the opposing best players. I don’t want my highest paid player in the penalty box all the time and engaging in nonsense. -
[Rumour] Tkachuk may want out of Calgary
Provost replied to CanucksCountry's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
While I doubt the level of insider knowledge of Shane O’Brien… this seems like a layup for Ottawa if it is true. Ottawa has a ton of young assets and it would be a marketing coup for them to add a Tkachuk. -
It wouldn’t be $8.5 in that scenario as the poster clearly said “AND they retain significant cap.” At $6 million cap hit, I absolutely look at OEL as long as they also take on the short term bad cap to make it work this year. We can even do it before expansion which is something no other team would likely be willing to do.
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That isn’t what people are saying. It is absolutely an objective risk paying top dollar to a player over 30. Many of them do decline and the exceptions are much more rare. Long term contracts are signed knowing they might not age well, but you get the early years at a lower ticket price in exchange for those overpaid older years. Edler at 35 isn’t the same as Edler at 25 or 30. His decline hasn’t been really steep… but some players fall off a cliff and you don’t want to be holding the bag on the guy that does. In this case it is even more pronounced because the player has already trended down, and all of his pre-30 years are already in the rear view mirror and the receiving team is taking on all the risk with little upside. If you waived OEL he probably doesn’t get picked up. Of course, you can’t waive him because he has a full NMC for every year of the contract. That is the other big risk with the contract. Once his real dollar salary drops it would be possible to move him to a team that isn’t at the cap ceiling… he controls that process. Arizona can’t even expose him to expansion.
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I am not sure if you fully comprehend what “term” is. We signed Edler to a short term deal, and would only sign him to 1 year term going forward. Each player ages and declines differently… 6 year terms vs. 1 year terms are not comparable.
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He is still an excellent D man… just a bad contract. With $2 million retained he is worth the risk. If we could offload enough cap hit back to them with less term owing, then it opens up some possibilities. We would be overpaying OEL, but suddenly maybe we could sign both Petterson and Hughes to max term deals which would save us money on that side of things as inflation (eventually) made those good deals… offsetting the couple of million extra OEL is being paid. The one danger of short term deals for Hughes and Petterson is that they will be due big raises when those bridge deal expire. This is a deal fraught with some risk, but you can’t get better without accepting some risk.
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Wow… that is an interesting idea. OEL is badly overpaid… but Myers is also overpaid… so we upgrade to a legit top 4 guy for an additional $2.5 million. Arizona gets out of a $50 million real dollar liability that has a full NMC and just takes back $18 million in cash that they can also move because he only has a modified NTC. I can imagine that Arizona makes the no trade list for Myers though.
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Elias Pettersson | Quinn Hughes - Contract Discussion Thread
Provost replied to Bertuzzipunch's topic in Canucks Talk
Well they aren’t going to go for that since they can get monster contracts AND decent bridge deals. If they play for $4-6 million under market price for a year it will take most of the career being overpaid to make up for that missed money. Also, we have extra cap space after next year, but we also can’t be giving out monster contracts then as we need to still be efficient with money. In subsequent years we will have to re-sign Boeser, Miller, Horvat, Hoglander, and Podkolzin…. As well as paying some top 4D. -
[Rumour] Sam Reinhart open to a trade back to West Coast
Provost replied to a topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
The one caveat to Reinhart is that he doesn’t fit the profile they say they want to add (speed) and many of his points have come on the power play. He won’t get all the prime PP minutes on our team like he does in Buffalo so his offence might suffer some. -
[Rumour] Sam Reinhart open to a trade back to West Coast
Provost replied to a topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
While it would be amazing to shed Loui… if you could move Roussel or Beagle in that deal instead of “little things” it is still a good one and probably more realistic. -
[Rumour] Sam Reinhart open to a trade back to West Coast
Provost replied to a topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
No… Miller cost us a possible/probable unprotected lottery pick. That was factored into the equation It was a pretty good bet at the time that we would miss the playoffs both years and end up with a top 10 pick. What it ended up being doesn’t bear any relation to what the trade actually was when it was consummated. Add that to the salary cap pressure point they had and Buffalo doesn’t and the two deals and situations bear no resemblance to each other. -
[Rumour] Sam Reinhart open to a trade back to West Coast
Provost replied to a topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I would love Eriksson to be in the deal but that might be too big an ask. Adding Thompson in is a great idea. We have a hole in bottom six centre or a cheap young winger as an upgrade on older/expiring veterans. He would be an interesting add and see if he could be turned into a 3rd line centre for a line expected to provide extra offence, or a winger on that line. -
[Rumour] Sam Reinhart open to a trade back to West Coast
Provost replied to a topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Assuming we are able to have a reasonable under market extension (like not much of a raise on what he is getting now) agreed to before making the trade... I would do.. 9OA Dipietro Some cap off our books (Roussel/Beagle/etc) for Reinhart decent later pick/prospect If there was a way to get Risto in the trade by adding/swapping things out... even better. We can't fix everything in one trade or in one season (where we don't have much cap space)... but solidifying our top 6 for the foreseeable future would be pretty remarkable. Miller-Petterson-Boeser Hoglander-Horvat-Reinhart Pearson-XX-Podkolzin Motte-Sutter on 1 year deal?-XX Pretty much done and dusted forward group... either Miller or Reinhart can fill in as 3C in the short term if we can't find one this offseason and are also able to be back up centres in case of injuries again.