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Everything posted by Provost
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[Proposal] Nolan Patrick on the move?
Provost replied to DownUndaCanuck's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
That isn’t a fair comparison. Take Jake’s first 184 games and he was performing at a little more than half the pace of Patrick. Plus Patrick is a centre which is much more valuable. Jake doesn’t have any real value at his contract, and Patrick does. -
I have been pushing for Sutter to move for a long time. I think that ship has sailed. As much as it is a business, you don’t trade a guy while his little kids and pregnant wife all came down with Covid because he was exposed at your workplace. That would be a really bad look for his friends/teammates you still keep on your team.
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Ya, I don’t think he will ever have a huge mean streak but at his size he really doesn’t have to. He just needs to land one good hit on most forwards to knock them out of a series or have them banged up enough to be less effective. Even though I think the KHL is a way lesser league than most people ever think... 3 extra years of developing and playing huge minutes has to have had an impact. As would having a coach that gives him a little leash unlike Willie D.
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[Discussion] Adding at the Deadline?
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Reading the actual post and not just the headline has been known to help your level of comprehension. -
It actually isn’t as bad as it looks once you add it all up. Same as the Detroit move, this one sent a bunch of real dollars back to Toronto by sending Noesen their way. About a pro rated 1/4 of $1.375 retained for Foligno is $343k. Minus 20% escrow equals about $260k in real dollars. Noesen is $925k in the minors and about 1/4 pro rated of that is $244k. I don’t actually know if escrow is owed on 1 way deals this season even if players are in the minors. I recall something coming out saying it was... so that could make it is little less. So San Jose spent maybe $20-30k to buy a 4th round pick and Detroit it had spent about $120-130k for the same thing yesterday.
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Well some owners are willing to spend a little jingle to buy 4th round picks. it is a pretty iffy lottery ticket though, a 3rd has a pretty decent chance of becoming an NHLer... once you get to a late 4th, that is just a long shot. On the other hand, those kind of picks might be exactly what is used as currency to pick up players who can’t be protected in expansion.
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Was glad to hear Benning mention trying to sign Tryamkin in his recent interview. I hope it is a multi-year deal. It would suck to get him back and give him meaningful minutes only to see him walk as a free agent in a year. 3x $2 million seems like a reasonable risk/reward. You get most of his prime seasons locked up at the cost of a #6D, if he doesn’t pan out you are basically overpaying a 7th D or he goes back to Russia and we are off the hook. On the upside if you get a player who can play 15-20 minutes a night as a complementary guy who can maybe even play on the PK... that is a huge win.
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[Signing] Canucks re-sign Tanner Pearson
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
So, no. All of those number were already factored in beforehand. They knew there would be a significant bump in U.S. TV revenue when they were negotiating all of this last year. What wasn’t factored in was having empty buildings around the league until well into the 2021-22 season. All the discussions while revising the CBA were assuming we would be getting fans back in a material way by now in a lot of markets. Now we have the big Canadian ticket revenue markets talking about basically no one in the stands until the end of this calendar year. Ticket and other in person revenues make up about 2/3rds of HRR.... and that has been decimated. All that increased revenue you are talking about, if it all comes to fruition turn into about a $6.25 million increase to the cap. $400 million divided by the 50% players share divided by 32 teams. That sounds great until you factor in that the cap was already artificially high due to the players escalator clause. Escrow to start the 2019-20 season before COVID was already at 14.5% reflecting that the real salary cap was already way too high. The new TV money likely doesn’t really even get the cap back to $81.5 million even if you ignore the Covid issues. Then add in what will be 2 full seasons with mostly empty buildings and at least a billion dollars that will be owed by the players that needs to be paid back. Then add in the current artificial cap on escrow AND the new cap calculation using two averaged years of HRR instead of one.... Teams originally were thinking 2-3 years of flat cap. Now it is almost certainly 5-6 years or more of effectively flat cap to catch up. The economic situation is manifestly worse than it was 6-12 months ago when grappling with all these questions. Edit... I see Mll was typing pretty much the same thing at the same time I was. -
I actually like the Habs, barring us making a miracle run, they are the team I would most like to win the Cup.. I feel bad that they are getting some bad breaks. I still think they are making the playoffs and may even be a team that makes some noise there. Say if they go just 5 of 8 against bottom feeding Ott & Cal Then just 3 of 10 against the rest That gives them 16 points for 59 on the season. Throw a couple of loser points in there from OT losses and that is 61 points. We need 27 points in 19 games to beat that total. 13-5-1 is a hard road with a depleted roster.
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Before folks get too excited... keep in mind Montreal has 5 of their remaining games against Calgary. That means probably 10-12 guaranteed points between them. If Montreal falls apart, then Calgary is the beneficiary who would then be surpassing us. If Montreal doesn’t fall apart, they have 5 games against the worst performing team in the NHL over the last 10 games (Calgary) plus 3 more games against Ottawa. It is tough to imagine they won’t go above .500 against that opposition.
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We lost 3 in a row pre-Covid and are likely going to play a handful of our next games with half a roster made up of taxi squad and AHL players. I think Montreal is reasonably safe with the less they built up. They can feel cocky enough to think they are pretty likely to be playoff bound. It Woolf take something miraculous out of us or Calgary to catch up.
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These are solid 3rd pairing D... but where we are do we really need them? Season is lost so Vatanen doesn't make much sense. Is Mete a better option than Edler/Rathbone/Juolevi on the left side next year? I wouldn't take him just to force the team to expose Myers. If we have Mete you know the team will just use him for exposure.
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[Signing] Canucks re-sign Tanner Pearson
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I am really starting to enjoy listening to Jannik Hansen's radio hits, one of the best guys 650 has. He talks like a guy ready to take on a coaching/management role in the game. Really balanced and not too player centric... good grasp on the economics of the game. He would be an interesting player development guy, especially focussed on our European prospects. He played in the KHL, Finland, Sweden, and Denmark as well as in the WHL, AHL, and NHL so he would really have a good grasp on what it takes to transition. His take on the Pearson signing is pretty spot on. They are paying hoping he gets back to the 20 goal, 40 point level... if he doesn't it will be a contract they regret in a year or two. He was also spot on about Benning using the "good in the room" reasoning as just trying to sell the deal to the fans. He basically said, players come and go and other guys step up, so you need to pay guys for what they bring on the ice instead of how good they are in the room. https://www.sportsnet.ca/650/peoples-show/jannik-hansen-canucks-banking-pearson-bouncing-back/ -
[Discussion] Adding at the Deadline?
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Not even slightly... -
[Discussion] Adding at the Deadline?
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
I agree. For all the drafting faults of Gillis and Gilman.... you could be confident that they had at least thought through every possibility like this. Benning is more of a north-south grinder. He doesn’t see the plays developing like the best of his peers. -
[Signing] Canucks re-sign Tanner Pearson
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Haha, I wasn’t the only one that caught it then. -
[Signing] Canucks re-sign Tanner Pearson
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It should also be noted that Benning himself couldn’t defend the signing. On the 650 interview he said “veterans like that can help you win in the playoffs where you have to battle every 2nd night.” About 2 minutes later in the interview when asked about Pearson’s lack of production this year he said that this year’s schedule of playing almost every 2nd day doesn’t do favours for an older veteran guy like him. He also said that the public and media don’t always have all the information about a player and talked about intangibles. Pay a couple of of players on the roster for their intangibles sure, but that can’t be the excuse for every signing. Rightly or wrongly, he got spooked by the impact on the team chemistry/attitude of losing Tanev, -Markstrom, Stecher, and Toffoli to a lesser extent.... now he is gunshy of losing another veteran. If he valued intangibles as much as he says, why not keep Tanev and cut loose Virtanen last season? He didn’t even value the intangibles enough to give Tanev a call or an offer until all his other plans fell apart days after free agency started. There wasn’t a player more full of intangibles and important to the team chemistry as Tanev... that was pretty obvious when listening to any of the young players. If you are going to overpay for intangibles thst is the guy you do it on. This kind of inconsistent reactionary decision making is why people don’t think there is really a plan. Unfortunately we are one of the worst teams in the league, so keeping the group together isn’t a plan for success at this point.