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Everything posted by Provost
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What are you on about? Your argued that a bunch of expensive overpaid veterans like Myers were moved last deadline to support that he would be in demand next deadline. Your “evidence” was listing a bunch of good players, much better than him, with contracts as little as 1/3rd of his who were traded. Your piss poor attempt at a list of comparable players to Myers literally proves the opposite of your point. You don’t even rank as an “amature” (sp)…
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[Signing] Canucks sign Akito Hirose
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Except because the cap has been so flat, there are no teams struggling to get to the floor. Arizona has almost $20 million in cap used for those big LTIR contracts that aren’t costing them a cent. Even signing league minimum players to fill the rest of their roster, they will be well above the floor. No one needs Myers for cap purposes. For them, they just have to decide what gives them more for their very valuable cap space. They can take on more LTIR contracts which are free in terms of real dollars and get big sweeteners… or they can take Myers on waivers and not get a sweetener. I am not sure where the idea Myers could get a high pick at the deadline took on steam, again not impossible… but even a $3 million cap hit is big dollars for an insurance 3rd pairing D who can play (not well) up in the lineup if there are injuries. Contending teams are capped out and looking for bargains. Luke Schenn was above him on the roster, cost close to league minimum, played a playoff style of game, and had a lot of Cup experience. He got a 3rd round pick. Ot isn’t impossible that they think Myers brings more than the $1 million value they would be paying him and the flexibility to weaponize that $6 million in cap space, but that is a big if. -
Putting guys with as low as $2.25 million cap hits that had 50% retained to make them cost a pro-rated $1.25 million to their receiving team shows you don’t have much of a valid counter argument against the fact cheaper players were the ones desired last deadline and not expensive overpaid veterans being wanted at the deadline. Aside from Klingberg, those are all very good players and being paid far less than Myers… You just can’t count on Myers being a desirable trade target even at a $3 million cap hit at the deadline.
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Not a lot of overpaid veterans even with 3 million cap hits were moved at the deadline. The value was in the cheap players. Teams will still be at the cap ceiling at the deadline and want to spend any space they have on upgrades and cheap insurance… not expensive depth players. There will be entirely free LTIR contracts (in terms of real cash) they can take and get assets to do so… why take $6 million in cap hit for nothing?
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Yes, he has to play ball to trade him, it isn’t impossible for a team to take him on waivers but I don’t know that anyone lets us off the hook like that. Arizona doesn’t need his cap to hit the floor so why take him on? It would likely take a sweetener, though not a major one, but that requires a trade.
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[Speculation] NY Rangers looking to shake things up
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Don't do either. Just let it ride out for the remainder of the contract at this point or see if you can get rid of him in the last year by retaining salary once there isn't a lot of term left if he isn't on LTIR or something. Price is prohibitively high at the moment. He was better than expected two seasons ago and worse than expected last season... who knows if he bounces back to be better next year if he has an actual competent partner. He isn't going to be worth his salary, but he has a good chance of being worth more than the price tag of moving him. -
I don’t expect it to work out this way, but there is actually a window around training camp for us to make improvements to the team. It is highly unlikely that we will know the answer on either Pearson or Poolman until at least training camp time. We will need to shed salary earlier in the summer assuming they will come back. If we find out they will be shut down for the whole season then…. We will suddenly have LTIR space to use. Plus, it is “possible” we manage to unload Myers in late September to a team that wants players but doesn’t want to spend money. Myers has to play ball on that though. We could conceivably have $10+ million in space at the end of the summer. That lines up perfectly when teams are shedding salary at training camp. No other teams will likely have the cap space AND dollars available at that point. We could end up with some decent players who have been pushed out of their lineups by cheaper competition. A veteran 3C seems like exactly the type of player that would shake loose.
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I think you should slot players into roster spots to see the holes rather than just list them. Allocate what sort of money each roster spot costs for most teams. Poolman coming back to be a top 4D who can play with either Hughes or OEL seems pie in the sky, he wasn’t doing that when he wasn’t hurt and missing vast swaths of time. In a $90 million cap world… I am not sure where you find a top 4RHD for $3-5 million. Consider Myers was an “iffy” top 4 guy (many around hockey considered him a #5… and they were right) and cost $6 million when the cap was much less than $90 million. That is $6.6 million to cost the same percentage of a $90 million salary cap. So quickly your $17 million for 10 players EVEN IF the cap goes beyond projections all the way to $90 million…. Goes down to $11 million for 9 players. If you project a more conservative and realistic cap increase of $5 million between 23-24 and 24-25. That is $88.5… so you are likely looking at filling out 9 spots for a $1 million average salary. From that you need to find another top 6 forward, a good 3C a back up goalie, more 3rd and 4th liners… and more NHL calibre D. That money just runs out faster than you can fill spots. The idea of having half the roster being players at or near league minimum just isn’t a recipe for success.
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Except the timing in the real world isn't likely to work out like that. The buyout window is right after the playoffs finish and end before free agency, this is so that players have a chance to actually find a new team. You also can't buy out an injured player. The chances of both Pearson and Poolman being declared healthy before the end of June, or even that they will be medically ruled out for the entire next season so you can use their LTIR on replacement players.... is remote at best. Not knowing those things mean you have to make moves to be cap complaint in the event they "might" come back at the start or during the season. You can't spend the money you would need to fit them under the cap otherwise, You can't be in a position in December with Pearson being declared healthy but no way to fit him under the cap. Teams at the end of the summer have already made their moves and won't have cap space to add significant salary. The only realistic solution is to trade or buy out players before July 1st to become cap compliant including both Pearson and Poolman's contracts. Then do nothing in free agency as you don't have any cap space. Then "hope" that by training camp you have some certainty on their status for the season so that you could put them on LTIR and use that freed up cap space to pick up players that shake loose from other teams due to cap constraints. Inevitably every year some decent player making $3-4 million gets pushed out of the roster by a cheaper youngster. You can also waive Myers after his bonus is paid and "hope" someone takes on that salary. Again, that doesn't help you in time to make moves in free agency.. it just might give you some space to make minor moves during the heavy waiver period and roster shuffling teams have around training camp. Myers isn't great, but you probably aren't getting a Myers level replacement back... just cap space that could come in handy at some point in the season if an opportunity arises.
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I never said any of that... what utter nonsense. I said I don't expect ALL of our prospects to be able to be in the lineup a year from now and contributing in any meaningful way to suddenly turn us into a winning team. None of them are blue chip prospects like Petterson and Hughes were that have any likelihood of providing significant surplus on the ice while on a cheap ELC. Having those is how you actually win. Not interchangeable parts on half your roster that are no different than what is on the waiver wire through the season. If the suggested plan to be cap compliant is contingent on half our roster a single season from now being made up of prospects in our system... I don't think people should get their hopes up for playoff appearances, never mind having Stanley Cup aspirations. Every team faces the same salary cap and the bulk of them produce better results. Heck, we can barely tread water with teams that are bottoming out and trying to tank while spending tens of millions less than us. The team isn't good, and the point of the above posts was that there isn't a magic bullet like people are suggesting coming with cap space. We are yet again in a position where money expiring is going to be used to give raises to the few actually efficient contracts we have on the books.
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[Speculation] NY Rangers looking to shake things up
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I forget, are we trying to win or trying to develop players for a window down the road. None of the guys you mention are proven NHL calibre players… never mind pushing a veteran like OEL out of a spot. I don’t know if you appreciate how different it is to be asked to play the hardest matchup minutes against top opponents vs. Being protected in sheltered minutes. None of those kids is close to even an underperforming OEL, heck they aren’t even as good as Myers who would be an excellent 3rd pairing guy… but falters badly as a top 4. -
[Speculation] NY Rangers looking to shake things up
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
So we buy out the player and get a little relief the first year… then not much the last two years of his contract… and then a big cap penalty for years after he would otherwise be off the books. How much better is the team going to be buying him out and then trying to find a replacement for the just over $2 million you are saving in 2025 and 2026? The buyout doesn’t make sense unless he is performing worse than what you could spend the same cap dollars on for his buyout plus a replacement. OEL underperformed his contract… but he is better than a $2-3 million dollar guy we could find on the market from that cap savings. That isn’t even considering the penalty of almost $2 million that would go on for years afterwards from the buyout. -
Saying wins per cap dollar spent isn’t crazy. No other team spending so much had so poor of results. Benning’s accomplishment was that he was able to field teams that weren’t quite bad as teams like Arizona and Ottawa. Of course they were budget teams with tens of millions less in budget to work with. You keep going on about how many “locked” in players Benning inherited. That is nonsense. On contracts with more than a year or two of term left, he had the Sedins, Burrows, Hansen, Higgins, and Edler. All those players had positive value and produced well on the ice and brought in returns if traded. Higgins was the only contract that was eventually bought out at the end, but he made a whopping $2.5 million. Those “locked in” players from Gillis gave Benning his best ever season in his whole tenure. The more that left, the worse the team got. You are crowing about Benning. Talk about leaving “locked in” contracts. He has left many long term contracts on players with negative value on the market. I take the Sedins over OEL and Myers… then you have Ferland, Poolman, Garland, Boeser… plus all the players he signed and then spent top draft picks to get rid of.
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So you assume a bunch of guys who are fringe players will all work out but also not so well that they sign for much money. Then you assume the cap goes up by more than even the most optimistic projections. Even with that, you suggest that $14.4 million will get you two big contracts, a medium contract and another fringe player, which doesn’t add up, a big contract isn’t $4-5 million… especially if the cap is so high. Certainly not big enough to find a top 4D and a top six winger plus two other players. If the cap is $90 million, then Petterson and Hronek aren’t signing for $10 and $7 million…. They are signing for a combined $19 million or more instead. When you boil it all down, we will basically will have the space to find similarly priced replacements for Myers and Pearson (with slight raises accounting for cap inflation) and all the other bodies stay they same with random bottom end players continuing to fill out the roster. So unless we can magically find a ton of value from the Pearson/Myers replacements on the UFA market… how exactly is our team going to be winning any Cups, or even a playoff team? We don’t have blue chip prospects coming in to play significant roles. Your capped out suggested roster is: Mikheyev-Petterson-Boeser $4-5 million winger-Miller-Kuzmenko Podkzin-Aman-Garland Kravtsov-Joshua-PDG League minimum depth forward Hughes-$6-7 million UFA D OEL-Hronek Hirose-Johansen League min D - League min D Demko $2 million backup Well, plan the parade…. Say optimistically we get Lekkerimaki as a middle six winger by then and push one of our young guys to the 2nd line. We still have to find a legitimate 3rd D pairing and those guys cost $2-3 million each at least.
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Literally no GM during Benning’s tenure had fewer wins per cap dollar spent than Benning did. Of the very few teams with worse records than us, they were budget teams spending $20-30 million less on their rosters. You don’t have to invent any imagined metrics, it is sport and success is measured in wins and losses. He ran the team for close to a decade and we were near the bottom of the league the entire time, it was winning fewer games by the end than when he started, you can’t blame that on Gillis. When he left, the team was in worse cap trouble; and with a worse prospect pool than he inherited (at least he had Horvat from Gillis… when he left there weren’t any Horvat level prospects)… that is stunningly hard to do when you are finishing near the bottom of the league every year. Gillis failed in drafting, but he was also picking late. His only top ten pick was a home run, Horvat is a top 5 pick in a redraft that year. Heck, Benning’s main success was right away when he took over with the “terrible” Gillis roster, before he started dismantling it. The more moves he made, the worse the results on the ice. His best attribute was drafting and he was below average in that as well. He whiffed on half his top picks, didn’t unearth any late round gems, and managed to find NHL players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds just a little below historical averages. He was a terrible GM and was given way more leeway to dig out than other GMs who couldn’t get close to a .500 record, never mind playoffs and success there. Notice how no one is beating down the door to hire him.
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Yes, we have looked and done the math… you obviously haven’t. $33.4 million in cap space with only 10 players signed, and needing to add 13 roster players out of that. Take away around half that entire cap space with around $17 million for just Petterson and Hronek, and that is probably being conservative. It could be at high as $19 million or more if the cap is jumping up significantly. $11.5 for Petterson and $7.5 for Hronek isn’t unreasonable market value now, never mind if the cap jumps up inflating salaries. Mikheyev-Petterson-Boeser XX-Miller-Kuzmenko XX-XX-Garland XX-XX-XX XX Hughes- XX OEL - Hronek XX-Poolman XX-Brisebois Demko XX That roster leaves $16.4 million for 11 players. Assume $6 million for a lower end top 4D (Myers cost us $6 million years ago with a lower cap and he was considered by many in hockey to be a #5 at the time). $4 million for an unspectacular value middle six winger. $6.4 million left for 9 more players… Even if you hope for a huge $4-5 million dollar cap jump you are looking at half your roster being kids or low salary fringe NHLers at $1 million average. If the cap does go up that much, signing players will also be more expensive right in lockstep and raise the numbers for signing players. There is no magic bullet on the way to fix this…we don’t have a bunch (or any) blue chip prospects coming up who will likely play significant roles by then while on ELCs.
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You forgot us throwing in a 2nd round pick….
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Can we start a go fund me for Bedard to go to the NCAA?
Provost replied to canuckster19's topic in Canucks Talk
It wound have been a nice story to get drafted by the team he followed as a kid… but allegiances always change the moment you put on a new sweater. How many players get drafted by their hometown team… or get drafted by another team and flee back to their hometown right away. He isn’t going to hold out and sign an unmatchable offer sheet with us. -
[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It pains me to see what a good position Chicago is in. $40+ million in cap space this year and the financial means to actually spend to the cap unlike all the other teams with cap space. Not only Bedard, but 19 picks in the first three rounds of the next three drafts mean that unless they whiff on most of their picks... they will have a full pipeline of players coming in on ELCs for almost a decade to fill their roster spots with cheap contributors. They will have players drafted three years from now that will be able to marinate in the AHL and come in a few years later ready to play more significant roles. If they use their massive amounts of cap space this year to take on good, if slightly expensive players that other teams are trying to shed... they can invent a playoff calibre team from scratch while accruing EVEN MORE futures by doing it. Lots of Garland/Beauvillier/Bear level players that will be effectively free or have sweeteners attached this offseason. -
[Speculation] NY Rangers looking to shake things up
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It would be interesting to see how they intend on accomplishing this. Their top salaries have NMC and they don't have dead weight as they are the ones producing for their team. They just need the cap to go way up. They have Lafreniere and Kakko as trade bait, but what salary do they move out to fit money coming back? Miller would obviously be a big addition to them and fit their needs, they may just find that they can't afford the luxury of as much D depth as they have and need to allocate more money towards the forwards at the expense of their defence. With Trouba and Fox getting paid that much, and Lindgren providing good value at a reasonable price... they might not be able to afford to keep both K'Andre Miller and Schneider with big raises due. If they could convince Trochek to waive his NMC or move Chytil, I guess there is a hockey deal to be made that does something like swap one of them and Schneider for Miller and Rathbone... we downgrade at centre and upgrade on D and they do the opposite. When Schneider gets his raise, the cap hits probably pretty much even out between those players. Can't really see it happening though. -
Gabriel Landeskog to miss 23-24 Season
Provost replied to greenbean30's topic in General Hockey Discussion
No... 85% success rate of the cartilege taking and the repair holding up after 10-15 years. https://www.orthotexas.com/cartilage-transplants-restoration-for-an-injured-knee/#:~:text=However%2C it can take up,to 15 years after surgery. -
Gabriel Landeskog to miss 23-24 Season
Provost replied to greenbean30's topic in General Hockey Discussion
I had a choice between using cadaver cartilege or a piece of my own hamstring when reconstructing my knee, my doctor used both surgeries. I chose the hamstring and regretted it as my hamstring on that side just isn't as strong and I get cramps in it regularly. It isn't unusual at all to use tissue from dead people in surgeries. The recovery for this surgery is more than a year, but light exercise and pretty normal life pretty quickly after a couple months. -
[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Well, the team has talked about trying to clear cap since the first day they came on the job… and have only made the cap situation worse, so I don’t k is that this is idle media speculation. Heck, it is public knowledge from Boeser’s agent that he has been given permission to find interest in his client. He said finding a deal would require the Canucks agreeing to retain significant cap. We haven’t even been able to give Boeser away. Garland and Myers have also been long reported to being on the block by many sources… and that fits with JR and Alvin’s comments about trying to clear cap. -
I gave him until the disaster of an offseason when we lost Toffoli, Markstrom, and Tanev while signing/acquiring Virtanen, Holtby, and Schmidt. He had a chance that year to undo some mistakes and build on some really good reputation we were building around the league after the bubble play. The team was heralded as the most likely Canadian team to hoist the Cup next. He ended up batting absolutely zero that summer and on top of that, did it in a way that disrespected well regarded leaders like Tanev and I that impacted the locker room. If they wanted to move on from Tanev, that is fair. Just tell him that he has earned his chance to look into free agency and that you don’t think you can match what he can get on the open market. Offer him something you can afford, like a 2 year deal at $3 million per saying that is all you can do while still building a winning roster… but wish him well and say he can circle back when he sees what is out there if he wanted to. Doing it that way doesn’t piss off the entire team.
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[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I guess I have a different perspective in that I believe the salary cap exists and that I want the Canucks to contend for a Cup at some point in my lifetime. Different strokes for different folks I guess. If they had successfully cleared enough cap to afford these guys and build a team around them, I have no heartache with them being on the team. They are good players. None of that happened, so barring a miracle our roster will be worse next year and still be capped out for years going forward by just giving raises to guys like Petterson and Hronek.