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Provost

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Everything posted by Provost

  1. Well right now he just got waived... so playing in the NHL is better than not? No idea if they will just bring him back up with the Ekblad injury or have lost faith in him to the point where they waived him and kept Forsling on the roster even though there wasn't a cap crunch.
  2. Florida is in the unusual position of fighting for the top of their division and really this is a year for them to make some noise. Ekblad just went down with injury for the season and playoffs. If they decide they still want to compete instead of folding up shop... would they consider finding a defensive replacement? Myers is a RD, obviously nowhere near Ekblad... but he is at least a serviceable body that is higher end than some sort of waiver wire fill in. Could we fashion a trade where we take Stralman and Gudas plus a sweetener (like a 2nd or a top end prospect) in exchange for Myers? We need to take money back as they don't have a ton of cap space after this year, so taking back two of their D that both have 2 years of term lets them make that deal and have an even stronger defence next season. We get two serviceable guys and much shorter term liability. They both give us the minimum expansion eligible D to expose, and we still have extra protection slots to upgrade. We get a ton of cap space after next season. So a proposal: To Florida Myers To Vancouver Stralman Gudas 2nd round pick/high end prospect
  3. This might put Benn's value into perspective. Is he really better than Harrington who is currently on waivers?
  4. People keep coming up with fancy ways to say we need to play .750 hockey the rest of the season to even be in the mix. Edmonton is 8 games above .500 and we are 2 games below .500 Catching up 2 games on them doesn't really do much for our chances. We only have 19 games left to play.... if you take away those 6 games (with us winning 4 in regulation), we have 13 games and would still be 2 wins back of them and they would still have 2 games in hand.
  5. I am no Virtanen fan... but Gaunce was just a less skilled version of him. There is a reason he didn't stick in the NHL even after leaving the Canucks and is now playing in Sweden
  6. It is a really tough call. He is still a 2nd pairing D who can be used in all situations. On the other hand, if we are still going to be taking a step back next season is it better to see if Rathbone is ready and go with a couple of young guys? Or to pick up a younger top 4 D in the expansion process? Is this management (or the one that will be in place by the offseason) creative enough to get 1-2 top 4D prior to expansion with our extra available protection slots for a deep discount... and then flip them after expansion for a higher price once they aren't at risk of being lost? We could then gain assets AND then re-sign Edler as well. I think a 3rd pairing of Edler and Tryamkin next season could really be our solid 5v5 match up guys, making sure Hughes doesn't have to carry a huge workload outside the power play.
  7. They aren't allowed to sign a player who is already under contract with another team maybe?
  8. That carpet is heading to Siberia along with whoever put it there....
  9. ....and Montreal has 3 games in a row against the Senators coming up next, after having a week of rest due to Covid protocols.... with a 4th game against Ottawa that was scheduled for today postponed. Barring something unusual, you have to expect Montreal to win 3 of 4 out of those games.
  10. Actually the story was that his camp finally got a call (days after free agency started), saying that they might make an offer later if something else didn’t work out. He then made a deal with Calgary. Both Tanev and Benning gave pieces of that story publicly as I recall.
  11. Ummm, I can only assume you are just trolling at this point? The ones I listed aren’t all north of $7 million... half of them are under that, and that is just the list of the very highest contracts given out to UFA D in that time period for higher end top pairing guys. There are a bunch lower than Myers $6 million that were signed. Some of them are top pairing guys, and some of them 2nd pairing in the $4-6 million range. Heck, Tanev just signed for $4.5 million and is getting the 2nd most ice time of Calgary D. That is 2nd pairing contract value... not $6 million.
  12. That would be an easy defence to build around. Left side with the offensive play drivers... give them complementary big bodied defensive stalwarts. Tryamkin, Woo, etc... other similar guys on the right side if those two don’t work out.
  13. He wasn’t the boss. Aquilini was and still is.
  14. That is true. It isn’t impossible that we could have gotten him on a cheaper contract or less term. We probably would have had to give him a NMC for expansion, but we have the extra protection slot for that anyways. On the other hand, I probably would have only gone $4 million x 3 years for Tanev max at the time... and he probably earned more than that and deserved to cash in for his final contract. No hard feelings at all, the timing of it expiring was just a year too soon.
  15. This isn’t hindsight as it was my thoughts at the time. Re-Sign Toffoli and Stecher Let Markstrom and Tanev walk if their demands were too high. That would have cost us Virtanen, Hamonic, and probably meant a cheaper back up than Holtby. Maybe would have even needed to buy out a player if we wanted Schmidt... maybe not pretty close. The downside would have been that maybe Hoglander doesn’t get as good a chance if Toffoli is there. It would be hard to believe he wouldn’t have at least starter on the 3rd line even if Toffoli was there.
  16. I can imagine that they are going to try to load up with a couple of piece. I also just looked and Juulsen is on his conditioning stint. so maybe it is just a move to make roster room and waive the guy least likely to get picked up on waivers. That is a pretty big stretch because it isn't likely they value Forsling that highly to risk losing a veteran D man in Stralman who would be great depth for a playoff run.
  17. Do the work then and do up a list of all the UFA eligible D signed in the last 5 years to show that all the top ones are over $7 million. You keep saying it is true and provide nothing to back it up. Your entire points seems to be "well it hasn't really happened because there are two few players that fit my criteria to show it, but if it did happen... then that is absolutely what the players would be worth. Period." From the list I am looking at, that just doesn't fly. Just looking at the very top end elite Norris vote recipients, and they are in the $7-9 million range (not $11-12 million). There are only two guys in the entire league who signed above $10 million and they have two of the top worst value contracts in the NHL according to every list (Karlsson and Doughty), they are still very good D, just not worth their cap hit. Josi $9.059 3rd highest paid D in the league (signed right after winning the Norris) Brent Burns $8 million (right after getting 3rd in Norris voting... and just before winning the Norris) Carlson $8 million (regular top 5 in Norris votes, and Norris winner) Pietrangelo $8.8 million (right off of 4th place in Norris voting) Hedman $7.875 million (Norris winner and regular top 5 vote recipient) The above represent the absolute ceiling of the market as they are all top 5 D in the entire league as of when they signed. You work your way down the rest of the UFA D signings for more than Myers in the last 5 years and you drop under $7 million REALLY fast. Ekman Larson $8 million (also listed as one of the worst contracts in the league Vlasic $7 million (also on most of the worst contracts in the league lists) Spurgeon $7.575 million high end top pairing guy Seabrook $6.875 million Mcdonagh $6.75 million Giordano $6.75 million Faulk $6.5 million Fowler $6.5 million Krug $6.5 million Yandle $6.35 million Ellis $6.25 million Work your way down to #62 and I can assure you it drops well below $7 million.... it is well down into the low $5 million range, far below Myers. Your cut off is also really arbitrary as it assume that players who are RFAs are signing away all their UFA years at a big discount which just doesn't fly. It assumes agents and players are stupid and are undervaluing their players by signing long term deals that don't just take them to UFA status to cash in. So in a full 6 years of UFA D signings (including Josi who is extended for next year), from what I can see only 10 guys have signed in your $7 million plus range. That is amazing that there have been probably 100+ top pairing D in that span (it isn't the same 62 guys for 5 years straight) and so few meet your contract threshold for valuation.
  18. Sorry man.... 17 defencemen in the entire league make $7 million or more. So I did not say most guys who are better are making over $7 million. 62 top pairing D... only 17 of them making what you say top pairing D make. That means most of them (45) are making less. Most of them are UFA eligible age, and have had a kick at free agency or decided to sign contracts which used up UFA years. You have yet to show all the guys who are signing for those dollars you say they are worth.... certainly not more than a couple of outliers. From all the “actual” signings, top pairing D seem to be in a 5.25-8 million range over the last few years and the top #1 elite guys in the $8-9 million range. That is literally every single signing so far regardless of status. You can’t say that Provorov was underpaid because he was an RFA... when he was literally one of the highest paid D, UFA or otherwise in recent years. There is no evidence to support that at all.
  19. Myers has exactly 10 more 5v5 defensive zone starts over the entire season than Hedman. That is just over 0.25 shifts per game. More defensive starts also doesn’t equal more high danger chances. I already showed you that isn’t true. Despite only having 0.27 more shifts per game in the offensive zone. Myers has 12.46 high danger chances against per 60 minutes. Hedman has 9.33 Also, getting slightly more defensive starts doesn’t actually mean you are better at them. Suggesting Myers is anywhere in the stratosphere as Hedman is honestly ludicrous
  20. That is probably pushing it... but Myers at $4.5 most teams take. Myers at $6 million most teams pass... even teams really hard up for D improvements. Most folks don't even believe he will be taken in expansion.
  21. Well you can put a bunch of qualifiers on it to try to make an argument... but he is one of the top paid D in the league, paid as a #1D as it stands right now. Period. RFA are paid market rate compared with UFAs... that has been true for years now. There is no discount on 2nd and 3rd contracts. As a matter of fact, the market has paid younger RFAs MORE due to upside vs. UFA veterans who have comparatively better numbers. Show some evidence that isn't true to support your assertion. There are qualifiers the other way if we want to just invent things to change what actual objective reality in terms of salaries and dollars means. Since 2018, out of ALL free agent D signings... there have ONLY been FOUR who have been signed to higher cap hits than Myers... that includes RFA and UFA. Pietrangelo ($8.8 million), Krug ($6.5 million), Trouba ($8 million), Provorov ($6.75 million). Each one of those guys is miles better than Myers. Where are all the $11-12 million guys that have been signed in the same market conditions as Myers was? Show me the market that is giving D that kind of money. There are only two guys over $10 million in the entire league.... only 4 guys $9 million or more. Only 17 guys making $7 million or more.... 62 top pairing D and only 17 are making in the $7-12 million range you say they are worth. That just doesn't add up man. They aren't being signed to those dollars. Period. It isn't true. A lot of NHL D have been signed in the last three years (hundreds?)... but not one got more than $8.8 million. There are a bunch of guys who got signed for lower money in those years, under the same market conditions than Myers who are playing top pairing minutes. Of those four, you were buying more prime years of young guys Provorov, Trouba... whereas with Myers you are paying extra term for years in his mid 30's when players are expected to decline, so his contract looks even worse. Those two were RFAs and were amongst the highest paid D in recent years, entirely counter to your argument that RFAs and UFAs are "apples and oranges". UFA players who were superior to Myers got paid less. This coming season, Hughes who is a franchise elite #1D and not even in his prime will likely struggle to get a bridge deal with a seven at the start of it... in no universe is he going to get $11-12 million. You can take a guy who wasn't even a free agent and was just extended in Josi. Just over $9 million for an elite top pairing D. Another top pairing D in Petry got extended for $6.25 million. Anyone who argues either of these guys aren't top pairing D is out to lunch.
  22. Except he is literally tied for 28th highest paid D in the league. 31 teams x 2 top pairing D per team = 62 top pairing D. That means half the top pairing D are paid less than he is. He is paid not just like a top pairing, he is paid like a #1 D. The only reason I lower it to “only” paid like a top pairing instead of a #1 like he currently is...is due to inflation and the fact that some of those contracts were signed when the cap was lower than when he signed.
  23. High danger chances do account for those things. On ice save % is simply not a good indicator for how well a certain D is “helping the goalie see the pucks”. Which is what you claimed. Now you are changing your argument to say that high danger chances don’t represent things because player X is not the only one on the ice. Guess what... the same applies for on ice save %. Except even more so... that stat is worse because it also gets mixed up with a goalie’s ability. High danger chances remove the goalie from the equation, unlike on ice save %. High danger chances are are a fairly steady and repeatable stat for defenceless, which means that it is how they play regardless of what partners they have and what goalie is behind them. Myers has been above 10 high danger chances per 60 basically his entire career over 3 teams and with many different partners and goalies. That is just not a good defensive player. There were a couple exceptions, and those were like 2016 when he only played 11 games so the sample isn’t big enough for that. On ice save % is in fact just a lucky stat that is entirely dependent on a lot more variables than one specific player on the ice. Go look up “worst stats in the NHL” and you will see most analytics experts say it is one of the worst. It isn’t even a good stat for goalies, never mind removing it a step further and using it to show the effectiveness of a defence man. Every argument you are making for it (seeing shots, etc) are literally why expected goals or high danger chances is actually the better stat, because it actually counts shot quality. It counts for if it is in the paint vs. from the blue line... it accounts for if it is a rebound, etc. It corrects for basically everything a defenceman can actually impact with his defensive play. Sorry, Myers just isn’t good defensively... at least nowhere near his contract level. When he was signed here, basically every hockey pundit told people to be ready for that. He also isn’t good enough offensively to make up for that. He is above average offensively, but not nearly enough to be paid as a top pairing D like he currently is. He is a #4D being paid like a #2. If (when) he is exposed in expansion, he probably isn’t taken because of his contract.
  24. Well that is a deep misunderstanding of the stat and what it means. On ice save % has zero relationship with ozone/dZone starts. That is just flat out wrong. The statement that a player with more ozone starts should have a higher on ice save % just isn’t true. A player who starts more often in the dZone may have more shots against than someone who starts more in the ozone (that really isn’t true as the above post shows) but turning it into a save % literally is intended to correct for that and make them comparable. What difference does it make what zone a shift starts in as to whether a goalie saves a shot or not? It could actually be the reverse relationship than you are suggesting. If you start a shift in the dZone, all 5 of your players are in the zone helping defend the shot. If you start in the ozone, it is actually much more likely that if a shot against you happens, it is coming off an off man rush because you will have your forwards trapped up the ice.... those shots are much more likely to end up as goals. On ice save % is just a bad stat to use to compare skaters. There are too many other variables at play (like the goaltender, the quality of opposition, randomness, etc). Even for goaltenders, save % is considered a really poor stat. Expected goals for and against is what is used as it corrects for shot quality. Demko has the 2nd most expected goals against of any goalie in the league. That means the defence in front of him is doing a poor job of reducing high danger chances... and he is doing a good job of saving them anyways. Here is a comparison of high danger chances against this season 5v5 for some of those D you mentioned. That takes the quality of goaltending out of the equation. The higher the number, the more high danger chances a D is giving up. Myers is 2nd worst on the list defensively. On the other side of the puck he also brings less offensively than a lot of these guys. Myers is 66th in points per game played amongst all D who have played at least 10 games this season. Morrissey, the only guy worse than Myers for poor defensive play is 46th in points per game. Myers 131 (12.46 per 60) Werenski 81 (9.37 per 60) Jones 120 (10.6 per 60) Ellis 56 (8.92 per 60) Giordano 112 (12.38 per 60) Provorov 82 (8.55 per 60) Provorov 82 (8.55 per 60) Faulk 103 (9.41 per 60) Hamilton 91 (10.11 per 60) Slavin 90 (9.91 per 60) Theodore 88 (10.21 per 60) Morrissey 159 (14.87 per 60) Weber 72 (8.37 per 60) Petry 66 (7.58 per 60) Hedman 93 (9.33 per 60) Ekblad 81 (8.67 per 60) Yandle 57 (8.67 per 60) Doughty 103 (9.94 per 60) Also, guess who is at the top of the board for most minor penalties taken? Guess what taking penalties leads to? Does he get a pass for the team getting scored on because he is in the box and the one who created the power play opportunities? Myers has the 2nd most minor penalties of any D in the entire league. Bogosian is the only one who has taken more. Tyler "Minors" is actually his nickname. Beyond few the stats used (which I have shown don't show what you suggest they show), which of the below list would you trade for Myers straight up.... pretty much all of them. I probably don't trade a couple of them because of the term left on their contracts (hey Doughty... looking at you)... but using the reference group of "worst contracts" in the league isn't a reasonable comparison to say Myers isn't actually a bad contract.
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