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Everything posted by Provost
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Ray Ferraro calls out Sekeres.
Provost replied to MoneypuckOverlord's topic in General Hockey Discussion
Saying this is "calling him out" is pretty random and is inventing a narrative as badly or worse as Sekeres does. This doesn't show Ferraro "calling him out" even remotely. It just suggests Ferraro doesn't agree with him. I am happy not to listen to Sekeres anymore and happily listen to the Donnie and Dhali show instead with an occasional Rintoul filtered in when he has a good guest. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
There is an almost zero percent chance he gets cleared by the police... it doesn't really work that way. Unless they gathered some clear evidence that the woman was lying, it would be Crown prosecutors simply saying they aren't laying charges because of no likelihood of conviction. Then the civil case has to wind its way through the courts. Like you said, even absent that no one is going to want an underperforming player for high dollars. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
There is a lot of spec between not getting full value and getting negative value… which is what Virtanen is. He had had one really food 6 week stretch in his career ( the middle of the pre-Covid season), and has otherwise a 3rd line winger. He wasn’t even producing well as a 4th line winger this past season and then add on being in the middle of a sexual assault investigation. He is also owed $3.4 million this year in real dollars. Juolevi is more comparable to Patrick and still probably needs a sweetener on our end to best other offers. -
Apparently that was the discussion at the exit interviews. It just opens up more possibilities rather than a certainty it happens. Wingers are more available than centres so there is sense to it. Also having a deeper lineup would help us win games rather than the opposing top D knowing exactly which players to focus on
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He did... it was reported that he was comfortable at centre when he had to fill in: https://thehockeywriters.com/canucks-miller-thriving-pettersson-absence/ ... and it was reported by several local media that it was discussed at his exit interview so the team had flexibility to figure out how to fill holes in the offseason.
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It makes sense from his perspective. He have an over abundance of bottom 6 players right now until more veteran contracts expire. With the signalling of Miller wanting to play more centre, that really limits Jasek’s chances of making the big club If it is a choice between the AHL or Europe, I can see the attraction of the latter.
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[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I think it is crazy to think Patrick for Virtanen is a fair trade. Even pre-allegation, Virtanen had no value at his production and cap hit. Add in the bad optics of bringing in an alleged rapist to your organization and no one is going to want to touch Jake even if you waived him… at least until the situation is cleared up in a year or two. He is probably going to be playing in the KHL next year if anywhere after being bought out. Patrick for Juolevi probably doesn’t get the deal done as there would be teams who would likely offer more. -
So many “Experts” here and shocking levels of ignorance. I would no longer be considered an expert as things have changed a lot, but I have in the distant past, investigated numerous sexual assaults. This is a really sensitive issue for me because I still take counselling over guilt for not being able to get convictions in many cases where it was pretty evident that a sexual assault occurred and I feel like I let down many people who came to me as it was my job to help them. It is shockingly difficult to successfully get through the courts and shockingly hard on victims. There isn’t likely to be a resolution anytime soon. It taking a few months isn’t unusual at all and most certainly doesn’t speak to the relative merits of the case either way. They will be especially careful due to it being a high profile case. Conviction rates for sexual assaults are really low…. Really, really low. That is in addition to really low reporting rates by victims. Mainly because there are often not witnesses and often not enough physical evidence just due to the nature of the interactions. Very few of them are the types you see in movies where a stranger drags a woman into the bushes and attack her, most are by attackers known to the victim. “It was consensual” is the standard defence as it negates most physical evidence that exists. It is highly probable (because it is what happens in most cases) is that Crown will find that there isn’t a high enough likelihood of conviction so they won’t proceed with charges. That doesn’t prove Virtanen innocent or guilty nor does it prove the girl was telling the truth or lying. It means that it isn’t likely that a judge/jury would find that the evidence is “beyond a reasonable doubt”. You can be a grown up and give them both the benefit of the doubt if that is the way the criminal case proceeds. You can even be grown up enough to believe that both of them are telling the truth. She could have absolutely given lots of signals about not consenting that Jake entirely missed. He could be like a bunch of posters on this thread who appear to have zero understanding about what consent actually is and believe that unless a girl starts kicking and eye gouging that she is consenting. He would be wrong… but that could have been how he interpreted things at the time. Most women don’t fight with their attackers because it is just not usually an effective strategy. This is a man about a 100lbs heavier than her and is in peak physical condition. The outcome of fighting sexual attackers often ends up with a victim just being sexually assaulted AND badly beaten up or killed. Maybe that helps the possibility of a conviction down the road… but who is thinking about that when they are worried about being seriously harmed or killed? The reason MANY sexual assault victims use the civil side is because the burden of proof is lower. The criminal courts are designed with a threshold that tries to make sure ZERO innocent people are criminally convicted… even if that means 100 guilty people go free. That is a design and not a bug. In civil court the burden of proof is only “on the balance of probabilities”. Meaning is it more likely than not that the person did it. That is still a high standard of proof in a sexual assault case because unless one party or the other comes across as entirely unreliable, there aren’t many ways to decide who is telling the truth. Both parties will be well coached by their respective counsel to not likely make mistakes in testimony that would jeopardize their case. None of this is likely going to play out in a short enough timeframe for the team to have an answer before next season. That means either the league lets the team terminate the contract or he has to get bought out. The league can terminate the contract and then Virtanen can appeal it with an arbitrator deciding or even not hearing the appeal until the civil process goes forward and there is some sort of resolution. The dollars and cap hit are low enough that it would probably be way more expensive to fight a contract termination than just to let it go away and take the year or two to resolve itself through the civil system.
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[Report] Canucks announce coaching staff updates
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Don't know anything about Gustafson aside from a quick Google that he was with the Winterhawks for a long time. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
That is reasonable IF you think that any of the three of them can hold down the 2nd pairing LD job and that is a pretty tall order. I think we need another legit top 4 D. Not sure if Edler is ready and willing to be a depth guy who doesn't play every day yet. We played him 25 minutes a night and asking him to take 1/3rd of a 3rd pairing job the next season is a pretty big drop off. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I absolutely agree about the usage. Post Covid (or even before when the chance of making the playoffs was already really remote... we should have been seeing what we had in the kids and if any of them stood out. We know what Chatfield and Brisebois are already. We don't know what Juolevi, Rafferty, and Rathbone are yet and it would sure be nice to know that before this offseason and having to make decisions on our roster and whether we need to limp along with Edler for another year or another replacement. As it stands "maybe" we can slot in both Juolevi and Rathbone into that 3rd pairing LD slot and have them switch out and each play 40-50 games next season to see how they do. I don't think going into the season with them filling both the 2nd pairing and 3rd pairing spots is a terribly great idea. No idea what will work out as of yet, I suspect we are going to sign Edler again. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
You keep digging yourself deeper. I referenced shift starts by zone which is a drastically larger sample size because it doesn’t ignore the 80% of shifts (on the fly and neutral zone) like the tiny dZone start % which excludes almost all a players shifts. You are 100% wrong on your sample size argument. Also, if you are wriggling and trying to argue that faceoffs are the only metric… (which again, as re a tiny subset of the amount of time a player is on ice)… it goes opposite your original point about it illustrating how a coach uses a player. In your world, a player who gets on the ice and gives up 2 shots in 5 seconds that their goalie has to freeze or gets pinned in their own end and ices the puck… they get extra credit for the resulting defensive zone face-offs… and furthermore, you are arguing that is indicative of how a coach deploys them even though the coach has little or no control over it in those situations? Utter nonsense. Number of shifts and shift starts are what the coach controls… FYI, the Canucks had 30 icings against when Juolevi was on the ice last season. Just that one number where the coach had zero ability to choose deployment is more than the 5v5 ozone and dZone % difference that you were railing on about. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
OldNews trying to explain away obvious and empirically proveable lies… He also seems to not understand that watching him flail, obfuscate, and lie is way more satisfying for me than him just being quiet when he is shown to be wrong. It shows that he knows very well that he is full of it and knows that I know it… but is so fragile that he needs to try to get validation from you random internet people he hopes he might be able to fool. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Ahhh so more outright lying. Now you are changing your metric to all strengths and all shifts vs. The 5v5 that you originally used to come up with your 44.1% oZone starts for Juolevi as your entire original argument. You know that you are ridiculous. You can create a smarmy wall of text to try to wriggle out from yet again being proven wrong… but lying is lying. If you were referring to all his shifts you wouldn’t have used the 44.1% number which you did and which is not relative of all his shifts like you are suddenly claiming you really meant. Also… this may be news to you, but shifts starting on the fly do not start with faceoffs or stoppages as you are saying. That is more nonsense and just shows how much you parrot a couple of random numbers all the time without understanding what they actually represent. Claiming that playing almost the least average minutes per game of any D in the NHL (and against weak competition) is “really getting the hard minutes” is a stretch even for your tortured logic. It is amazing how far you will go to spread manure instead of just admitting you were wrong. Let it be known everyone that according to the new dictionary of NHL terms coined by OldNews… being sheltered no longer means being played fewer minutes or against weaker opposition. It may seem counter intuitive if you pay attention or have ever watched a hockey game… but apparently, the players that the coach puts out least are really the ones he trusts most. For example, Green using Edler 25-27 minutes a game means that he has NO trust in the player. So says Oldnews at least… -
Overpaying for average UFAs is not a path to success. We already did that for Myers, giving him top pairing money. We have possible cheap short term bodies in Edler and Hamonic who can fill holes over the next 1-3 years. That buys us time to find replacements. Mayrb we can find one in trade… maybe we get one in this year’s draft. Larsson isn’t the guy to spend all your bullets on.
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[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
You are saying opposite things. I posted that it simply isn’t true that Juolevi’s minutes were lowered due to Covid… because they just weren’t. He played more than he did earlier in the season. He didn’t earn more minutes when he was healthy either. You are saying outright that he was sheltered, when that is what my post literally explained as I was responding to the demonstrably false premise that Juolevi was “the opposite of sheltered”. I have no idea how Juolevi would play in future seasons. That doesn’t change the fact he was heavily sheltered this season. There hasn’t been anything so far to suggest he is suddenly going to break out. If he does, great. In the meantime I think he has pretty clearly been surpassed on the depth chart by Rathbone. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
As always, the OZone Start % is effectively useless and absolutely should never be used to make the assumption that you keep erroneously leaping to. You know what you are presenting is garbage meant to mislead people (or should know that by now)... but you keep doing it. Juolevi had exactly 6 more dZone starts than oZone starts (at 5v5 which that stat is measuring) the entire season... 33 oZone Starts to 39 dZone starts... 1 more every 4 games he played. That tells you almost nothing about his usage and how hard his minutes were. He had 310 neutral zone of on the fly starts which are entirely ignored by that stat... .those represent. 10.2% of his shifts started in the dZone 8.6% of his shifts started in the oZone 81.2% of his shifts started on the fly or in the neutral zone ... your 44.1% oZone start stat to show he was the "opposite" of sheltered were 1.6% of his shifts difference... and again, equal just 0.25 shifts per game difference between ozone and dzone. He also had a sum total of 18:22 on the PK for the season, or an average of 48 seconds each game he played. He played just 13:12 minutes a game on average for the season... which is the definition of a sheltered 3rd pairing D man. He ranked 280 (out of 317) in average ice time amongst all NHL D for the season. He was one of the least used D in the entire league... Being used less minutes that almost every D man in the league CERTAINLY gives a pretty darn good indication that the coach didn't trust him. Certainly a more compelling argument than the fake "well he played 0.25 more shifts in the dZone per game than he did in the oZone so he is the opposite of sheltered!" nonsense. His minutes played did NOT drop post Covid due to fatigue/weight loss like you said... he played more minutes per game in April/May than he did in January... his month by month average only changed by a few seconds variation. He wasn't relied on more or less pre and post Covid It is entirely ludicrous to compare Juolevi's 39 dZone starts over the entire season to Edler's 159 or Schmidt's 152.. or even Quinn Hughes 87. Even if you adjust for games played... Juolevi comes up with the 2nd least dzone starts per game amongst all our D used for more than 1 game... ahead of only Hughes. Even Rathbone and Chatfield had more dZone shifts per game played than Juolevi had. -
[Rumour]. Zadorov in Chicago.. may not stick .
Provost replied to SilentSam's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
If they don’t qualify him, getting him on a cheaper deal could make sense for us… though with so many teams losing a D in expansion, he could actually get a decent offer. We have the small shifty guys already in Hughes and Rathbone… some complementary bruisers are fine for us. Imagine a balanced D like: Hughes-Hamonic Zadorov-Ristolainen Rathbone-Myers Juolevi-Bowie Decent size, speed, skill, toughness when you put it all together. -
I have been really impressed by Hansen’s interviews. He clearly still follows the game (and the team) closely. He also seems to not just have a player’s perspective and has good thoughts on cap management and roster building. I could see him getting involved in management rather than coaching at some point. It is hard to remember that these are really young guys still even if they are old hockey players. Hansen is just 35, so I can imagine after a couple of years sitting at home enjoying post hockey life he would want to look for some challenges and a new career.
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[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
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[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Whoops I actually didn’t pay attention. I wouldn’t do the puck swap either… I was reading the OJ for Patrick swap straight up. -
[Rumour] Nolan Patrick requests trade
Provost replied to 86Viking's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I would do that for sure. Both guys have had injury problems and haven’t done that much in the league… Patrick has done more but also has mor red flags. This is the sort of deal where you buy really low instead of buying at a player’s high point. Edit… I clearly wasn’t paying enough attention. I would do the player swap straight up, not swap picks as well. -
Yep... everyone understands it is a business and there are cap considerations. Having guys who love the team leave pissed off is just bad. Players talk, players spend the summers skating with other players from other teams... having them pissed off trash talking our brass because of being disrespected hurts the prospects of signing other players and at a reasonable price. It isn't hard to say "Hey, we are in a huge cap crunch... we can't afford what you can probably get on the open market. Here is the neighbourhood for term and money we have for you... go poke around in free agency and see what is out there for you. If you can find a situation that is better for you, great thank you so much for your great contribution to the team and good luck with your new team. Circle back to us on July 1st before we have to make other decisions if you can't find a deal you like more than what we can afford... we would love to have you back." It seems like a no brainer really. Do you think Stecher moves to Detroit if have has a 3 year, $1.5 million per offer from the Canucks? If they Canucks just didn't want him even at that bargain basement price... that is just dumb. The guy played 30 minutes a night for a stretch and was still above water on his stats. He was probably our best defensive D man (because Tanev was only there part of each season), and he was clearly a leader who was put out in all the press conferences and media availability. The same tactic could have been used for Toffoli and Tanev. Here is the price we can afford... we need to know early July 1st if you want to come back at that price. Tanev probably moves on because "our" price probably doesn't come close to Calgary's. If we weren't offering Toffoli a $4 million x 4 year contract... that again is just crazy. Regardless, if the players did get better offers and moved on... they wouldn't have reason to be that upset with us because they made the choice. They can be annoyed that Virtanen got the money instead of them... but it isn't disrespectful on our part to our players.
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Nope... under 26 they get bought out for only 1/3rd so it is insanely cheap. About a $50k cap hit to us this year if we buy him out and about $500k next year. It is really the only option unless the league lets us off the hook with terminating him. Any court/civil case is going to be a long time, so we would miss the buyout window hoping for a chance at terminating him.
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Not almost every time. It is supposed to just be one bullet in your magazine… not the entire arsenal